Wednesday

In today’s newsletter: As Labour braces for heavy local election losses, senior figures ​are signalling unease and​ morale ​is sinking​, can the prime minister hang on?Good morning. Keir Starmer is on thin ice. The prime minister survived a bruising Tuesday in the Commons as MPs continued to scrutinise his account of the decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as US ambassador. Almost all Labour MPs backed Starmer in a key vote on whether he should face an inquiry into whether he misled parliament.But in Westminster there is a growing feeling that the Labour leader is on borrowed time. Next week’s local and parliamentary elections, which Starmer will face as one of the most unpopular prime ministers since records began, is likely to see public dissatisfaction crystallise. “He’s in last chance saloon,” one minister said after last night’s vote.US | King Charles has extolled the importance of Britain’s “special relationship” with the US in a speech to Congress that made pointed reference to the importance of Nato, the defence of Ukraine and the climate crisis.Middle East | Britain is facing a £35bn economic hit and the risk of a recession this year as the fallout from the Iran war adds to the pressure on Keir Starmer’s government, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) has warned.Oil | The UAE has quit the Opec oil cartel after 60 years of membership, in a heavy blow to the group and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, as global energy markets contend with the biggest supply crisis in history.UK news | The chair of NatWest was forced to defend the bank against accusations of “climate backtracking” at a chaotic annual shareholder meeting, which was temporarily suspended owing to singing protesters.Women’s rights | Fifa has given permission for Afghan Women United – a squad composed of refugees scattered around the world in Australia, the Middle East and Europe – to represent Afghanistan in official competitions without requiring the approval of the Taliban, which banned the team. Continue reading...

• US President Donald Trump warned Iran of 'no more Mr Nice Guy' and threatened new strikes if no deal is agreed by Wednesday, following stalled talks over nuclear issues and the Strait of Hormuz. • Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz until the US lifts its blockade, with Revolutionary Guard navy confirming the move amid risks to global oil shipments; 13 US service members killed in related conflict. • Negotiations in Islamabad saw US propose 20-year Iranian nuclear suspension, countered by Iran's 3-5 year halt offer; Tehran reports progress but fundamental gaps remain per speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

• President Trump signals he will not extend Iran's ceasefire deadline if a comprehensive deal is not reached by Wednesday, warning of renewed military action including 'dropping bombs' if negotiations fail. • Trump declares the Strait of Hormuz now open due to a U.S. Navy blockade and pointedly rejects NATO's offer of assistance, highlighting America's unilateral stance in Middle East tensions. • The escalating pressure on Iran represents a significant shift in Trump administration foreign policy and challenges traditional alliance structures in addressing regional security threats.

In today’s newsletter: A Waitrose worker’s dismissal ​after confronting a shoplifter has become a flashpoint in a wider debate over rising retail crimeGood morning. Overnight, the US and Iran agreed to a two-week conditional ceasefire, which included a temporary reopening of the strait of Hormuz. It followed a last-minute diplomatic intervention led by Pakistan, but the Israeli government have said the deal does not include Lebanon.You can read our main report here and our live blog will be tracking news throughout the day. My colleague Martin Belam will have more details on what the pause in the fighting means in tomorrow’s First Edition. Today, we are covering the scourge of shoplifting in the UK.Middle East | Donald Trump said he had agreed to a Pakistani-brokered two-week ceasefire, shortly before a deadline at which he had threatened to end the “whole civilisation” of Iran. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, issued a statement saying: “For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordinating with Iran’s armed forces.”UK news | Millions of graduates will have the interest on their student loans capped at 6% from September as a temporary measure to protect them from the risk of rising inflation driven by war in the Middle East.Entertainment | The Wireless music festival has been cancelled after the artist formerly known as Kanye West was banned from entering the UK amid a deepening political row over his previous antisemitic statements.Politics | Reform UK would stop issuing visas to people from any country that continues to demand compensation from the UK for its role in the transatlantic trade in enslaved people, the party has said.World news | Australia’s most decorated soldier, Ben Roberts-Smith, has not applied for bail and will remain in custody after being charged with war crimes. The former SAS soldier and Victoria Cross-recipient is charged with five counts of “war crime – murder” in relation to alleged offences in Afghanistan between April 2009 and October 2012. Continue reading...

In today’s newsletter: As conflict engulfs Iran, shifting ​global alliances and soaring energy prices are reshaping ​the existing power balances​ that could redefine the next stage of international security Good morning. So far, there is only one clear winner from the war in Iran: Russia. Before the US and Israel attacked Tehran in late February, Moscow was preparing deep budget cuts to education and healthcare funding to pay for its invasion of Ukraine, which has now entered its fifth year.In just over a month of the fighting in Iran, Vladimir Putin’s Russia has experienced a dramatic reversal in fortunes. The global oil price has shot up from a prewar average of $72 to well over $100 per barrel, providing a financial boost of multi-billions for Moscow that shows little sign of ending.Middle East | Donald Trump has launched a tirade against European countries that refused to join his war against Iran, calling out the UK and France.Military | The UK is sending more military support to the Gulf, taking the total deployment to 1,000 troops.NHS England | Some medicines could run out in weeks or even days, NHS England head warns, after supply line shocks.UK politics | Nigel Farage to ‘steer well clear’ of UK CPAC event in July being led by the short-lived former prime minister Liz Truss.UK news | King Charles’s state visit to US to go ahead in late April despite Iran war concerns. Continue reading...

In today’s newsletter: The first woman to hold the position of archbishop of Canterbury arrives at a time of transition with hopes that she can restore the church’s reputationGood morning. At a ceremony later today, Sarah Mullally will be installed as the 106th archbishop of Canterbury. The first woman to take on the role in its near 1,500-year history, she becomes de facto head of the Anglican communion at a difficult and painful moment for the Church of England.Mullally takes over an institution grappling with safeguarding failures, internal division and questions about its place in modern British public life. So what exactly is the job she is stepping into – and how much power does it still carry?Middle East | The US is poised to deploy airborne troops to the Middle East as strikes intensified across the region on Tuesday and Donald Trump claimed the US was in “very good” talks with Iran to end the war.UK politics | Rachel Reeves has ruled out universal support to deal with any future rise in energy bills, saying any government help would be targeted, and criticised the support offered by Liz Truss’s government as unaffordable and irresponsible.Health | The meningitis B vaccination programme will be expanded to include year 11 pupils at schools affected by the outbreak in Kent, health officials have said.Meta | A New Mexico jury has ordered Meta to pay $375m in civil penalties after it found the company misled consumers about the safety of its platforms and enabled harm, including child sexual exploitation, against its users.Environment | Ofcom to investigate climate change denial complaints for the first time since 2017. Continue reading...

PMI figure reveals impact on economy of rise in oil prices driven by Iran warBusiness live – latest updatesThe UK’s manufacturers have suffered the sharpest one-month acceleration in costs since the aftermath of Black Wednesday in 1992, as conflict in the Middle East has driven up oil prices, new survey evidence shows.The closely watched purchasing managers’ index (PMI) lays bare the impact of the conflict on the UK economy, with growth slowing sharply across manufacturing and services and costs rising. Continue reading...

• The Federal Reserve opened a two-day monetary policy meeting this week with a rate decision expected Wednesday, as officials evaluate the impact of surging oil prices and Middle East conflict on inflation trajectories. • Uncertainty around geopolitical fallout is deepening divisions within the central bank over the interest rate path forward; officials are widely expected to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday despite elevated crude prices. • Rising oil and gasoline prices are weighing on earnings estimates and consumer spending forecasts, creating additional complexity for Fed policymakers balancing inflation and growth concerns.