Local Elections

In today’s newsletter: From breakthroughs to breakdowns, what we can expect to see – and what the consequences of the vote could beGood morning. On 7 May, voters in England will go to the polls for a series of local elections, on the same day that Scotland and Wales vote for new governments. It promises to be a torrid time for Keir Starmer and his governing Labour party, with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, Zack Polanski’s Green party and Rhun ap Iorwerth’s Plaid Cymru expected to make breakthroughs.Recent polling, though, suggests that the overall balance between those on the right and those on the left has barely shifted – rather, previously loyal Conservative voters are moving towards Farage’s party, while Labour voters are deserting to other progressive options.Middle East crisis | Donald Trump has threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power stations and fresh water plants if Tehran does not agree to peace terms “shortly”.Israel | Israel’s parliament has passed a law imposing the death penalty on Palestinians convicted of fatal attacks, a measure sharply criticised as discriminatory by European countries and rights groups.BBC | The BBC has sacked the Radio 2 presenter Scott Mills after allegations about his personal conduct. The corporation said that “while we do not comment on matters relating to individuals, we can confirm Scott Mills is no longer contracted and has left the BBC”.Politics | Zack Polanski has kicked off a charm offensive designed to convince trade unions to stop funding Labour and throw their weight behind the Green party, as he delivered the first in a series of speeches to union conferences.Travelodge | A woman who was sexually assaulted by an employee at a Travelodge has said she was shocked to learn the hotel chain’s boss cancelled a meeting with a group of MPs seeking to discuss concerns about the case. Continue reading...

UK PM to chair meeting in Downing Street on how government responds to economic consequences of Iran war later on MondayGood morning. Keir Starmer will today chair a meeting in Downing Street on how the government responds to the economic consequences of the Iran war, which has the potential to upend much of what the government is trying to do to improve living standards. And so he is probably not too happy about the fact that this morning he has to attend an event in the West Midlands launching Labour’s English local elections campaign.It is a relatively low-key launch. “The Westminster press pack wasn’t invited for a full Q&A,” Politico reports. Starmer will be back in London later for his Iran war meeting.We’re going to fight to earn every vote. Fight for our values. And fight for the country we are building together, a Britain built for all.Because, in the context of everything that is happening in the world. Those values – that fairness we stand for – it’s never been more important.We will protect our forces, our people, our allies in the region. But I made the decision that it is not in our national interest to commit British forces to a war, without a clear legal basis and a clear plan – and I stand by that.It’s a question of judgement. Do not forget that the Tories and Reform would have rushed us into this. With no thought of the consequences, including for the cost of living. Utterly reckless. Continue reading...

PM will also cite Iran war as reason to stick with Labour, as party adopts new slogan: ‘Pride in Britain’ Keir Starmer will say that a vote for Reform UK will put at risk progress Labour is making on the cost of living, arguing that Britain’s values are being tested in a volatile world.Launching the party’s local elections campaign with a new slogan: “Pride in Britain”, Starmer will urge voters to stay the course with Labour. A dire set of results are predicted for the party in Wales, Scotland and English councils, especially in the north-east of England and London. Continue reading...

While Labour braces for a rout that could see off Starmer, a rising drive to keep out Farage is complicating expectationsLocal elections are often regarded as a referendum on the sitting government, with many previous administrations taking a bloody nose from the electorate but successfully fighting back by the next general election.Senior Labour figures have taken to reeling off a list of midterm results – 1999, 2003, 2012 – to prove that point. “As we get closer to the general election, it will be less about people’s view of the parties generally and more about the actual choice in front of them,” one said. Continue reading...

Electoral alliances expected to play vital role in number of contests including Paris and MarseilleVoting is under way in France in the second round of local elections – seenas a bellwether for next year’s presidential race – with cities including Paris and Marseille in the balance and both the radical left and far right hoping for gains.Most of France’s 35,000-odd communes elected their councils in the first round last Sunday, but in municipalities where the contest is tighter, including most large urban areas, the second round will be decisive, with electoral alliances playing a key role. Continue reading...

LSE research found some Reform councillors have denied the reality of climate science, and mention of climate has been removed from strategy documentsGood morning. Seven weeks from today, counting will be taking place for the English local elections and, unless the polls are more wrong than they have ever been before, Reform UK will be celebrating record wins. The commentary will focus on the implications for national politics. But councils have significant powers, and a report today says Reform wins in local government could have a significant impact on climate policy.We know that Reform UK are opposed to net zero, and they have pledged to cut green subsidies, but there is still some lack of clarity as to exactly what they would do on climate policy. Some Reform UK figures refuse point-blank to acknowledge that human-made global heating is a reality. Others claim they are just opposed to the pace of transition to renewables. But Nigel Farage, the party leader, has a long history of climate change scepticism.• Seven Reform UK-led councils have “scrapped” their climate targets and climate change denial has been expressed by Reform UK councillors in five councils. Some of these councils have removed content about climate change from strategy documents.• While work related to reducing greenhouse gas emissions continues in these councils, mitigating climate change is no longer explicitly cited as the motivation.In our study we found that ‘scrapping net zero’ is not only a policy position but a signal of a broader retreat from treating climate change as urgent. This takes the form of both delaying action and outright climate change denial. Voters should be aware that this is the case.In the upcoming local elections in May, should Reform UK expand its council base, we can expect further retreat from climate action. The government must be alert to this challenge, given the importance of local authorities to the delivery of national climate goals. Continue reading...

Sharon Graham tells party to ‘wake up and smell the coffee’ after ‘shameful’ handling of Birmingham bin strikeLabour will be “decimated” in the upcoming local elections and should “hang their heads in shame” over the handling of the Birmingham bin strike, Unite’s general secretary has said.In a speech to refuse workers near a waste depot in Tyseley on Thursday, Sharon Graham said working people were moving away from Labour in droves and called on the party to “wake up and smell the coffee”. Continue reading...