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Robert Hayward prevê que o Reform será o grande vencedor, tirando cadeiras tanto do Labour quanto dos Conservatives. Bom dia. Entramos agora na semana final de campanha para o Scottish parliament, Welsh Senedd e as eleições locais inglesas. Keir Starmer planejava um grande discurso hoje, mas ele, e outros líderes políticos, estão hoje focando em sua resposta ao esfaqueamento em Golders Green e na ameaça de antissemitismo enfrentada pela comunidade judaica da Britain – descrita como uma “emergência de segurança nacional” por Jonathan Hall KC, o revisor independente da legislação de terrorismo do governo. Aqui está nossa matéria de ontem à noite. E aqui está nosso blog ao vivo por Taz Ali. Taz cobrirá a maior parte da reação política a essa história e, por isso, isso não será algo que eu cobrirei aqui. (E como processos criminais estão ativos, temo que comentários relacionados ao ataque não serão permitidos abaixo da linha.) Continue lendo...

• Mercados de petróleo em pânico enquanto Donald Trump parece disposto a manter o bloqueio da US Navy e Iran mantém strait of Hormuz praticamente fechado • O preço do petróleo Brent disparou acima de $126 o barril na quarta-feira, seu nível mais alto desde 2022, após Donald Trump alertar que o bloqueio de portos de Iran pelos US pode durar meses e as negociações de paz permaneceram estagnadas • Com uma alta de mais de 13% em 24 horas, Brent crude atingiu um preço recorde desde que a guerra começou em 28 February. O Brent não superava $120 desde a invasion of Ukraine pela Russia em 2022, quando o preço atingiu o pico de $139. Continue lendo...

Ursula von der Leyen later due to meet new Hungarian leader who is seeking to unlock EU funds in return for reformsVon der Leyen says that “every member state has a different energy mix,” so no blanket EU solution would work.But she calls for more coordination not just on common procurement, but also on fuel reserves, “especially jet fuel and diesel, where markets are tightening.”“ Let us use this to make the switch to electricity – not just in transport, but also in industry and heating. This is not only a matter of affordability and competitiveness; this is also a matter of economic security. Thus, speaking of European independence, this is the moment to electrify Europe.”“This is the second energy crisis within four years, and the lesson should be very clear. Our overdependency on imported fossil fuels makes us vulnerable. … We must reduce our overdependency on imported fossil fuels and boost our home-grown, affordable, clean energy supply. From renewables to nuclear, in full respect of technology neutrality.” Continue reading...

Niesr says even under best-case scenario, economy would grow at slower pace in 2026 and 2027 because of conflictBritain is facing a £35bn economic hit and the risk of a recession this year as the fallout from the Iran war adds to the pressure on Keir Starmer’s government, a leading thinktank has warned.The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) said that even under a best-case scenario the UK economy would grow at a much slower pace this year and next because of the Middle East conflict. Continue reading...

Israeli strikes killed 14 people and wounded 37 on Sunday, Lebanon's health ministry said, as the Israeli military warned residents to leave ‌seven towns beyond the "buffer zone" it occupied before a ceasefire that has failed to fully halt hostilities.

Rabbis Charley Baginsky and Josh Levy say criticising Israeli government is not disloyalty but a Jewish obligationThe UK’s most senior progressive rabbis have warned that Israel’s current political direction risks becoming “incompatible with Jewish values”, while insisting that criticism of the country’s government is “a Jewish obligation” rather than an act of disloyalty.Rabbi Charley Baginsky and Rabbi Josh Levy, co-leads of Progressive Judaism – the newly formed movement representing around a third of synagogues in the UK – said Israel’s trajectory could pose an “existential threat” not just to the country itself but to Judaism. Continue reading...

Australia is dependent upon UK’s ability to deliver new submarines, but report finds ‘cracks are already beginning to show’ “Cracks are already beginning to show” in the UK’s funding for the Aukus agreement that could derail the ambitious nuclear submarine plan, a British parliamentary inquiry has found, highlighting a threat to Australia’s security.UK shipbuilding has been under-funded for decades and the country’s submarine availability is “critically low”, the House of Commons defence committee’s report found. Continue reading...