Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh Testifies Before Senate Banking Committee on April 21

• U.S. 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgage averaged 6.187% on April 21, 2026, down 4 basis points from prior day per Optimal Blue data. • 15-year fixed-rate fell to 5.486%, down 5 basis points, with week-over-week drops up to 31 basis points for some types. • Rates reflect FOMC holding federal funds at 3.50%-3.75% in March, with next meeting April 28-29 potentially influencing trends.

• U.S. stock futures fell 0.46% Monday morning as Iran declined to engage in peace talks with the Trump administration, escalating geopolitical tensions. • Oil prices climbed to $95 per barrel, up from $86 three days prior, reflecting market concerns over potential supply disruptions from the Iran conflict. • Despite the geopolitical headwinds, markets have shown resilience with strong corporate earnings growth at 17% annually offsetting valuation pressures.

• The average 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgage rate in the US dropped to 6.230%, down 2 basis points from the prior day and 5 basis points from a week ago. • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.535%, declining 5 basis points daily and 2 basis points weekly, per Optimal Blue data reflecting loans locked as of April 16. • Jumbo 30-year rates fell to 6.528% (down 3 basis points weekly), FHA to 6.060% (down 1), VA to 5.833% (down 5), and USDA to 5.863% (down 10 basis points).

• US stocks demonstrated resilience amid Iran geopolitical tensions and high energy prices, with the S&P 500 up nearly 2% year-to-date by April 14, just 1% below its January 27 all-time high. • The index's maximum drawdown stayed under 10%, cushioned by forward earnings estimates growing at a 17% annual rate despite a 20% drop in P/E ratios. • S&P 500 profit margins hit new highs around 15% in early April, driven by broad fundamentals including AI and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act effects, not just energy sector gains.

• Global financial markets experienced significant volatility during April 12-18, 2026, driven by geopolitical tensions impacting commodity prices. • Oil prices surged higher amid international tensions, affecting energy stocks and broader market sentiment across equities and bonds. • India's retail investor base continues reshaping capital markets, contributing to shifts in the financial landscape alongside global macroeconomic pressures.

• ICICI Bank reported Q4 FY26 net profit of ₹12,949 Cr, surpassing street estimates and bringing annual profit to ₹50,000 Cr milestone. • The bank declared a ₹12 dividend per share, signaling confidence in its financial performance and shareholder returns. • Strong Q4 results reflect robust performance in India's banking sector amid evolving market conditions.

• S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% and the benchmark notched back-to-back record highs as growing speculation that a deal to end the US-Iran war is nearing prompts traders to take on more risk. • The index is on course for a third week of gains exceeding 3%, with the S&P up nearly 8% month to date, marking a stunning reversal following mounting signs of US-Iran deescalation. • The market rally reflects relief over potential resolution of the conflict that has roiled energy markets, with traders increasingly positioning for a ceasefire outcome.

• President Donald Trump is backing Kevin Warsh as his preferred candidate for Federal Reserve chair, intensifying pressure on current Fed Chair Jerome Powell amid ongoing policy disagreements. • Republican Senator Kevin Cramer discussed the timeline for the CLARITY Act and Trump's strategy to reshape Federal Reserve leadership during an appearance on 'Mornings with Maria.'

• President Trump expressed optimism that an Iran peace deal is 'looking very good,' signaling potential near-term resolution to the US-Iran conflict that has destabilized financial markets. • Investors are actively weighing the likelihood and terms of a potential Iran truce as a key variable influencing near-term market direction and energy price trajectories. • Geopolitical risk premiums embedded in oil prices and equity valuations could face significant repricing if a comprehensive ceasefire agreement is formally announced.

• Stocks surged following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz amid a 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire and President Donald Trump's blockade measures, signaling reduced energy supply constraints. • The market reaction reflects investor optimism over improved shipping lanes and normalized energy flows, with financial commentators attributing the gains to Trump's diplomatic efforts. • The reopening of this critical global shipping chokepoint addresses a major source of market volatility tied to Middle East tensions.

• Netflix reported earnings that missed analyst estimates, yet broader market indices maintained record highs as investor focus remained on Iran ceasefire developments and energy market normalization. • The streaming giant's earnings disappointment was overshadowed by positive sentiment around geopolitical deescalation and reduced energy price pressures benefiting the wider market. • Market participants are weighing mixed corporate earnings results against macro-level improvements in global risk sentiment and supply chain stability.