East Conflict

• South Korea’s Kospi led an Asian market upturn, soaring 5.68% to 7,131.43, driven primarily by a rally in technology stocks. • Other regional markets saw mixed results, with Japan’s Nikkei rising 1.71% to 67,364.56 and China's SSEC advancing 0.24%, while Hong Kong’s HSI dipped 0.40% to 25,032.24. • The growth was supported by a surge in Japanese exports, though investors remain cautious while monitoring ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

Kuwait says civilian sites and infrastructure targeted, Jordan downs missiles and sirens sound in Bahrain as Iran responds to US strikesIran launched a wave of attacks against US allies in the Middle East, as the renewal of US strikes on Iran entered a second week and fighting escalated over the strait of Hormuz.Kuwait has accused Iran of targeting civilian sites and vital infrastructure in the country, such as a power and water desalination plant. Kuwait, which is extremely arid, relies on desalinated water for about 90% of its drinking water. Continue reading...

• European stock markets declined as investors reacted to a broader global selloff in technology shares and escalating tensions in the Middle East. • The downturn is driven by a combination of volatility in the tech sector and geopolitical instability, which has increased market uncertainty. • This trend reflects growing investor anxiety over potential economic disruptions and the impact of regional conflicts on global trade and stability.

• The European Central Bank (ECB) is monitoring the conflict involving Iran to assess potential indirect price pressures and inflation risks. • Despite current geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty, policymakers report that the eurozone economy has remained resilient. • The ECB currently sees no immediate inflation fallout, but continues to track the situation to determine if market volatility will impact price stability.

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Wednesday that renewed geopolitical conflict in the Middle East would negatively impact global economic growth and increase inflation. • This warning follows an announcement by President Donald Trump that the U.S. ceasefire and peace process with Iran has officially ended. • The situation is critical because instability in the region often disrupts energy markets, potentially leading to higher oil prices and broader financial volatility.

• Central banks are reassessing their interest rate trajectories following military confrontations between the United States, Israel, and Iran. • Despite a fragile ceasefire, policymakers are concerned that inflationary pressures are proving more persistent than previously forecasted. • While energy prices have retreated from their peak levels, they remain highly vulnerable to further geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East.

• U.N. experts report that all parties involved in the conflict in eastern Congo are currently violating established peace terms. • The report highlights that these factions are committing widespread abuses, exacerbating a region already plagued by instability. • The U.N. has characterized the situation as one of the most protracted, complex, and serious humanitarian crises on Earth.

• The ongoing conflict between Israel and the US-Iran axis has disrupted oil and gas supplies across the Middle East. • These disruptions are driving energy price increases, which may lead to higher inflation and reduced GDP growth within the UK. • The severity of the economic shock depends largely on overseas geopolitical decisions and the resulting stability of global energy markets.

• Mastercard's Cyber Pulse Report 2026 reveals a 13% overall increase in cyberattacks across Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EEMEA) over the past year. • The report highlights a dramatic 198% spike in cyber threats specifically triggered by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. • This surge is attributed to the involvement of state-linked actors and the deployment of increasingly sophisticated attack methods, creating a more volatile digital landscape.

• Asia-Pacific stock markets climbed significantly following signals from Donald Trump regarding a potential peace deal to resolve conflicts in the Middle East. • Major indices saw substantial gains, including South Korea’s KOSPI soaring 7.79% to 8,369.10, Australia’s ASX 200 rising 1.95% to 8,801.50, and China's SSEC surging 1.31% to 4,039.26. • The rally reflects a positive investor reaction to the prospect of easing geopolitical tensions, which typically reduces market volatility and risk.

Israeli military says it intercepted missiles from Lebanon this morning while Netanyahu says his forces will continue operating in the south of the countryTrump says Hezbollah and Israel have agreed to ‘stop all shooting’Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s continuing coverage of the crisis in the Middle East.Donald Trump has hailed an agreement to de-escalate the fighting in Lebanon, which has killed thousands of people and inflamed tensions in the broader US-Israeli war with Iran.Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) threatened to open “new fronts” and keep the strait of Hormuz closed over Israel’s offensive in Lebanon, state media reported. “Iran considers crossing the red lines in Lebanon and Gaza to mean direct war,” state TV quoted the IRGC’ intelligence organisation as saying.The ceasefire already in place between Iran and the US is unequivocally a ceasefire on all fronts, including in Lebanon, Iran’s top diplomat said yesterday after Netanyahu ordered attacks on the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut. “Violation on one front is a violation of the ceasefire on all fronts. The US and Israel are responsible for the consequences of any violation,” foreign minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X.US secretary of state Marco Rubio will face questions at Congress today for the first time since the Iran war began. He will testify before House and Senate committees on the state department’s 2027 budget request, where he is expected to face questions about Trump’s war efforts and shifting diplomatic goals.Oil prices jumped and equities slid as Middle East peace talks stumbled and tensions mounted between Iran and the US. Crude futures shot more than 5% higher yesterday as an Iranian news agency announced Tehran had suspended the negotiations with the US via mediators, AFP reported.US forces intercepted two Iranian ballistic missiles targeting American forces based in Kuwait late on Sunday, the US military said yesterday. No American personnel were harmed, it added. Continue reading...

Federal court case of classical pianist who alleges Melbourne Symphony Orchestra unlawfully discriminated due to his views beginsThe judge hearing the case of a classical pianist who alleges the Melbourne Symphony Orchestra unlawfully discriminated against him because of his views on Israeli forces killing Palestianian journalists says the matter will not be a “roving inquiry” over conflict in the Middle East.Pianist Jayson Gillham is suing the MSO over a cancelled Melbourne concert he was contracted to perform on 15 August 2024, a cancellation which he claims was an attempt to silence him over his stance on the Gaza conflict. Continue reading...

• The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has driven up oil prices, expected to slow US economic growth compared to a no-conflict baseline scenario, according to Deloitte analysis. • Despite pressures from elevated energy costs, US firms are unlikely to materially reduce investment plans due to resilient growth in AI and technology sectors. • Higher oil prices will affect US consumers through increased costs, though broader economic resilience from AI investments may mitigate some impacts.

Saudi Arabia’s state oil company’s profits up 26% to £26.9bn in first three months of yearBusiness live – latest updatesSaudi Arabia’s state oil company reported a 26% jump in profits in its first quarter as its east-west pipeline allowed it to ship millions of barrels of oil out of the Gulf despite conflict in the Middle East.Profits at Saudi Aramco hit $33.6bn (£26.9bn) in the first three months of the year, while revenue rose nearly 7% compared with a year earlier to $115.5bn. Continue reading...

• Singapore has completed a comprehensive review of its political salary framework but deferred any final decision citing impacts from the ongoing Middle East conflict. • The announcement was made by Minister Chan Chun Sing, highlighting caution amid global economic uncertainties affecting the city-state's finances. • This deferral reflects Singapore's policy of linking political remuneration to economic performance and national circumstances during crises.

• India's manufacturing PMI increased to 54.7 in April from 53.9 in March, indicating continued expansion in the sector despite external headwinds. • The uptick reflects strong demand and production growth, though inflationary pressures have intensified due to ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions affecting commodity prices. • A PMI above 50 signals economic expansion, and the improvement suggests Indian manufacturers are maintaining resilience in production activity and order books.

Rise of 3% in April, the fastest annual pace in 11 months, leaves typical property worth £278,880, says NationwideBusiness live – latest updatesHouse price growth in the UK has surprised estate agents and economists by jumping in April at the fastest annual pace in 11 months, according to Nationwide.The UK’s biggest building society said its mortgage data showed that house prices unexpectedly rose by 3% in April on a year earlier, from 2.2% in March, leaving the typical UK property worth £278,880. Continue reading...

The Israeli military began carrying out strikes in eastern Lebanon on Monday, expanding the scope of its bombing campaign during a ceasefire that has failed to fully halt hostilities with Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.

Average price dips back below £300,000 after higher energy costs have knock-on effect on mortgage ratesUK house prices fell in March, as the housing market lost momentum amid uncertainty over the conflict in the Middle East and the impact on the economy and interest rates.Figures from Halifax, which is part of Lloyds – Britain’s biggest mortgage lender – showed property prices dipped by 0.5% in March compared with a month earlier. As a result, the average price of a home slipped back below £300,000, to £299,677, after first crossing the milestone in January. Continue reading...

Anutin Charnvirakul warns country is vulnerable over reliance on oil imports as countries across Asia introduce conservation measuresThailand’s prime minister, Anutin Charnvirakul, has called on the public to conserve energy, urging work-from-home measures and carpooling, as he warned of the impact of the conflict in the Middle East.In a statement posted on social media, Anutin said Thailand was exposed to the crisis because of its reliance on imported oil and gas, and the country could not be complacent. Continue reading...

Archbishop of Canterbury to issue urgent call for peace, as PM exhorts Britons to ‘choose community over division’Religious and political leaders in the UK are highlighting the conflict in the Middle East in their Easter messages, calling for “peace, justice and freedom” in the region.The archbishop of Canterbury will deliver her first Easter sermon at Canterbury Cathedral on Sunday as the Church of England’s top bishop. Dame Sarah Mullally will call “with renewed urgency” for peace in the Middle East and pray for “an end to the violence and destruction” in the region. Continue reading...

Biggest rises were in vegetable oil and sugar prices, which increased by 5% and 7% respectivelyVisual guide to the Gulf fertiliser blockadeFood prices rose sharply in March as war in the Middle East drove up energy prices and freight costs around the world, a UN report says.An index of food commodity prices by the UN’s food and agriculture organisation increased by 2.4% in March, its second consecutive monthly rise. Continue reading...

‘Ukraine has expertise concerning sea waterways, and the defence and reopening of maritime traffic,’ says president. What we know on day 1,500Volodymyr Zelenskyy offered on Thursday to provide Ukraine’s expertise in dealing with freedom of navigation in the Black Sea to those countries considering how to keep the strait of Hormuz open amid the conflict in the Middle East. The Ukraine president, speaking in his nightly video address, said the foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, had taken part in a virtual meeting devoted to reopening the strait of Hormuz, attended by about 40 countries. “Ukraine has relevant expertise concerning sea waterways, and the defence and reopening of maritime traffic,” he said. “If [our] partners are ready to act, we will consider how we can strengthen them, how we can apply our expertise, knowledge and technological potential.”Russia’s army recorded no territorial gains on the frontline in Ukraine in March, for the first time in two and half years, AFP analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) showed. The Russian army’s advances have been slowing since late 2025 due to Kyiv’s localised breakthroughs in the south-east, and losing ground in March and February on the southern section of the frontline, between the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions, the analysis showed. Across the entire frontline, Ukrainian forces managed to recapture 9 sq km in March.North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, gave “field guidance” at the Memorial Museum of Combat Feats at the Overseas Military Operations, which is under construction , state media KCNA said. The museum in Pyongyang will be a place to commemorate the fallen soldiers sent to support the Russian army in the war in Ukraine. The construction of the museum is almost complete and Kim said the opening ceremony would be held in mid-April, marking the first anniversary of the deployment of the North Korean soldiers.Six Ukrainian children will be returned from Russia to their families in Ukraine, the White House said on Thursday, citing efforts by Melania Trump to expedite their return. A seventh Ukrainian child will also be returned to their family later this month, the first lady’s office said in a statement. Ukraine says almost 20,000 children have been illegally sent to Russia and Belarus, where they are sometimes subject to military training and forced to fight against their own country’s troops.Russian strikes across Ukraine on Thursday killed at least two people and wounded dozens, officials said, as Moscow stepped up its attacks amid stalled peace talks. In the south-eastern Kherson region, Russia attacked “with artillery, mortars and UAVs”, the regional prosecutor’s office said on social media. A 42-year-old man was killed when a drone hit a civilian car, and 16 others – including a teenage boy and three police officers – were wounded in air attacks and artillery shelling, it added. In the Chernihiv region, north of the capital Kyiv, Russia attacked with a ballistic missile, the head of Chernihiv’s military administration, Dmytro Bryzhynsky, said on Telegram.Russian forces maintained a daylong barrage of drone strikes on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, on Thursday, injuring at least two people, local officials said. Kharkiv’s mayor, Ihor Terekhov, posted reports on Telegram throughout the day and well into the evening, noting strikes in four city districts. One city official said there had been at least 20 drone strikes. He said some had triggered fires and two people had been injured in an evening attack, including an eight-year-old girl.Russian forces carried out 129 attacks on Ukrainian gas and heating facilities during the recent 151-day heating season, the state oil and gas firm Naftogaz said on Thursday. “The Russians hit pipelines, gas production, underground storage facilities, heating systems – everything that Ukrainians depend on for heat and gas,” it said in a statement. Continue reading...

Australian treasurer says Iran war having ‘extreme impact on global economy’ as Albanese to address nation about fuel crisis Follow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastJim Chalmers has unveiled a suite of Covid-era support measures including tax deferrals for businesses struggling with soaring fuel prices, in the latest sign the government is preparing for a more severe economic downturn from the US-Israel war on Iran.Addressing the media on Wednesday morning, the treasurer said “the war in the Middle East is having an extreme impact on the global economy, [and[ Australians and Australian small businesses are paying the price for that”. Continue reading...

Washington-based fund says rising energy and food costs will hit economies worldwide and could leave lasting scarsThe International Monetary Fund has warned that “all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth worldwide” should the conflict in the Middle East continue to throttle the amount of oil, gas and fertiliser making its way out of the Gulf.In a stark message that countries on all continents will be affected, the Washington-based organisation said a rise in energy and food costs would harm economic growth this year and could leave lasting scars on the global economy. Continue reading...

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development says UK economy will grow by just 0.7% this yearThe conflict in the Middle East will damage the UK’s economy more than any other industrialised nation, according to analysis by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which warned over rising inflation.In the first major assessment by a leading international thinktank of the economic impact from the attack on Iran, the OECD said the UK economy would grow by just 0.7% this year, compared with its last forecast, made in December, of 1.2% for 2026. Continue reading...

UK clothing and homeware retailer working on assumption that war could last three monthsBusiness live – latest updatesNext has warned that the war in the Middle East will add £15m to its costs on the assumption it will last three months, adding that prices will have to go up if the conflict persists beyond that.The UK clothing and homeware retailer said it was currently offsetting the additional costs on fuel and air freight with savings elsewhere and it did not expect any affect on profits for the year ahead. Continue reading...

• The Trump administration submitted a 15-point ceasefire proposal to Iran on March 25, with details including dismantling of Iranian nuclear capabilities and Iran's commitment never to pursue nuclear weapons, according to Israeli media reports. • President Trump stated the US is in contact with "the right" Iranian interlocutors and that Iran wants to make a deal "so badly," while approximately 290 US service members have been wounded since Operation Epic Fury began against Iran. • The diplomatic initiative has sparked market optimism, with oil prices falling more than 3% and Asian shares gaining on de-escalation hopes, though Iran's military dismissed Washington as not being in a position to negotiate.