Fiscal

Chancellor appointment and early policies avoid market meltdown but next week remains ‘moment of real peril’UK politics live – latest updatesAndy Burnham has not quite gone for Keir Starmer’s extreme caution in the run-up to entering No 10 – but he is certainly aware that any early wrong moves would cost him.Back in 2024, Starmer was criticised for his “Ming vase” strategy, where the leader treads very carefully so as not to drop a valuable metaphorical piece of china being carried across the room. Continue reading...

• Wharton expert Courtney Wiegand explains the relationship between the Congressional budget process and financial market responses. • The analysis highlights how equity markets react more positively when the "discount rate channel" is muted, allowing the boost to expected corporate cash flows to drive prices. • This research matters because it helps investors and practitioners navigate asset price volatility within an increasingly complex and polarized fiscal environment.

Economists including Jim O’Neill write an open letter calling for a single levy to replace six major taxesProminent economists including Andy Burnham ally Jim O’Neill, are urging him to pursue radical tax and spending reform, to “unlock the gridlock that plagues the country”.O’Neill joins Jonathan Portes, economics professor at Kings College London, and Danny Sriskandarajah, chief executive of the New Economics Foundation, in calling for bold action in an open letter. Continue reading...

• The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) issued a warning in its 2026 report regarding a potential AI bubble burst and escalating risks within private credit markets. • The report highlights concerns over the rapid growth of debt-funded capital expenditures (capex) used to build AI infrastructure. • This trend is significant as it could trigger a systemic credit event, potentially fueling inflation and exacerbating existing fiscal instabilities.

• Major Wall Street banks warn that Andy Burnham is likely to break Rachel Reeves’s fiscal rules regarding government borrowing if he becomes prime minister. • Oxford Economics reports that the cost of UK government borrowing has risen at the fastest pace in Europe following Mr. Burnham’s recent by-election victory. • This financial volatility, combined with a potential leadership contest against Sir Keir Starmer, may severely limit Burnham's ability to develop and implement detailed policy plans.

• The European Audiovisual Observatory released a study on May 29, 2026, analyzing the impact of tax credits, cash rebates, and tax shelters on audiovisual production. • The report maps the legal frameworks governing these incentives, including the UNESCO Convention on the Diversity of Cultural Expressions and EU state aid law under Article 107(1) of the TFEU. • This research is critical as fiscal incentives have become primary drivers in determining where and how films and series are financed and filmed globally.

• The European Audiovisual Observatory held a panel at the Marché du Film to analyze how public funding and fiscal incentives are evolving amid declining cinema admissions and SVoD growth. • Key regional updates include Italy introducing stricter transparency rules for tax credits, Spain seeing a 33.6% drop in foreign film investment in 2024, and the UK launching a £380 million Creative Industries Sector Plan. • These shifts highlight the critical role of state aid in maintaining the competitiveness of the European audiovisual sector against global market pressures.

• A European Audiovisual Observatory panel at the Marché du Film in Cannes on May 21, 2026, analyzed the current state of fiscal incentives and cash rebates in European cinema. • The discussion highlighted diverse national strategies, including Italy's use of project caps and tax credits, and Portugal's enhanced incentive rates for sustainable "green" productions. • Experts noted significant regulatory differences, such as the UK's BFI cultural certification requirements and France's distinct provisions for domestic versus international independent producers.

Bookies’ favourite to replace Keir Starmer tones down stance on government borrowing to assuage City investorsUK politics live – latest updatesAndy Burnham has always faced a narrow path to replace Keir Starmer as prime minister: a tricky byelection, a leadership contest that is yet to be declared, and a far from constructive bond market backdrop.In making his pitch, assuaging City investors in particular has led the Greater Manchester mayor to dance on a pin. Continue reading...

Lord committee says chancellor and recent predecessors have allowed themselves too little room for manoeuvreBusiness live – latest updatesRachel Reeves should aim to run a “significantly larger” buffer against her fiscal rules, according to a report from a House of Lords committee that says the UK’s public debt is on an unsustainable trajectory.The chancellor raised taxes at last year’s budget in order to more than double the “headroom”, or buffer, against her fiscal rules to £22bn – some of which is expected to be eroded by the impact of the Iran war. Continue reading...

• Pakistan secured a $6 billion IMF bailout package on Monday after the International Monetary Fund approved a revised structural adjustment program focused on tax increases and subsidy reductions. • The agreement requires Islamabad to implement value-added tax increases and privatize state-owned enterprises within the next 18 months, measures intended to stabilize the country's external account deficit. • The U.S. welcomed the agreement, with Treasury officials noting that Pakistan's fiscal stabilization is important for regional economic security and counterterrorism financing oversight.

• The White House released a sequestration order for Fiscal Year 2027 under Section 251A of the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act. • The order enforces automatic spending cuts across federal budgets to address deficit concerns amid ongoing fiscal debates. • It impacts discretionary spending in defense and non-defense categories, potentially affecting thousands of programs.

• Senators introduced the Fiscal Commission Act mirroring House version to create commission recommending fiscal health policies. • Commission aims to tackle rising U.S. debt through targeted policy proposals amid ongoing budget concerns. • Bill provides structured approach for bipartisan fiscal reforms without specifying exact recommendations upfront.

• Comtech Telecommunications Corp., a U.S.-based provider of satellite, NG911, and cloud-native tech, will release Q2 fiscal 2026 results after market close on March 16, 2026. • Leadership will host a conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET, with live webcast on comtech.com and dial-in options including (800) 225-9448. • Replay available through March 30 via (800) 839-1198, covering operations, trends in mission-critical communications for government and commercial clients.