ZB Futures Outlook: Long Bond Squeezed Between Fiscal Supply and Sticky Inflation
• The 30-year Treasury bond futures market has declined throughout the year as investors demand higher yields to hold long-duration government debt. • Persistent inflation and elevated oil prices, driven by a six-month conflict between the U.S. and Iran, are putting upward pressure on bond yields. • Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh faces internal division between "hawks" advocating for rate hikes and those urging patience due to a softening labor market.
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