Fiscal

• Major Wall Street banks warn that Andy Burnham is likely to break Rachel Reeves’s fiscal rules regarding government borrowing if he becomes prime minister. • Oxford Economics reports that the cost of UK government borrowing has risen at the fastest pace in Europe following Mr. Burnham’s recent by-election victory. • This financial volatility, combined with a potential leadership contest against Sir Keir Starmer, may severely limit Burnham's ability to develop and implement detailed policy plans.

• The European Audiovisual Observatory held a panel at the Marché du Film to analyze how public funding and fiscal incentives are evolving amid declining cinema admissions and SVoD growth. • Key regional updates include Italy introducing stricter transparency rules for tax credits, Spain seeing a 33.6% drop in foreign film investment in 2024, and the UK launching a £380 million Creative Industries Sector Plan. • These shifts highlight the critical role of state aid in maintaining the competitiveness of the European audiovisual sector against global market pressures.

• The European Audiovisual Observatory released a study on May 29, 2026, analyzing the impact of tax credits, cash rebates, and tax shelters on audiovisual production. • The report maps the legal frameworks governing these incentives, including the UNESCO Convention on the Diversity of Cultural Expressions and EU state aid law under Article 107(1) of the TFEU. • This research is critical as fiscal incentives have become primary drivers in determining where and how films and series are financed and filmed globally.

• A European Audiovisual Observatory panel at the Marché du Film in Cannes on May 21, 2026, analyzed the current state of fiscal incentives and cash rebates in European cinema. • The discussion highlighted diverse national strategies, including Italy's use of project caps and tax credits, and Portugal's enhanced incentive rates for sustainable "green" productions. • Experts noted significant regulatory differences, such as the UK's BFI cultural certification requirements and France's distinct provisions for domestic versus international independent producers.

Bookies’ favourite to replace Keir Starmer tones down stance on government borrowing to assuage City investorsUK politics live – latest updatesAndy Burnham has always faced a narrow path to replace Keir Starmer as prime minister: a tricky byelection, a leadership contest that is yet to be declared, and a far from constructive bond market backdrop.In making his pitch, assuaging City investors in particular has led the Greater Manchester mayor to dance on a pin. Continue reading...

Lord committee says chancellor and recent predecessors have allowed themselves too little room for manoeuvreBusiness live – latest updatesRachel Reeves should aim to run a “significantly larger” buffer against her fiscal rules, according to a report from a House of Lords committee that says the UK’s public debt is on an unsustainable trajectory.The chancellor raised taxes at last year’s budget in order to more than double the “headroom”, or buffer, against her fiscal rules to £22bn – some of which is expected to be eroded by the impact of the Iran war. Continue reading...

• Pakistan secured a $6 billion IMF bailout package on Monday after the International Monetary Fund approved a revised structural adjustment program focused on tax increases and subsidy reductions. • The agreement requires Islamabad to implement value-added tax increases and privatize state-owned enterprises within the next 18 months, measures intended to stabilize the country's external account deficit. • The U.S. welcomed the agreement, with Treasury officials noting that Pakistan's fiscal stabilization is important for regional economic security and counterterrorism financing oversight.