Fomc

• The Federal Reserve's June 16-17, 2026, FOMC minutes highlight how ongoing conflict in the Middle East is negatively impacting global economic activity. • Key pressures include rising energy costs and declining consumer and business confidence, specifically affecting Europe and lower-income Asian economies. • Foreign headline inflation has surged due to sharp increases in retail energy and producer prices across these regions.

• Investors are shifting focus to a lighter US economic calendar following the recent payrolls report, though global events remain active. • Key market catalysts for the week include the release of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) data and the publication of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. • Market participants are closely monitoring scheduled speeches from Federal Reserve officials to gauge future interest rate trajectories and monetary policy shifts.

• Investors are shifting capital away from AI and technology stocks toward healthcare and defensive sectors due to concerns over high valuations and infrastructure spending sustainability. • The FOMC will release meeting minutes on Wednesday at 2:00pm, offering the first look at policy deliberations under Chair Kevin Warsh since his May 15 appointment. • Economic health will be assessed via Monday's Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing indices, while earnings from PepsiCo (Thursday) and Delta Air Lines (Friday) will test consumer demand.

• The Indian Rupee (INR) opened marginally lower against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the trading week. • This currency fluctuation occurs as markets prepare for the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. • The movement is significant as investors gauge potential shifts in US monetary policy, which typically influences emerging market currencies like the rupee.

• New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh presided over his first FOMC meeting, where the committee unanimously decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%. • The decision comes as inflation has reached 4.2%, prompting Warsh to issue a clear pledge to prioritize price stability over political pressure for rate cuts. • Despite inflation concerns, the U.S. economy shows strength with the S&P 500 hitting record highs, strong jobs reports, and continued investment in artificial intelligence.

• Central banks are expected to dominate the global economic agenda this coming week, overshadowing news regarding AI and Iran. • Key US economic indicators will be under scrutiny, with a primary focus on the release of May retail sales data. • Investors are closely monitoring the first FOMC meeting featuring Kevin Warsh, alongside the formal signing of the Iran deal.