Goldman

• Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast for India's 2026 Current Account Deficit (CAD) to 1.3% of GDP. • The revision is driven by India's reduced vulnerability to crude oil price hikes, attributed to lower oil intensity and improved energy efficiency. • This shift suggests that India's oil demand has become more responsive to price increases, potentially stabilizing the economy against global energy volatility.

• Goldman Sachs highlights that while investors focus on AI winners like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon, investment banks are becoming the "hidden toll booth" of the boom. • As hyperscalers and infrastructure providers require billions or trillions of dollars in funding, banks are essential for structuring, syndicating, and distributing new debt and equity. • This shift matters because it moves the financial opportunity from the technology creators to the financial intermediaries managing the massive capital flows.

• Goldman Sachs reported on Tuesday, June 3, that private infrastructure and real estate capital will increasingly fund the rapid expansion of AI data centers. • This shift occurs as companies move away from traditional financing methods to meet the massive capital demands of AI infrastructure. • The trend is significant because it diversifies the funding sources available to support the ongoing AI-driven technology boom.

• AI is expected to drive data center power consumption up 175% by 2030, creating unprecedented grid shortages that have pushed electricity prices higher across the country and compelled tech companies to seek alternative power sources. • Google's deal to power a new Minnesota data center blends wind and solar with a 30 gigawatt-hour battery from Form Energy, while the U.S. is expected to have nearly 65 gigawatts of battery storage capacity by year-end. • Dozens of startups including Amperesand, DG Matrix, Heron Power, Camus, GridBeyond, and Texture are developing power conversion and grid management technologies to address the critical energy shortage.

Goldman Sachs increased its 12-month US recession probability to 25% from 20% and pushed back expected Federal Reserve rate cuts from earlier timelines to September and December. This adjustment reflects growing caution amid recent market volatility and economic data, with major indices like the S&P 500 down only 8% from highs but signaling broader concerns. The change aligns with rising odds of just one or no rate cuts at 40% each, driven by oil price pressures. Markets await further indicators next week for policy shifts.