Indicators

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the Official Cash Rate steady at 2.25% during its most recent meeting in late May. • This marks the third consecutive meeting where rates remained unchanged, following a split decision among board members. • Governor Breman cast the deciding vote to maintain the current rate, signaling a cautious approach to monetary policy.

• The European Union recorded a seasonally adjusted current account surplus of €113.4 billion in the first quarter of 2026. • This figure represents 2.4% of GDP, marking an increase from the fourth quarter of 2025, which saw a surplus of €99.2 billion (2.1% of GDP). • The data indicates a growing positive balance in the EU's international trade and financial transactions compared to previous quarters.

• The Indian government released new economic indicators on July 2, highlighting the resilience of the national economy despite ongoing global uncertainties and geopolitical tensions in West Asia. • Key growth drivers include a 10.9% year-on-year increase in e-way bill generation for May, signaling robust trade, logistics activity, and a sustained movement of goods. • Easing prices for crude oil and fertilizers have mitigated temporary global energy pressures, supporting the government's fiscal consolidation roadmap for FY 2026–27.

• House prices in the euro area rose by 4.7% during the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period the previous year. • On a broader scale, the European Union saw a slightly higher increase of 5.1% in house prices for the same quarter. • These figures indicate a slight deceleration in growth compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, when prices rose by 5.1% in the euro area and 5.4% in the EU.

• The Supreme Court ruled on President Donald Trump's attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, a decision that could redefine presidential authority over the central bank. • This ruling is significant as it may reshape how economic policy is managed and the level of independence the Federal Reserve maintains from executive interference. • Separately, Nobel laureate Robert Shiller addressed the impact of AI on the labor market, stating that while fears of job displacement are warranted, they should be tempered.

• Eurostat's flash estimate indicates that annual inflation in the Euro area is expected to drop to 2.8% in June 2026, down from 3.2% in May. • Energy remains the highest driver of inflation at an expected 8.7%, though this is a decrease from 10.8% in the previous month. • Other key components also showed declines, with services falling to 3.2% and food, alcohol, and tobacco dropping to 1.6%.

• The House of Commons Library is tracking financial market indicators, including share prices, oil, and gold, to assess the overall health of the economy. • The FTSE-100, which monitors the 100 largest companies on the London Stock Exchange, experienced a sharp decline in 2020 due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. • On March 23, 2020, the index closed at 4,994, marking its lowest point since October 2011.