Economic

• The World Economic Forum (WEF) warns that the global economy is shifting from globalization toward geo-economic fragmentation. • A full economic decoupling between Eastern and Western powers could result in a massive loss of up to $6.9 trillion from global GDP. • This potential divide is expected to impact the world economy significantly during the 2025-26 period.

• Europe is experiencing a severe heatwave with temperatures soaring to 40°C in several regions, placing immense strain on healthcare systems and infrastructure. • France has reported nearly 1,000 excess deaths attributed to the relentless heat, highlighting the critical public health impact of the extreme weather. • Current forecasts indicate varying conditions across the continent, with scorching heat persisting in Italy and Spain, while the Netherlands remains pleasantly warm.

• Europe is currently experiencing a record-breaking and deadly heatwave, with unprecedented temperatures reported across France, the UK, and several other nations. • The severity of the event is driven by a combination of intense heat and high humidity, which poses a significant health threat to vulnerable populations. • Experts attribute the unusual timing and intensity of this heatwave to climate change, which is making such extreme weather events more frequent.

• DBS Bank reports that the global AI "arms race" is triggering a multi-year capital expenditure supercycle estimated to reach $1 trillion. • While semiconductors were the initial focus, the investment surge is now expanding into energy, networking, data centers, and general infrastructure. • This shift is driven by the rise of sovereign AI investments and an escalating demand for power to support massive computing needs.

• India's stock market is facing a potential crisis as a severe "Super El Niño" threatens the monsoon season, following a decade-low start to rainfall. • The weather phenomenon is particularly concerning because 56% of India's GDP is tied to consumption, which relies heavily on agricultural stability. • Analysts warn that rainfall deficits exceeding previous El Niño years could lead to domestic demand destruction and downgrades in consumer-focused sectors.

• Global financial firms are shifting their Asia-Pacific expansion focus toward South Korea, according to a recent survey conducted by ASIFMA and KPMG. • This strategic pivot is driven by South Korea's regulatory clarity, stable policy environment, and emerging capital market opportunities. • Conversely, firms are adopting a more cautious stance regarding investments in China and India due to operational challenges and geopolitical risks.

• Microsoft shares are on track for their worst monthly performance since 2000, plummeting 17% in June. • The decline has erased approximately $570 billion in market value, driven by investor anxiety over massive AI capital expenditures and delayed financial returns. • Market sentiment was further dampened by weaker-than-expected growth in the Azure cloud platform and a high outlook for future spending.