Likely

YouGov polling reveals support for prospective challenger, with members believing Starmer could not secure another victory Unemployment in the UK has unexpectedly risen to 5% while wage growth has slowed, according to official figures, in the first snapshot of how companies are reacting to the impact of the Iran war, Tom Knowles reports.Good morning. A week ago, at cabinet, Keir Starmer delivered a “put up or shut up” message to his critics. Wes Streeting, his leading opponent, decided to do neither – declining to launch a leadership bid, but going public with his lack of confidence in the PM and resigning. And then Andy Burnham found a potential seat, meaning that, if Burnham can win the byelection, a leadership challenge has not been averted, just postponed.Labour members would rather have Burnham than Starmer as leader. Here are the figures when members were asked to rank eight possible candidates. Continue reading...

Former David Cameron adviser says a vote for him will make California ‘Califordable’ – not everyone is convinced He “knows how to wind people up like Trump”, according to friends, and made his name in the UK with zany policy ideas including making the country sunnier using state-owned cloud busters.Now the controversial strategist Steve Hilton, named the “pint-sized Rasputin” of Conservative politics, has become an unlikely frontrunner in the primary race for California governor. Continue reading...

Polls suggest Reform could win most seats in Senedd election but party is unlikely to be able to form governmentUK politics live – latest updatesOn a sunny but cold evening in a shopping centre car park on the outskirts of Merthyr Tydfil, Reform UK supporters enjoyed free pizza and loud music as they waited for what the party leader, Nigel Farage, said was his last big speech before Thursday’s Welsh Senedd, Scottish parliament and English local elections.Reform could win the most seats under Wales’s new more proportional voting system but it is unlikely to be able to form a government, as other parties have ruled out going into coalition with it. Yet Farage’s outfit is the first rightwing party with a shot at winning in Wales since the 1850s. The surge in support for a party that got 1% of the vote in the last Senedd election is impossible to ignore. Continue reading...

In-depth study also reveals patients from black African and Caribbean backgrounds are less likely to receive timely carePeople from black backgrounds in England are twice as likely to experience strokes as their white counterparts, while also being less likely to receive timely care, according to the largest study of its kind.The study, conducted by researchers at King’s College London and presented at the European Stroke Organisation conference, analysed 30 years of stroke incidents from the South London Stroke Register, one of the longest-running population-based stroke registers in the world. Continue reading...

Treasurer tells Commonwealth Bank podcast that he aims to ‘recognise the decisions that people have taken in the past’Follow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastExisting property investors look set to avoid paying more tax under Labor’s mooted changes to CGT in next month’s budget, after Jim Chalmers said he wanted to “make sure that we recognise the decisions that people have taken in the past” and flagged any reforms would not generate “a huge amount of revenue”.The treasurer is widely expected to modify the flat 50% tax discount on profits from the sale of assets held for more than one year, potentially returning to the pre-1999 model where capital gains are adjusted for inflation. Continue reading...

Matthew Pennycook says ending system must be done slowly to avoid hitting housing supply and legal pitfallsA ban on new leasehold properties in England and Wales is unlikely to come into force until after the next election, the housing minister has said, as he defended the government’s piecemeal attempts to dismantle the system.The long-promised end would take years to “switch on”, Matthew Pennycook said, even though the ban of leaseholds on new houses was passed in 2024 and the government intends to pass one on new flats soon. Continue reading...

Exclusive: Cambridge research finds socioenvironmental stressors may influence body’s ability to function healthily in pregnancyStress from racism and deprivation could explain why black women are more likely to die during childbirth, a study has found.Researchers reviewed 44 existing studies that examined three physiological pathways associated with worse pregnancy outcomes: oxidative stress, inflammation, and uteroplacental vascular resistance, and found black women had higher levels of the three metrics. Continue reading...

Researchers find ‘alarming’ effect on fertility across global species from simultaneous exposuresSimultaneous exposure to toxic chemicals and climate change’s impacts likely generates an additive or synergistic effect that increases reproductive harm, and may contribute to the broad global drop in fertility, new peer-reviewed research finds.The review of scientific literature considers how endocrine-disrupting chemicals, often found in plastic, coupled with climate change’s effects, such as heat stress, are each linked to reductions in fertility and fecundity across global species – including in humans, wildlife and invertebrates. Continue reading...

Trump and first lady were safely evacuated and police arrested Cole Tomas Allen of southern California at eventThe gunman who tried to breach the ballroom at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner in Washington DC on Saturday night is believed to have been targeting members of the Trump administration, the acting US attorney general, Todd Blanche, said on Sunday morning.Blanche also said officials believe that the suspect traveled by train from California to Chicago and then on to Washington, where he checked in as a guest at the hotel where one of the capital’s glitziest annual events was being held, the Washington Hilton. Continue reading...

Demographic also overrepresented when police officers use force such as handcuffs, firearms or Tasers, says children’s commissionerBlack children across England and Wales are almost eight times more likely to be strip-searched by police than their white counterparts, a report has disclosed.Rachel de Souza, the children’s commissioner for England, said Black children are also overrepresented when officers use force and were more likely to have their “size, gender or build” cited as justification. Continue reading...

The US president rejects extending truce as Tehran warns of response and negotiators head to IslamabadSign up for the Breaking News US email to get newsletter alerts in your inboxDonald Trump said on Tuesday that he expects to resume bombing Iran, as a fragile 14-day ceasefire approaches its deadline Wednesday with no deal in sight.“I expect to be bombing because I think that’s a better attitude to go in with,” Trump told CNBC’s Squawk Box. “We’re ready to go. The military is raring to go.” Continue reading...

What Magyar’s victory means for EU and Hungary Europe live – latest updatesThere is huge relief in Brussels that the EU will no longer be blocked and mocked by Orbán, but there are diplomatic obstacles to overcomeIn Brussels, the relief was palpable after the defeat of Viktor Orbán, the EU leader who recently declared himself at Vladimir Putin’s service. For the EU, Péter Magyar’s victory was all the sweeter, as voters decisively rejected Orbán’s fear-mongering campaign that sought to portray him in cahoots with the “dangerous” European Commission leader, Ursula von der Leyen, and the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.In 16 years as Hungary’s prime minister, Orbán has slowed, opposed, mocked or blocked numerous EU decisions – above all on European support for Ukraine. Continue reading...

Trump has upped the stridency and threatening nature of his complaints, but the US and Europe need each otherCollateral damage is a universally acknowledged hazard of war – more commonly known for its impact on truth and non-combatant civilians.Its consequences are much less frequently visited on military alliances. Continue reading...

Former Ukrainian major general says 4kg of material found in Serbia was attempt to influence Hungary’s electionHungary elections explainerThe amount of explosives discovered in Serbia last week would not have been enough to destroy the Balkan Stream gas pipeline, prompting an expert to conclude it was probably a Russian intelligence plot aimed at influencing Hungary’s impending election.A former Ukrainian major general and a munitions specialist told the Guardian calculations made by his company showed the 4kg of explosives recovered by Serbia’s military security agency in Kanjiža could not have seriously ruptured the pipe. Continue reading...

Thinktank says algorithms are fuelling isolation and division after analysing posts shown to social media usersReform UK voters are the least likely to see posts from friends and family on social media and most likely to see content from brands and news organisations, a study has found.The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) thinktank said algorithms were fuelling isolation and division after its research analysing users’ feeds on Instagram, Facebook, X, Bluesky and TikTok found that only 13% of Reform UK voters saw content from someone they knew, compared with 23% of Green party voters. Continue reading...

Alarm among military observers after president says ‘whole civilization will die tonight’ if Iran ignores demandsUS politics live – latest updatesSign up for the Breaking News US newsletter emailDonald Trump’s Tuesday morning comments threatening that “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again” in Iran have raised alarms among military observers and retired officers, who called them “likely war crimes”.“I have to hope that this is bluster, and a negotiating tactic on his part,” said retired admiral Michael Smith, who commanded a carrier strike group in the US navy. “He must understand that those types of threats themselves are likely war crimes.” Continue reading...

US supreme court files brief order vacating lower court ruling that had upheld rightwing media host’s conviction Sign up for the Breaking News US email to get newsletter alerts in your inboxSteve Bannon, the rightwing media host and ally of Donald Trump, appears likely to have his criminal conviction dismissed.The US supreme court filed a brief order on Monday that vacated a lower court ruling that had upheld Bannon’s conviction and sent the case back to the US court of appeals for the DC circuit for “further consideration in light of the pending motion to dismiss the indictment”. The Trump administration had moved to dismiss Bannon’s conviction. Continue reading...

Research for TUC analyses link between job quality and economic inactivity, as UK youth unemployment risesYoung people in the UK are more likely to leave their job for health reasons and become economically inactive when they work in insecure, low-paid sectors, a study has found.Research carried out for the Trades Union Congress by the consultancy Timewise charts a connection between the jobs young people are most likely to do – in hospitality, retail and care, for example – and the proportion of people leaving work because of ill health. Continue reading...

• The Minnesota Vikings are expected to exercise the fifth-year option on wide receiver Jordan Addison's rookie contract, according to sources, keeping the playmaker under team control. • Addison has demonstrated solid on-field production for the Vikings, though he has faced three legal incidents including two traffic violations and a dismissed trespassing charge in Florida. • The decision comes after the Vikings lost wide receiver Jalen Nailor in free agency, making Addison's retention strategically important for the team's receiving corps.

Simon Roberts says Easter shop will be unaffected by Middle East conflict, but industry warns prices may rise this yearShoppers will not see food prices rise until at least the summer and Easter will be unaffected by conflict in the Middle East, the boss of Sainsbury’s has said, despite fears of an inflation spike.Simon Roberts said it was “too early” to say whether and when food price inflation related to higher commodity costs would hit supermarket shelves and that the UK’s second-largest supermarket had long-term agreements with suppliers to help protect shoppers. Continue reading...

• A Quinnipiac poll of 1,397 US adults conducted in mid-March reveals that a majority of Americans believe AI will harm them, with concerns intensifying as tech companies invest heavily in AI infrastructure. • Seventy percent of Americans think AI advancements will reduce job opportunities—14% more than last year—while only 7% believe AI will increase jobs; nearly two-thirds worry AI will worsen education. • A slight majority of Americans oppose military use of AI to select targets, with only 36% supporting the practice, reflecting growing unease about autonomous weapons systems.

‘There is no doubt that the cells and tissues of the oral cavity, the mouth and the lungs are altered by inhalation from e-cigarettes,’ academic saysGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastVaping is likely to cause lung and oral cancer, researchers have found, as they urged regulators to act now rather than wait decades for a definitive level of risk.Cancer researchers led by UNSW in Sydney analysed reviews of evidence from animal studies, human case reports and laboratory research published between 2017 and 2025, in one of the most detailed assessments to date of whether nicotine e-cigarettes could cause cancer. Continue reading...

Mikhail Khodorkovsky says Russian security services may seek to create a ‘sense of vulnerability’ in BritainVladimir Putin is likely to stage another Salisbury-style attack on UK soil unless the government adopts more aggressive tactics against the Kremlin, the exiled Russian billionaire Mikhail Khodorkovsky has said.The former oil tycoon has emerged as a leading figure in Russian diaspora opposition circles and claims to be well-informed about current thinking and developments among Moscow’s elite. Continue reading...

Secretary of state Marco Rubio repeats administration’s belief that US can achieve its aims without a ground warAmid tentative White House efforts at diplomacy to end the war in Iran, US troops have also been arriving in the region to deliver what Donald Trump has hoped could be a knockout blow if he can’t negotiate a ceasefire with Tehran.Thousands of US marines aboard navy amphibious ships from the 31st and 11th expeditionary units have been deployed to the Middle East from Asia. Another 2,000-odd paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne are also being sent to the theatre – they are tasked with deploying worldwide within 18 hours of notification and execute parachute assaults, including against a “defended airfield” to prepare for further ground operations. Continue reading...

Writer looked to topics such as computer engineering and life in a nursing home to produce richly researched booksTracy Kidder, an award-winning narrative nonfiction writer who turned everything from computer engineering to life in a nursing home into unexpected bestsellers, has died. He was 80.Kidder’s longtime publisher Random House confirmed his death in a statement on Wednesday: “Tracy’s gifts for storytelling and tireless reporting are an enduring reflection of the empathy, integrity, and endless curiosity he brought to everything he did.” Continue reading...

Diplomats say US president’s latest claimed plan probably based on now outdated framework put forward in May 2025Middle East crisis – live updatesThe 15-point framework plan for peace with Iran that Donald Trump has said is being discussed is based on a proposal put forward by his negotiating team during nuclear talks almost a year ago, diplomats with knowledge of the talks believe.That original 15-point plan was the basis for negotiations in late May 2025, shortly before the talks collapsed due to Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear programme. Continue reading...

In today’s newsletter: Our diplomatic editor on how global instability feeds into conflict in so many parts of the world, and whether the threshold for a major global war has been metGood morning. The world is at war. From the trenches of eastern Ukraine to the missile-streaked skies of the Gulf, a growing proportion of humanity is living under the horror of conflict. For some observers, there are gnawing fears that the worst is yet to come. The apparent collapse of the rules-based international order, the irrelevance of institutions designed to uphold it, and the interconnectedness of the fighting have sparked warnings that we could be at the beginning of a third world war. Indeed, half of Britons polled in a recent YouGov survey thought world war three was likely in the next five to 10 years.On Monday, Donald Trump stepped back from deepening the US and Israel’s war with Iran, announcing that he would postpone military strikes on Iranian power plants for a five-day period after “very good and productive conversations” about the end to the fighting. Iran denied this version of events, claiming Trump had been scared off by their threats of attacks on water infrastructure in the Gulf. But, despite calmer stock markets and a sharp drop in the oil price, there is little sign that the fighting is near an end.Middle East | The Israeli military said it had launched a new wave of strikes on Tehran, after Donald Trump signalled a pause in US attacks against energy infrastructure after what he said were productive talks with Iran.UK Politics | Ministers are looking at providing support for household bills next winter, Keir Starmer said, as he suggested the energy price shock unleashed by the Iran conflict could continue for months to come.London | Security agencies are investigating whether a group linked to Iran is behind an arson attack on four ambulances belonging to a Jewish charity in north London.Climate crisis | More countries will face critical food insecurity if world heats up by 2C, analysis shows.New York | The pilot and co-pilot of an Air Canada Express regional jet have been killed after it collided with a fire truck while landing at New York’s LaGuardia airport. Continue reading...

Former BBC presenter says production company Wonderhood did not check facts with him firstHuw Edwards has criticised Channel 5 for failing to “check with me the truth” before running a drama depicting his downfall.The former BBC presenter was suspended from his role as a leading news anchor in 2023 after a report in the Sun that he had allegedly paid a teenager £35,000 for intimate images and conversations. Continue reading...