Likely

• Two new studies by World Weather Attribution indicate that human-caused climate change significantly increased the likelihood of extreme fire weather and infernos in Spain and France. • The international collaboration of scientists analyzed the events to determine the specific fingerprints of climate change on these devastating wildfires. • These findings matter as they highlight the growing link between global warming and the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in Europe.

• Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is presiding over his second meeting, where the central bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold. • Despite the likely status quo, Warsh is anticipated to face strong dissension from other officials regarding the Fed's monetary policy direction. • Market analysts suggest a hawkish tilt could cause the S&P to fluctuate between a 0.25% rise and a 0.5% drop depending on the Fed's rhetoric.

• Manchester City is preparing for an upcoming preseason tour of Asia with a squad that is expected to be stronger than initially anticipated. • While early expectations suggested a youth-focused roster, the team is balancing its lineup against the needs of 19 players who recently competed in the World Cup. • This selection process is critical as key players from the FA Cup and Carabao Cup-winning sides are currently on mandatory rest and recuperation.

• A majority of Americans support significant political reforms, including the implementation of term limits, campaign spending caps, and changes to the Electoral College. • These initiatives would likely require formal amendments to the U.S. Constitution, which is widely regarded as one of the most difficult governing documents in the world to change. • Some states are attempting to bypass the amendment process by forming interstate compacts to tie electoral votes to the nationwide popular vote.

• Global markets this week will be primarily driven by the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, crude oil price fluctuations, and ongoing developments regarding the West Asia conflict. • In India, investors are specifically monitoring the release of June Industrial Production (IIP) data to gauge domestic economic health. • Quarterly corporate earnings reports will also play a critical role in shaping investor sentiment and market volatility.

Lawyers predict ‘more suppression and no active investigations’ but victims’ groups determined to continue fightAs Donald Trump’s former defense lawyer Todd Blanche appears poised for confirmation as attorney general, numerous Jeffrey Epstein survivors have sounded the alarm that a US justice department helmed by him would derail their pursuit of justice.In a letter urging Republican senators Thom Tillis and John Cornyn to reject his nomination, these survivors said that Blanche’s handling of the Epstein case as acting attorney general was characterized by misstep after misstep. Continue reading...

• S&P Global is scheduled to release the July flash Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) for the United States this Friday. • These surveys gather data from top private-sector executives to provide an early indicator of the nation's overall economic health. • The indices are critical for anticipating trends in GDP, inflation, employment, and industrial production, with a reading above 50 signaling economic expansion.