Long Term

• Global economic indicators show a mixed landscape, with negative PMIs reported in China, positive data from Korea, and rising growth in Canada. • US economic data has cooled, but bond markets are signaling concern as the US 10-year Treasury yield reaches 4.75%. • Market fluctuations are evident across commodities and currencies, with gold prices dipping and the New Zealand dollar trading at 58.9 US cents.

• Rohit Sarin of Client Associates has updated his market outlook, upgrading his stance on mid-cap stocks to "overweight" and small-caps to "neutral." • The assessment favors sectors aligned with India's domestic growth story, specifically highlighting banking and financial services as key areas for potential earnings growth. • These sectors are expected to perform well due to resilient asset quality, improving credit growth, and strong domestic inflows.

• Rohit Sarin of Client Associates has upgraded his market stance, moving mid-caps to "overweight" and small-caps to "neutral." • Sarin suggests a potential 10% market rally is possible, though it remains contingent on the evolution of geopolitical tensions in West Asia. • The outlook is supported by resilient domestic fundamentals, including strong economic activity, steady institutional inflows, and attractive large-cap valuations.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted more than 1,100 points and long-term U.S. bond yields surged after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged. • Internal division was revealed within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as three of the 12 members had preferred a quarter-point rate hike during the meeting. • Fed official Kevin Warsh suggested that while forward guidance is crucial during financial crises, the approach should be revisited during more stable economic periods.

• Safe Superintelligence Inc. (SSI), founded by Ilya Sutskever, and NVIDIA have announced a long-term strategic partnership to accelerate SSI's growth. • The collaboration involves technical development of NVIDIA’s current and future compute platforms, utilizing SSI’s specialized research into robustly aligned AI. • NVIDIA entered the agreement after gaining rare access to SSI’s closely guarded research, which has been developed quietly over the last two years.

• The Indian government is proposing a 2026 bill to introduce faster trials and longer jail terms for those involved in paper leaks. • This legislative move aims to counter protests by the CJP and Congress, who are demanding the resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan. • The bill seeks to assuage a growing youth movement by strengthening legal penalties and streamlining the judicial process compared to the 2024 law.

A ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ suggests need for large-scale movement of populations away from reshaped coastUp to 13 million people in the UK face the long-term risk of coastal flooding due to the climate crisis, scientists have warned, with a “reasonable worst-case scenario” suggesting the need for the large-scale movement of populations away from a dramatically reshaped coast.Even if today’s global pledges to cut carbon pollution are met, about 1.4 million more people will be exposed to coastal floods in 2200 and 1.7 million in 2300 due to the sea level rise driven by melting ice caps and warming oceans. Continue reading...