Middle

• Tensions have escalated between the U.S. and Iran as both nations vie for control of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global energy supplies. • The conflict has manifested in a series of recent attacks, threatening the stability of international oil shipments and maritime security. • This geopolitical struggle matters because disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz can lead to significant spikes in global energy prices and economic instability.

• Wall Street is entering a critical week as investors prepare for a combination of corporate earnings reports and key inflation data releases. • Market participants are closely monitoring Federal Reserve commentary and economic figures to determine the future direction of interest rates and monetary policy. • Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a primary concern, posing potential risks to global energy supplies and market stability.

US military says it hit dozens of Iranian sites in strikes on Monday while UN chief warns that a return to full-scale fighting would be ‘catastrophic’US launches new attack wave on Iran as Tehran says diplomacy has proven ‘futile’In a series of social media posts this morning, Oman’s interior ministry said sirens were being activated and urged residents to head to the nearest safe place and await further instructions.As we mentioned in the opening post, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said earlier that it had attacked radar systems in Oman as part of its counter strikes against the US. Continue reading...

• Kate Middleton attended the closing of Wimbledon 2026 on July 13, 2026. • The Princess of Wales wore an elegant sage green dress designed by Emilia Wickstead for the event. • Her appearance marks a high-profile conclusion to the prestigious tennis tournament, blending sports and royal fashion.

Iran has sought to establish a permanent system for collecting fees in the strait of Hormuz and warned vessels not to sail without its authorisationThe US and Iran have again exchanged heavy missile and drone assaults, with Tehran targeting US facilities in states across the Gulf and saying it had again closed the vital strait of Hormuz.The US military ⁠began launching more strikes against Iran at 5 pm ET on Sunday, US Central Command said in a statement, “to continue degrading their ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships freely transiting the strait of Hormuz.” Continue reading...

• Wall Street investors are preparing for a critical week focused on upcoming consumer and wholesale inflation data to gauge the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. • Market participants will monitor key economic indicators, including retail sales, industrial production data, and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, alongside major bank earnings. • These reports are vital for determining the central bank's outlook on economic growth and potential interest rate decisions.

• Iran has launched attacks against several Gulf countries, including Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and the UAE, following new military strikes by the United States. • In a significant escalation of the Middle East crisis, Tehran has announced its intention to close the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. • Separately, the sudden death of South Carolina Senator Graham, who has served in the Senate since 2003, is expected to cause major political shockwaves in Washington.

Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and the UAE reportedly came under attack as Tehran says it is closing Strait of HormuzIndia’s foreign ministry has condemned an attack on the commercial vessel – GFS Galaxy – off the coast of Oman earlier today.It said 10 of the 11 Indian nationals on board have been rescued, while one remains missing.The continuing incidents of attacks on commercial shipping in the region are deeply worrisome. We reiterate our call for immediate de-escalation of tensions, and the conclusion of ongoing negotiations for a diplomatic solution so that peace and stability can return to the region. The targeting of commercial shipping and civilian infrastructure in the region must end, and free and unimpeded navigation and commerce through the international waterways in the region, in keeping with international law, must be restored at the earliest.We have taken control of the strait of Hormuz with power, and we will preserve it with power as well. Continue reading...

• Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po reported that bilateral trade between Hong Kong and the Middle East surged by 35% during the first five months of 2026. • This growth is attributed to the deepening of strategic ties across several key sectors, including finance, trade, innovation and technology (I&T), and culture. • The increase signifies a growing trend of Gulf capital flowing into Asia, strengthening Hong Kong's role as a financial gateway.

• Stock futures rose and oil prices declined as global markets largely ignored the latest round of airstrikes in the Middle East. • Investors appear to have accepted the current geopolitical instability as a "new status quo," treating the ongoing conflict as an uneasy equilibrium. • The trend suggests that market participants are now factoring regional volatility into their asset allocations rather than reacting with panic.

• European stock markets rebounded on Thursday, led by a recovery in technology shares driven by renewed demand for artificial intelligence. • The recovery follows the STOXX 600's steepest one-day decline since March, which was triggered by geopolitical instability and U.S. military strikes on Iran. • Spanish equities outperformed regional peers with a 0.9% rise, while oil prices eased despite ongoing tensions following President Trump's statement that negotiations with Tehran had ended.

• Iran has reportedly launched missiles toward Jordan, with Jordanian officials confirming they intercepted the incoming projectiles. • While Iranian media reports blasts, the US military has not yet confirmed any new attacks in the region. • The escalating tension threatens the stability of existing Iran-US agreements and increases the risk of a broader Middle East conflict.

• German scholars argue that a commitment to international law is a strategic necessity for "middle powers" with limited global influence to maintain a stable international order. • The authors highlight a contradictory application of legal standards, noting the failure to enforce law during the Ukraine war and the prioritization of Israel's protection over humanitarian law in Gaza. • Critics claim that international law ignores "Realpolitik" and hinders efforts to punish regimes like Iran or prevent nuclear proliferation.

Interim truce looks increasingly precarious as Iran carried out retaliatory strikes on US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and QatarHello and welcome to the Guardian’s coverage of the continuing crisis in the Middle East.Iran was pummelled with a volley of missiles for a second consecutive night, with the US military claiming to have struck 170 Iranian targets in the last 48 hours. Continue reading...

• Iran has launched strikes against U.S. military infrastructure in the Middle East following a series of American attacks. • The U.S. military targeted Iranian assets to degrade their capacity to threaten freedom of navigation within the strategic Strait of Hormuz. • This escalation highlights a struggle for political leverage, as Iran seeks to maintain control over the strait to prevent traffic from shifting toward Oman.

Iranian state media report explosions in several locations hours after Donald Trump threatened further military action at Nato summitIran’s IRNA is reporting power cuts in Chabahar after reports of explosions from the area.Tonight’s strikes come 24 hours after the US had launched strikes on more than 80 Iranian targets around the strait of Hormuz and revoked a temporary sanctions waiver for Tehran to export oil after Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels on Tuesday. Continue reading...

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Wednesday that renewed geopolitical conflict in the Middle East would negatively impact global economic growth and increase inflation. • This warning follows an announcement by President Donald Trump that the U.S. ceasefire and peace process with Iran has officially ended. • The situation is critical because instability in the region often disrupts energy markets, potentially leading to higher oil prices and broader financial volatility.

• US stock futures declined on July 8, with the S&P 500 falling 0.8% and both the Dow Jones and Nasdaq futures dropping 1%. • The market downturn is driven by rising crude oil prices and heightened geopolitical instability following US strikes on Iran. • This shift in sentiment reflects investor anxiety over escalating conflict in the Middle East and its potential impact on global energy costs.

• The FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indexes declined following a broad selloff in UK equities. • The slide was triggered by renewed tensions in the Middle East, which drove up crude oil prices. • While the overall market fell, energy stocks outperformed other sectors due to the rising cost of oil.

Holiday operator says market in good shape, with strong recent recovery in bookings across all destinations as customers take the plungeBusiness live – latest updatesSummer holiday bookings have bounced back recently after the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East, the package holiday operator Jet2 has said.The company, which flies about 20 million people every year, said its summer bookings are up by 7.1% compared with this time last year and the average load factor – which measures its available seating capacity filled with paying passengers – is up 1.2 percentage points. Continue reading...

• European shares declined on Wednesday, driven by renewed tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices that dampened investor sentiment. • The losses were most significant within the airline, banking, and automotive sectors, while technology stocks showed mixed results due to concerns over the AI-driven rally. • Despite the general downturn, select technology companies and the Swedish broadband provider Bahnhof managed to outperform the broader market.

• Stock futures remained relatively flat as investors balanced geopolitical instability in the Middle East with anticipation of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes. • Market caution increased following the U.S. launch of a "series of powerful strikes" against Iran on Tuesday evening, which subsequently impacted oil prices. • Analysis from Parker suggests that technology will be the primary driver of growth, accounting for nearly 60% of S&P 500 earnings expansion over the next two years.

• Central banks are reassessing their interest rate trajectories following military confrontations between the United States, Israel, and Iran. • Despite a fragile ceasefire, policymakers are concerned that inflationary pressures are proving more persistent than previously forecasted. • While energy prices have retreated from their peak levels, they remain highly vulnerable to further geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East.

• The Körber-Stiftung has released the 2026 Emerging Middle Powers Report, analyzing geopolitical perspectives from Indonesia, Brazil, India, South Africa, and Germany. • The report identifies shared common ground in foreign policy approaches among these five diverse nations despite their distinct regional and political differences. • This analysis matters as it highlights how middle powers are navigating global tensions and seeking collaborative strategies to maintain influence.

• A weak June labor report has shifted market sentiment, reducing the likelihood of further interest rate hikes and challenging the previously hawkish economic narrative. • Middle market lenders are seeing a reviving sponsor pipeline, which is critical for driving new-money originations and increasing M&A activity. • This shift allows direct-lending funds to better absorb significant amounts of "dry powder" through acquisition financing, unitranche facilities, and revolver commitments.

Millions join funeral procession in capital of Tehran to mourn Khamenei who was kiled in US-Israel airstrikes in FebruaryGood morning, and welcome to the Middle East live blog.Today marks the start of a mass funeral procession for Iran’s former supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. Continue reading...

• Voters in Johor will head to the polls on July 11, with Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional competing across all 56 state constituencies to form the next state government. • The election is viewed as a critical test for the partners in the current federal government as they face off in a head-to-head battle for regional control. • Bank Negara Malaysia will announce its Overnight Policy Rate decision this Thursday following the Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

• Pakistan urged the UN Security Council to prioritize diplomacy and de-escalation to prevent a wider conflict in the Middle East following Iranian attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait. • Islamabad officially condemned the strikes and expressed its firm support for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. • The Pakistani government warned that continued fighting would exacerbate the existing humanitarian crisis in the region.