• The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has driven up oil prices, expected to slow US economic growth compared to a no-conflict baseline scenario, according to Deloitte analysis.
• Despite pressures from elevated energy costs, US firms are unlikely to materially reduce investment plans due to resilient growth in AI and technology sectors.
• Higher oil prices will affect US consumers through increased costs, though broader economic resilience from AI investments may mitigate some impacts.
• A failed peace proposal over the weekend propelled oil prices and 10-year Treasury yields higher on Monday morning, with equity futures opening modestly lower.
• Markets shrugged off geopolitical risks last week as oil declined on Iran ceasefire comments, but renewed tensions reversed that trend amid global energy volatility.
• Gas prices rose nationwide, complicating inflation outlook with headline CPI above 3.5% despite easing core PCE, dimming Fed rate cut prospects.
US president says Tehran’s peace proposal ‘totally unacceptable’ and ‘a piece of garbage’We are restarting our live coverage of the US-Israeli war on Iran after Donald Trump said the ceasefire was “on life support” after rejecting Tehran’s peace proposal, calling it “totally unacceptable”.Referring to the ceasefire in force since 7 April, Trump said: “I would call it the weakest, right now, after reading that piece of garbage they sent us – I didn’t even finish reading it. Continue reading...
• Saudi Arabia issued a "vehement condemnation" of coordinated drone attacks targeting the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Kuwait on May 11, characterizing the strikes as a dangerous escalation threatening regional security.
• Bahrain's Ministry of Foreign Affairs called the Kuwait attack a "flagrant violation of international law" and emphasized the threat to regional stability posed by the hostile drone strikes.
• The attacks signal a dangerous broadening of the Middle East conflict, with multiple Gulf Cooperation Council members targeted simultaneously, raising concerns about maritime trade and oil infrastructure vulnerabilities.
US president calls Iranian response ‘totally unacceptable’ while Tehran says it will retaliate against any new US strikes or foreign warships in strait of HormuzTrump calls Iran’s response to peace plan ‘totally unacceptable’ as ceasefire fraysThe US parameters for nuclear talks reportedly included a moratorium on Iranian nuclear enrichment for up to 20 years; the transfer overseas, possibly to the US, of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU), which could be used to make nuclear warheads; and the dismantling of Iranian nuclear facilities.According to the Wall Street Journal, the Iranian counter-proposal suggested a shorter moratorium, the export of part of the HEU stockpile and the dilution of the rest, and refusal to accept the dismantling of facilities. Continue reading...
• The 48th ASEAN Summit concluded on Friday, May 8, with leaders proposing a regional fuel stockpile and standby food security mechanism to counter supply disruptions from Middle East conflicts.
• Measures target impacts from Strait of Hormuz closure, which threatens fuel and fertiliser supplies critical to Southeast Asia.
• Leaders agreed to a crisis communication protocol for foreign ministers to enable coherent, timely regional responses across multiple sectors.
Saudi Arabia’s state oil company’s profits up 26% to £26.9bn in first three months of yearBusiness live – latest updatesSaudi Arabia’s state oil company reported a 26% jump in profits in its first quarter as its east-west pipeline allowed it to ship millions of barrels of oil out of the Gulf despite conflict in the Middle East.Profits at Saudi Aramco hit $33.6bn (£26.9bn) in the first three months of the year, while revenue rose nearly 7% compared with a year earlier to $115.5bn. Continue reading...
Revolutionary Guard issue warning as Trump awaits Iran’s response to Washington’s latest proposal for peace dealIran’s Revolutionary Guard has threatened to target US sites in the Middle East if its tankers come under fire, Iranian media reported on Saturday, as Washington was left waiting for Tehran’s response to its latest negotiating position.“Any attack on Iranian tankers and commercial vessels will result in a heavy attack on one of the American centres in the region and enemy ships,” the force said, a day after US strikes on two Iranian tankers in the Gulf of Oman. Continue reading...
The US said it carried out strikes on Iranian military targets after an attack on three American destroyers in the strait of HormuzMorning, and welcome to the Guardian’s Middle East live blog.The US said it carried out strikes on Iranian military targets after an attack on three American destroyers in the strait of Hormuz, while Tehran accused Washington of striking first. The exchange of fire threatens to unravel a fragile ceasefire in effect since 8 April – but Donald Trump insisted the truce remains intact. Continue reading...
• Asian stock markets retreated from recent record peaks as escalating Middle East tensions revived concerns over crude oil supply disruptions and energy price stability.
• The geopolitical escalation triggered steep losses in oil markets, reversing earlier gains and creating volatility across regional equity indices.
• Rising energy supply concerns underscore the fragility of the recent market rally despite strong AI sector performance, with investors reassessing risk exposure to conflict-affected regions.
State can meet fuel demand for next six weeks with its current supply, its energy commission vice-chair said. Plus, alleged Jeffrey Epstein suicide note unsealed by federal judgeGood morning.Gas prices have risen above $6 in California – but there is yet more uncertainty on the horizon after the last oil tanker from the Middle East arrived in the state this week.What do we know about progress on a deal? Axios reported on Wednesday that Washington and Tehran were close to agreeing on a memorandum of understanding to end the war. Officials in Pakistan told the Guardian that an initial framework could possibly be agreed within 48 hours – but that nothing was certain and talks remained “difficult”.Head to our liveblog for the latest. Continue reading...
The US and Iran have offered conflicting messages over the likelihood of a deal being reached imminentlyMorning and welcome to the Guardian’s continuing coverage of the crisis in the Middle East.The US and Iran have offered conflicting messages over the state of negotiations to end the war, with Donald Trump signalling the talks were “very good” and a deal “very possible”.News of a possible deal followed Trump’s abrupt U-turn on a US military operation to guide ships out of the strait of Hormuz, dubbed “Project Freedom”. Trump said the decision to pause the mission on Tuesday – two days after it was launched – was to give peace a chance, but NBC reported that it was suspended after Saudi Arabia refused to allow the US military to use its bases and airspace to carry out the operation. US officials told the American broadcaster that Gulf allies were caught off guard by the sudden announcement of Project Freedom, and that it had angered the leadership in Saudi Arabia.The Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, told his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, that the US’s behaviour had “deviated the path of diplomacy towards threats, pressure and sanctions” and that Tehran could not trust Washington. In a statement carried by the Iranian state-run Press TV, Pezeshkian said Iran had entered into dialogue with the US twice and “on both occasions, military aggression against Iran took place concurrently with the negotiations. Such behaviour is effectively like ‘stabbing from behind’”.Iran has denied any involvement in damage to a South Korean-operated vessel in the strait of Hormuz, which suffered an explosion and fire on Monday. Trump blamed the incident on an Iranian attack, while South Korea’s foreign ministry said the cause of the fire would only be confirmed after the vessel is inspected. The Iran embassy in Seoul issued a statement this morning rejecting the allegations, saying safe passage through the waterway requires strict adherence to Iranian regulations.The damage and destruction inflicted on US military sites across the Middle East during the war is far larger than what has been publicly acknowledged by the Trump administration or previously reported, according to analysis by the Washington Post. Reviewing satellite imagery, the newspaper found Iranian airstrikes have damaged or destroyed at least 228 US structures or pieces of equipment, including hangars, barracks, fuel depots, aircraft and key radar, communications and air defence equipment. The US Central Command declined to comment on the report.In Lebanon, where a ceasefire has demonstrably failed to stop the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, three people were killed this morning in Israeli strikes on Nabatieh south of the country, according to the official Lebanese National News Agency. The Israeli military said one of its soldiers was seriously injured by an explosive-laden Hezbollah drone in southern Lebanon yesterday. It did not say where the attack took place.In Gaza, where another ceasefire appears to be fraying, an Israeli airstrike has killed Azzam Khalil al-Hayya, the son of Hamas political bureau leader and chief negotiator Khalil al-Hayya, according to senior Hamas official Basim Naim. Azzam succumbed to his injuries this morning after being struck in an Israeli attack last night, Reuters reported. He is the fourth son of Hamas’s exiled Gaza chief to have been killed in Israeli attacks. Continue reading...
• Singapore has completed a comprehensive review of its political salary framework but deferred any final decision citing impacts from the ongoing Middle East conflict.
• The announcement was made by Minister Chan Chun Sing, highlighting caution amid global economic uncertainties affecting the city-state's finances.
• This deferral reflects Singapore's policy of linking political remuneration to economic performance and national circumstances during crises.
With gas more than $6 in state, delivery of some 2m barrels is last planned shipment to pass through strait of HormuzMiddle East crisis – live updatesThe average price of a gallon of gas in California already stands at more than $6, but more uncertainty looms as the last oil tanker headed from the Middle East arrived in the Golden state this week.The Los Angeles Times reported on Sunday that the New Corolla, which left the Middle East for California before the war broke out, is delivering some 2m barrels of crude oil from Iraq to Long Beach. It was the last planned shipment to pass through the strait of Hormuz. Continue reading...
Profits jump to £122m at ticketing retailer but it expects flat or declining revenues over the coming year Business live – latest updatesTrainline has said the US standoff with Iran is hitting its revenues, with rail ticket sales to foreign visitors to Europe affected.The UK-based ticketing retailer said it expected revenues to stay flat or decline over the coming year, citing “the effects of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on inbound air traffic into Europe”. Continue reading...
• Market participants are repositioning portfolios toward companies with strong pricing power and defensive characteristics as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist.
• Artificial intelligence-related equities continue attracting investor attention as a growth hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty.
• The investment rotation reflects concerns about inflation persistence and the need for portfolio resilience in volatile market conditions.
US president says he will briefly pause Project Freedom after just one day; Rubio says US has achieved objectives of Iran operation; Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi flies to ChinaTrump puts ‘Project Freedom’ on hold, saying he hopes to finalise deal with IranIranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi met with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi for talks in Beijing on Wednesday, China’s Xinhua news agency reported, without giving details on the discussion.Iran’s Fars news agency earlier said Araghchi would “discuss bilateral relations and regional and international developments with his Chinese counterpart”.US secretary of state Marco Rubio said the military objectives of so-called “Operation Epic Fury” have concluded and the offensive stage of the war with Iran is “over”. Speaking at the White House press briefing, Rubio insisted that ongoing US military action in the strait of Hormuz is “defensive” in nature and a separate operation, in line with the Trump administration’s argument that it doesn’t need approval from Congress to continue the war against Iran. “There’s no shooting unless we’re shot at first,” he told reporters, urging Iran to “make the sensible choice” and negotiate a deal.With the status of the ceasefire in doubt, Donald Trump declined to say what would constitute a violation, telling reporters only that Iran knows “what not to do”. It comes amid rising tensions after both sides exchanged fire in the strait of Hormuz on Monday. “Well, you’ll find out because I’ll let you know,” the US president said. “They know what to do, or what not to do more importantly.”Before Trump’s announcement on Tuesday evening, his defense secretary Pete Hegseth insisted that “Project Freedom” had allowed the US to gain control of the strait, despite Iran claiming it has actually strengthened its control of the waterway, and thousands of cargo ships remain stranded there. Continue reading...
• UBS, a Switzerland-based global financial firm, has lowered its GDP growth forecast for India in FY27 to 6.2 percent, representing a downward revision of 50 basis points due to intensifying oil crisis triggered by global tensions.
• The Swiss brokerage attributes the slowdown to prolonged energy crisis stemming from Middle East conflict, severe supply chain disruptions, and rising inflation pressures across the Indian economy.
• This downgrade reflects concerns about India's economic resilience amid external shocks, though the 6.2% growth rate still positions India among faster-growing major economies globally.
• India's manufacturing PMI increased to 54.7 in April from 53.9 in March, indicating continued expansion in the sector despite external headwinds.
• The uptick reflects strong demand and production growth, though inflationary pressures have intensified due to ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions affecting commodity prices.
• A PMI above 50 signals economic expansion, and the improvement suggests Indian manufacturers are maintaining resilience in production activity and order books.
US says it has destroyed six small Iranian military boats – which Tehran denies – while Iran launched barrage of attacks on US-allied United Arab EmiratesDonald Trump sends warships to break Iran’s strait of Hormuz blockadeWe are restarting our live coverage of the US-Israeli war on Iran. The US and Iran launched new attacks in the Gulf on Monday as they wrestled for control over the strait of Hormuz amid dual maritime blockades, taking the region back to the brink of full-scale war.The fresh volleys of missiles and drones came after Donald Trump launched a new effort to get stranded tankers and other ships through the vital energy and trade route that has been virtually shut since the US-Israeli war against Iran began in late February.Trump warned that Iran’s forces would be “blown off the face of the earth” if they attacked US vessels trying to reopen a route through the strait. The president announced the US operation – called Project Freedom – on Monday to help hundreds of ships trapped in the Gulf.Centcom chief Adm Brad Cooper declined to say whether he thought the ceasefire with Tehran that begun on 8 April remained in effect amid Iranian attacks in the region but acknowledged Iran’s Revolutionary Guards tried to “interfere” with Trump’s operation.Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said Monday’s events showed there was no military solution to the crisis. He said peace talks were progressing with Pakistan’s mediation and warned the US and the UAE against being drawn into a “quagmire by ill-wishers”.Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Monday that no commercial vessels had crossed the strait in the past few hours, and that US claims to the contrary were false. Iranian state media also denied reports the US had sunk Iranian vessels.The UK and Saudi Arabia both called for de-escalation after Iran’s attacks on the UAE – the first on the US ally since Washington’s ceasefire with Tehran took effect about a month ago.In Oman, two people were injured by an attack on a residential building in Bukha, on the Hormuz strait’s coastline, an Omani state news agency reported.A fire on a South Korean-operated vessel that had an explosion in the Hormuz strait has been extinguished, ship operator HMM said. South Korea’s foreign ministry said all 24 crew on the HMM Namu – including six South Koreans – were unharmed. Trump blamed an Iranian attack.International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that inflation was already picking up and the global economy could face a “much worse outcome” if the war dragged into 2027 and oil prices hit about $125 a barrel. Continue reading...
• Wall Street stocks traded mixed early Monday, May 4, 2026, as rising oil prices from Middle East conflict offset robust US corporate earnings expectations.
• Oil prices edged higher after Iran's military warned it would attack US forces entering the Strait of Hormuz, following President Donald Trump's announcement to guide ships through the waterway.
• Major indices remain near record highs, supported by encouraging inflation data and resilient earnings season, though investors eye the April jobs report.
Trump warns any interference with US operation in Hormuz will ‘have to be dealt with forcefully’ while providing few details about how the plan will workTrump says US navy will ‘guide’ trapped ships from strait of Hormuz amid ‘very positive’ talks with IranA tanker reported being hit by “unknown projectiles” in the strait of Hormuz soon after Donald Trump announced the US would help trapped ships through the waterway.The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency said all crew were reported safe in the incident, which occurred 78 nautical miles north of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates.Iran said on Sunday it had received a US response to its latest offer for peace talks a day after Trump said he would probably reject the Iranian proposal because “they have not paid a big enough price”. Iranian state media reported that Washington had conveyed its response to Iran’s 14-point proposal via Pakistan, and that Tehran was now reviewing it.“At this stage, we do not have nuclear negotiations,” state media quoted Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei as saying, an apparent reference to Iran’s proposal to set aside talks on nuclear issues until after the war has ended and the foes have agreed to lift opposing blockades of Gulf shipping. Iran has been blocking nearly all shipping from the Gulf apart from its own for more than two months. Last month the US imposed its own blockade of ships from Iranian ports.Israel on Sunday ordered thousands of Lebanese people to leave 11 towns and villages in southern Lebanon, an escalation of a war between Israel and Iran’s Hezbollah allies there that has run in parallel to the Iran war and could further complicate wider peace efforts. Continue reading...
• A CNN investigation based on satellite imagery and damage assessments found that Iranian strikes damaged at least 16 U.S. military installations across eight Middle Eastern countries during the conflict.
• Some U.S. military facilities suffered extensive harm classified as operationally unusable or facing difficult repair decisions, suggesting the scale of attacks was far greater than publicly acknowledged.
• The report raises questions about whether the Pentagon has understated both physical damage and the true financial costs of the Iran war, challenging official public accounting of the conflict.
Rise of 3% in April, the fastest annual pace in 11 months, leaves typical property worth £278,880, says NationwideBusiness live – latest updatesHouse price growth in the UK has surprised estate agents and economists by jumping in April at the fastest annual pace in 11 months, according to Nationwide.The UK’s biggest building society said its mortgage data showed that house prices unexpectedly rose by 3% in April on a year earlier, from 2.2% in March, leaving the typical UK property worth £278,880. Continue reading...
• The United States deployed a third aircraft carrier strike group with thousands of elite troops to the Middle East on April 24, marking the largest military buildup since the 2003 Iraq invasion, as the two-month Iran conflict escalates despite a ceasefire agreement.
• President Trump warned the American military was "ready to go" if peace efforts fail, stating the US used the April 8 ceasefire to "restock" military capabilities while Washington and Tehran accuse each other of violations.
• The US bombing campaign launched February 28 has devastated Iran's military infrastructure and leadership, but Tehran maintains control of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil and gas supply route, prompting a US naval blockade imposed April 13.
Defection is damaging to Saudi Arabia’s prestige – and could strengthen the US hand in the regionThe United Arab Emirates’ decision to walk out of Opec is a political as much as business decision, and will reignite the simmering rows between the UAE and Saudi Arabia – which had been covered up by their shared anger with Iran over its attacks on the Gulf states since the start of the US-Israel war on Tehran.In the short term, leaving the oil producing cartel it joined in 1967 gives the UAE the freedom to respond quickly to a long-term prospect of constrained supplies, and to maximise profit. But it is a decision the UAE has considered before, as UAE and Saudi tensions over production quotas have been longstanding. Continue reading...
The regional bloc agreed to safeguard regional energy security through strengthened cooperation, timely policy responses and engagement with dialogue partners.
Climate group calls for urgent windfall tax on excess fossil fuel profits, as delegates tell Colombia conference their nations are sufferingThe Middle East oil and gas crunch will impose as much as a trillion dollars of additional costs on the global economy while petroleum companies rake in spectacular profits from elevated fuel prices, analysis has revealed.The uneven distribution of risk and reward comes amid rising concern that the US-Israeli attack on Iran is worsening inequality, poverty and hunger across a world that has become dangerously dependent on fossil fuels. Continue reading...
Tehran’s UN envoy says ‘full respect’ of Iran’s rights also key for lasting regional stabilityUS is being ‘humiliated’ by Iran’s leadership, says Friedrich MerzWe are restarting our live coverage of the US-Israeli war on Iran.Iran needs “credible guarantees” against more US-Israeli attacks before it can ensure security in the Gulf, Tehran’s envoy to the UN has said, while on a Russian visit Iran’s foreign minister blamed Washington for the failure of peace talks.Donald Trump is unhappy with an Iranian proposal on the war because it does not address Iran’s nuclear program, Reuters cited a US official as saying on Monday, after Trump discussed the proposal with his top national security aides. Iran had offered to end its closure of the strait of Hormuz if the US lifted its blockade and ended the war in a proposal that would postpone discussions on Iran’s nuclear program, the Associated Press reported earlier, citing two unnamed regional officials. Later reporting quoted White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt as saying the proposal was “being discussed”.Lebanese president Joseph Aoun said direct talks with Israel sought to end the war on Lebanon and that those who dragged Lebanon into it were the ones committing “treason” – a jab at the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah, which claimed several attacks on Israeli targets in south Lebanon on Monday.Iraq’s newly elected president nominated businessman Ali al-Zaidi as the country’s prime minister-designate on Monday, after the country’s leaders yielded to US pressure not to support the bid of a former premier close to Iran.The Coordination Framework – an alliance of Shia factions with varying links to Iran – had initially backed powerbroker Nouri al-Maliki to become the country’s next premier, but Trump’s ultimatum left Iraqi leaders looking elsewhere.The US and Iran clashed at the UN on Monday over Tehran’s nuclear program and its selection to be one of dozens of vice-presidents at a month-long conference to review the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. US official Christopher Yeaw said Iran’s selection was an “affront” to the treaty. Tehran’s envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Reza Najafi, rejected the US statement as “baseless and politically motivated”. Continue reading...
US president says there’s ‘no reason to meet’ Tehran unless they agree never to have nuclear weaponsWelcome to our live coverage of events in the Middle East.Donald Trump has said Iran can telephone if it wants to negotiate an end to the war and that it must agree never to have a nuclear weapon, while Pakistan’s leaders have sought to revive the stalled peace talks between Washington and Tehran.Iran gave the US a new proposal on reopening the strait and ending the war, with nuclear negotiations postponed for a later stage, according to the news site Axios. The US state department and White House did not immediately comment on the Sunday report, which cited an unnamed US official and two sources.Araghchi’s talks with Pakistani officials on Sunday had included “implementing a new legal regime over the strait of Hormuz, receiving compensation, guaranteeing no renewed military aggression by warmongers and lifting the naval blockade”, according to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency. In the talks with Omani leader Haitham bin Tariq al-Said, Araghchi called for a regional security framework free of outside interference.Araghchi would meet with Putin “in continuation of the diplomatic jihad to advance the country’s interests and amid external threats”, Iran’s envoy in Russia, Kazem Jalali, said on X.Two US air force C-17s carrying security staff, equipment and vehicles used to protect US officials flew out of Pakistan after the latest diplomatic trip was called off, two Pakistani government sources told Reuters on Sunday. Continue reading...