Outlook

• US stock market futures surged, with Dow futures jumping over 680 points alongside rises in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, following President Trump's decision to halt strikes on Iran. • The move improved investor sentiment and lowered oil prices at the start of the new trading month, though analysts warn that geopolitical uncertainty persists. • Economic focus shifts to July employment data, with expectations of 87,500 nonfarm payrolls added and a slight unemployment rate increase to 4.3%.

• The Japanese yen rose nearly 1% against the U.S. dollar on Monday as investors anticipated a potential coordinated currency intervention between Japan and the United States. • This rally is driven by market expectations that Japanese authorities will act to stabilize the currency, alongside shifting outlooks regarding the Bank of Japan's monetary policy. • The movement is significant as it reflects growing volatility in the USD/JPY pair and highlights the tension between U.S. economic strength and Japanese currency stability.

• Crude oil prices surged above $86 and gasoline exceeded $5 following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, creating significant market volatility. • Investors are closely monitoring upcoming earnings reports from Alphabet, Tesla, and Intel to determine the continued viability of the AI trade. • The AI sector is seeing a massive infrastructure buildout, with projected capital expenditures of $571 billion this year and $3 trillion by 2028.

• ENGIE has raised its 2026 outlook following strong financial results for the first half of the year. • The company reported CapEx of EUR 22.9 billion, driven largely by the EUR 19 billion acquisition of UK Power Networks. • While net debt increased due to the acquisition, the company noted that overall levels remain strong enough to support its ongoing investment plan.

• The South Korean stock market, specifically the KOSPI, is experiencing significant volatility and a sell-off in AI memory stocks despite structurally bullish supply-demand fundamentals. • Market instability is being driven by financial mechanics rather than core business health, highlighted by the massive growth of single-stock leveraged ETFs. • A notable example is a Hong Kong-listed 2x SK Hynix fund, which surged 20-fold to $7.78 billion in assets since early 2026, becoming the world's largest single-stock leveraged fund.

• Lam Research reported record fiscal fourth-quarter results on July 29, accompanied by stronger-than-expected future guidance. • The company's growth is driven by surging demand for artificial intelligence, which is accelerating global investments in semiconductor manufacturing equipment. • This trend is fueling expansion across Lam Research's core business segments, specifically in etching, deposition, and related services.

• Eurobank has raised its 2026 outlook following strong financial results reported for the first half of the year. • CFO Harris Kokologiannis detailed a full-year Net Interest Income (NII) guidance of €4.5 billion, comprising €2.7 billion from H1 and an expected €1.8 billion for H2. • The bank is actively expanding its bond position and indicated it may acquire up to an additional €1 billion in bonds during the remainder of the year.