Pushes

• All major central banks adopted hawkish stances last week as energy market disruptions reignited inflation concerns, prompting global reassessment of monetary policy outlooks and eliminating prior rate-cut expectations. • U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut bets over the next 12 months have been priced out entirely, while most other advanced economies have begun pricing in additional rate hikes; the December Monetary Policy Report that implied a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.75% by Q4 2026 is now obsolete. • The combination of persistent energy price shocks and hardening central bank stances creates a "brutal combo for risk assets," with the dollar index remaining anchored in the 96.00-100.00 range as USD risks remain skewed to the upside during periods of financial market stress.

• President Trump demands passage of the SAVE Act, which requires passport or birth certificate for voter registration, photo ID at polls, and in-person citizenship proof for mail-in ballots, refusing to sign other legislation until it passes. • The bill would compel states to share voter rolls with the federal government; Senate Majority Leader John Thune refuses to eliminate the filibuster, dimming prospects. • Political history professor Nolan Higdon warns it could disrupt midterms by forcing separate state and federal elections if rules can't be implemented in time.

Closure of strait of Hormuz – a key fertilizer production and transportation route – has squeezed farmers as prices jumpRodney Bushmeyer has been farming as long as he can remember. Bushmeyer’s father was a farmer, as was his grandfather.The family-run Bushmeyer Farms in Illinois dates back more than 100 years, when his ancestors came to the US from Germany. They acquired the first 80 acres cost-free as homesteaders, cleared the land, and worked it. Continue reading...

California, Nevada and Arizona face record highs, with heat alerts and park trail closures as temperatures spikeStates across the US south-west recorded blistering temperatures at the tail end of winter, with forecasts indicating hotter days are still to come.California, Nevada and Arizona were all under heat warnings on Thursday amid record-breaking temperatures. Continue reading...

President Trump is urging Congress to pass the Save America Act next week, requiring proof of citizenship for voter registration and limiting mail-in ballots. The proposal faces contentious debate on Capitol Hill amid broader diplomatic strains from the Iran war. Lawmakers prepare for votes as Trump backs stricter election integrity measures post-2024. The bill could reshape US voting access if approved.

The US Senate passed a broad bipartisan housing bill on March 12, 2026, aimed at increasing construction and curbing institutional home purchases amid affordability woes. The bill's path in the House remains uncertain despite White House support announced March 2. Complementing President Trump's recent executive orders, it addresses voter concerns over home prices five times median income heading into midterms. Implementation hinges on state policies and market rates, with potential construction boosts eyed for relief.

US Treasury yields increased during the week of March 13, 2026, after oil prices briefly exceeded $100 per barrel, prompting investors to delay expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts into later 2026. Markets now price in only one rate cut for the year, down from prior forecasts, as February CPI data appears outdated amid March's energy inflation spike. The bond market showed unhinged behavior amid fears of higher headline inflation, slower growth, and stagflation risks from sustained high oil prices. A prolonged oil elevation could pair high inflation with unemployment rises, complicating Fed policy.