Rate Cut

Injecting $1.5bn via petrol subsidies into an inflated economy may change things for the Reserve Bank board at its next meetingFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastEconomists will say that what millions of motorists gain in cheaper fuel through the prime minister’s three-month fuel excise cut, they will lose in more expensive mortgages.It may be good politics, but injecting $1.5bn via petrol subsidies into an economy that is already struggling with a resurgent inflationary problem is not going to make the Reserve Bank of Australia’s job any easier. Continue reading...

• Meta is reducing its workforce while simultaneously increasing investment in artificial intelligence capabilities and research. • The company is shifting resources to prioritize AI development over other business areas, signaling a strategic pivot in corporate priorities. • This move reflects broader industry trends where major tech companies are reallocating capital toward AI infrastructure and models despite economic pressures.

Goldman Sachs increased its 12-month US recession probability to 25% from 20% and pushed back expected Federal Reserve rate cuts from earlier timelines to September and December. This adjustment reflects growing caution amid recent market volatility and economic data, with major indices like the S&P 500 down only 8% from highs but signaling broader concerns. The change aligns with rising odds of just one or no rate cuts at 40% each, driven by oil price pressures. Markets await further indicators next week for policy shifts.

US Treasury yields increased during the week of March 13, 2026, after oil prices briefly exceeded $100 per barrel, prompting investors to delay expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts into later 2026. Markets now price in only one rate cut for the year, down from prior forecasts, as February CPI data appears outdated amid March's energy inflation spike. The bond market showed unhinged behavior amid fears of higher headline inflation, slower growth, and stagflation risks from sustained high oil prices. A prolonged oil elevation could pair high inflation with unemployment rises, complicating Fed policy.

Markets fully priced in a Federal Reserve rate cut for 2026 on March 13, as economic steam loss combined with oil-driven inflation pressures. Traders adjusted expectations following Treasury volatility spikes and tariff news. This pricing reflects bets on policy easing despite persistent price risks. Upcoming data will test if slowdown warrants aggressive cuts.