Expectations

• Singapore's economy grew by 5.7% in the second quarter, surpassing the 5.5% growth forecast by analysts. • While the expansion beat expectations, it represents a slowdown compared to the revised 6.3% growth recorded in the first quarter. • This advance GDP data provides a critical economic indicator as the nation's central bank prepares for its quarterly monetary policy decision later this month.

• The United States is scheduled to release its June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data this Tuesday, serving as a pivotal macroeconomic event for global markets. • The report follows a notable increase in inflation during May and comes amid volatility in oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. • This data is critical because it will influence the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy assessments and potential expectations for interest rate cuts.

• Major technology stocks are experiencing a deepening selloff, though the S&P 500 remains up approximately 73% year-to-date. • The current market volatility is characterized as a "round-trip" of gains from the past month rather than a full-scale market crash. • Investors are questioning whether upcoming AI-related earnings reports can justify the sky-high valuations and expectations currently priced into the sector.

• NATO allies are lowering their expectations for the current summit following an aggressive and critical entrance by U.S. President Donald Trump. • The atmosphere remains tense as Trump's grievances and posturing cast a shadow over the diplomatic proceedings, though officials note his behavior is not unexpected. • The summit's ultimate outcome—whether it results in alliance reassurance or a rupture—will likely be decided on Wednesday.

• Eurozone retail sales grew by an annualized rate of 1.6% in May, surpassing market expectations. • Jack Allen-Reynolds, Deputy Chief Eurozone Economist at Capital Economics, noted that this growth suggests the surge in energy prices will have a minimal impact on overall GDP. • The data is significant as it indicates resilient consumer spending despite economic pressures and fluctuating energy costs.

• The 2-year Treasury yield declined following the release of new economic data showing a cooling trend in U.S. job creation heading into the summer. • During a panel at the European Central Bank's annual policy conference in Sintra, Portugal, Kevin Warsh emphasized that current prices remain "too high." • Warsh signaled a commitment to the 2% inflation objective, warning that markets expecting the central bank to accept a higher target would be disappointed.

• China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) grew in June, though the growth rate fell slightly below market expectations. • The data indicates a slower-than-anticipated expansion in the industrial sector, reflecting potential headwinds in production and demand. • This trend is significant as it suggests a cooling of manufacturing momentum, which could impact China's broader economic recovery and global trade.