Expectations

• The 10-year Treasury yield declined 18 basis points to 3.82% following the cooler-than-expected inflation reading, marking the steepest single-day drop in three months and reflecting a significant repricing of Fed rate cut probability. • Bond investors rushed into longer-duration securities as real yields compressed, with the 2-year Treasury sliding 12 basis points to 3.45%, indicating heightened expectations for near-term monetary easing. • The yield curve steepening trend accelerated, with the 10-2 spread widening to 37 basis points, suggesting market consensus that the Fed will begin cutting rates this spring while maintaining a measured approach to further reductions.

• Nvidia posted first-quarter revenue of $28.3 billion, representing a 106% year-over-year increase and surpassing Wall Street consensus forecasts by 8%, driven primarily by sustained demand for AI data center GPUs. • The chipmaker's gross margin expanded to 72.1%, the highest level in five quarters, as production efficiency gains and favorable product mix offset supply chain costs. • Guidance for Q2 revenue of $32-34 billion exceeded analyst estimates, reinforcing investor confidence in the artificial intelligence infrastructure boom and supporting semiconductor sector valuations amid broader market volatility.

• Meta Platforms reported Q1 revenue of $39.1 billion, growing 27% year-over-year and substantially exceeding Wall Street consensus estimates, driven by robust advertising demand and improved cost management. • Average revenue per user (ARPU) in the United States increased 18% year-over-year to $54.62, reflecting higher-value ad inventory and refined targeting capabilities powered by artificial intelligence. • The company guided Q2 revenue at $37-39.5 billion, cautioning of seasonal moderation, though full-year guidance remains constructive and suggests sustained advertiser confidence despite macro uncertainty.

Hopes that Sinners and One Battle After Another would bring in a big audience dashed as viewers fell to 17.9m, a 9% drop on last year’s 19.7mHopes had been high that the popularity of big hitters Sinners and One Battle After Another would translate into a bigger audience for the Oscars ceremony telecast. Yet numbers hit a four-year-low in the US, where the show reached 17.9 million viewers on ABC and Hulu, down about 9% from last year’s 19.7 million.Many had presumed the five-year high that 2025 represented was the product of interest in cinema bouncing back post-Covid – all the more cheering given that the movie that dominated, Sean Baker’s Anora, had not been a major box office player. Continue reading...

The US announced partial rollback of AI semiconductor export restrictions on March 13, 2026, targeting key technologies amid global competition. This move is poised to boost domestic chipmakers ahead of Nvidia's GTC event next week. Nvidia, HBM, and related AI plays face heightened focus with potential upside. Policy shift aims to balance national security and industry growth.

US Treasury yields increased during the week of March 13, 2026, after oil prices briefly exceeded $100 per barrel, prompting investors to delay expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts into later 2026. Markets now price in only one rate cut for the year, down from prior forecasts, as February CPI data appears outdated amid March's energy inflation spike. The bond market showed unhinged behavior amid fears of higher headline inflation, slower growth, and stagflation risks from sustained high oil prices. A prolonged oil elevation could pair high inflation with unemployment rises, complicating Fed policy.