War Briefing

Russian advances slowing, thinktank’s data shows; 14 killed in Ukraine in massive drone and missile salvo. What we know on day 1,501Russia’s army recorded almost no territorial gains on the frontline in Ukraine in March for the first time in two-and-a-half years, according to analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) conducted by Agence France-Presse. The Russian army has been slowing in its advances since late 2025 – because of Kyiv’s localised breakthroughs in the south-east of the country. Across the entire frontline, the Russian army seized only 23 sq km (8.9 sq miles) in March, losing territory in some areas, according to the analysis. This figure excludes infiltration operations conducted by Russian forces beyond the frontline, as well as advances claimed by the Russian side but neither confirmed nor denied by the ISW.The Russian army made 319 sq km of gains in January and 123 sq km in February, which was then the smallest advance since April 2024. Its advance in March was the smallest since September 2023. The ISW attributed the slowdown to Ukrainian counteroffensives, but also to “Russia’s ban on using Starlink terminals in Ukraine” and “the Kremlin’s efforts to restrict access to Telegram”. The messaging app – very popular among Russians, including those fighting on the front – has been barely usable in recent months due to blocks imposed by the authorities. As in February, Russia lost ground on the southern section of the frontline, between the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions.Russian strikes killed 14 people in Ukraine on Friday, officials said, as Moscow launched the latest in an increasing number of daytime barrages. Moscow has been firing aerial broadsides at Ukraine throughout its more than four-year invasion, mostly at night, but in recent weeks has stepped up daytime attacks. The Russian military used more than 500 drones and dozens of missiles in its salvo on Friday, according to the Ukrainian air force.Russia’s Baltic oil export hubs at Ust-Luga and Primorsk remain unable to handle shipments after a series of Ukrainian drone attacks, prompting the country’s refineries to find alternative routes for export, industry sources said on Friday. The attacks have damaged port infrastructure and continued through the last two weeks of March, with at least five strikes on Ust-Luga in the space of 10 days. Sources said the export restrictions, along with disruptions at large refineries, could lead to a decrease in oil production in Russia. Traders said refineries had been unable to deliver diesel fuel to Primorsk for export since 22 March, leaving refineries in European Russia and Siberia without their most viable export route. Traders said refineries were having to consider more expensive rail transport routes to other export terminals.Zelenskyy has called on lawmakers to pass key legislation next week to avert a funding crisis, help Ukraine fight the war against Russia, and enact key reforms required for EU accession. Due to lagging reforms and slow legislative progress in late 2025 and early this year, Ukraine missed deadlines to unlock billions from its key lenders, economists said. With the need for external financing standing at $52bn this year – equivalent to about a quarter of annual economic output – the budget situation is desperate. “I have a list of key draft laws that are critical for securing funding,” the Ukrainian president said in remarks released on Friday. They range from strengthening the court system to reforming energy sector procedures. “I believe that members of parliament from all parties must understand the importance of these bills for Ukraine’s budget,” said Zelenskyy, who has a majority in parliament but its relations with his government have soured. Continue reading...

‘Ukraine has expertise concerning sea waterways, and the defence and reopening of maritime traffic,’ says president. What we know on day 1,500Volodymyr Zelenskyy offered on Thursday to provide Ukraine’s expertise in dealing with freedom of navigation in the Black Sea to those countries considering how to keep the strait of Hormuz open amid the conflict in the Middle East. The Ukraine president, speaking in his nightly video address, said the foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, had taken part in a virtual meeting devoted to reopening the strait of Hormuz, attended by about 40 countries. “Ukraine has relevant expertise concerning sea waterways, and the defence and reopening of maritime traffic,” he said. “If [our] partners are ready to act, we will consider how we can strengthen them, how we can apply our expertise, knowledge and technological potential.”Russia’s army recorded no territorial gains on the frontline in Ukraine in March, for the first time in two and half years, AFP analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) showed. The Russian army’s advances have been slowing since late 2025 due to Kyiv’s localised breakthroughs in the south-east, and losing ground in March and February on the southern section of the frontline, between the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions, the analysis showed. Across the entire frontline, Ukrainian forces managed to recapture 9 sq km in March.North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, gave “field guidance” at the Memorial Museum of Combat Feats at the Overseas Military Operations, which is under construction , state media KCNA said. The museum in Pyongyang will be a place to commemorate the fallen soldiers sent to support the Russian army in the war in Ukraine. The construction of the museum is almost complete and Kim said the opening ceremony would be held in mid-April, marking the first anniversary of the deployment of the North Korean soldiers.Six Ukrainian children will be returned from Russia to their families in Ukraine, the White House said on Thursday, citing efforts by Melania Trump to expedite their return. A seventh Ukrainian child will also be returned to their family later this month, the first lady’s office said in a statement. Ukraine says almost 20,000 children have been illegally sent to Russia and Belarus, where they are sometimes subject to military training and forced to fight against their own country’s troops.Russian strikes across Ukraine on Thursday killed at least two people and wounded dozens, officials said, as Moscow stepped up its attacks amid stalled peace talks. In the south-eastern Kherson region, Russia attacked “with artillery, mortars and UAVs”, the regional prosecutor’s office said on social media. A 42-year-old man was killed when a drone hit a civilian car, and 16 others – including a teenage boy and three police officers – were wounded in air attacks and artillery shelling, it added. In the Chernihiv region, north of the capital Kyiv, Russia attacked with a ballistic missile, the head of Chernihiv’s military administration, Dmytro Bryzhynsky, said on Telegram.Russian forces maintained a daylong barrage of drone strikes on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, on Thursday, injuring at least two people, local officials said. Kharkiv’s mayor, Ihor Terekhov, posted reports on Telegram throughout the day and well into the evening, noting strikes in four city districts. One city official said there had been at least 20 drone strikes. He said some had triggered fires and two people had been injured in an evening attack, including an eight-year-old girl.Russian forces carried out 129 attacks on Ukrainian gas and heating facilities during the recent 151-day heating season, the state oil and gas firm Naftogaz said on Thursday. “The Russians hit pipelines, gas production, underground storage facilities, heating systems – everything that Ukrainians depend on for heat and gas,” it said in a statement. Continue reading...

Ukrainian president says ceasefire could show diplomacy works, while Russia dismisses statement as ‘PR stunt’. What we know on day 1,499Volodymyr Zelenskyy has criticised Russia for responding to an offer of an Easter truce with airstrikes. The Ukrainian president said on Wednesday he had spoken to US negotiators about an Easter ceasefire but Russian forces had fired more than 700 drones – many of them Iranian-designed Shaheds – targeting parts of western and central Ukraine in a rare daytime attack. Zelenskyy said: “Russia is responding [to the Easter ceasefire offer] with Shahed drones and continues its terrorist operations against our energy sector, against our infrastructure,” adding that he had discussed ways of advancing diplomacy with US negotiators. “A silence over Easter could be exactly the signal that tells everyone that diplomacy can be successful.” Russia’s foreign ministry rejected Zelenskyy’s proposal as a “PR stunt”.The Ukraine president said talks with US mediators aimed at resolving the four-year conflict were “positive”. The talks were held remotely on Wednesday with the US special envoy, Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and the US senator Lindsey Graham, with Nato’s secretary general, Mark Rutte, also joining the call amid the alliance’s continuing tensions with Washington. Zelenskyy thanked the US for its efforts to bring about peace and said the Ukrainian and US teams had agreed to strengthen a document outlining US security guarantees for any future peace deal. “This is precisely what could pave the way for a reliable end to the war.” In recent weeks Zelenskyy said the US had been pressuring Ukraine to make concessions to bring a quick end to the conflict after the US and Israel launched the war on Iran in late February. Talks with Russia are deadlocked over the question of land, with Ukraine refusing to cede to Moscow’s demands that it relinquish the eastern region of Donbas.Russia claimed to have full control of Ukraine’s Luhansk region on Wednesday, which Kyiv denied. Russia’s defence ministry claimed its forces had taken control of the entire Luhansk region – part of the Donbas – but a Ukrainian military official said small areas were still held by Ukrainian forces. Russia has previously made false claims of advances. The Russian defence ministry said in a statement: “Units have completed the liberation of the Luhansk people’s republic.” But Viktor Tregubov, a spokesperson for Ukrainian forces, said there were no changes to report in that region. “Unfortunately, we only hold small patches [in Luhansk], but those positions have been held by 3rd brigade for a long time,” Trehubov told the Associated Press. Russian claims of progress have in the past proved to be inaccurate. The Moscow-appointed head of Luhansk announced its full capture last June. Ukrainian officials have said that Moscow makes false claims of advances to persuade US negotiators a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable.Russia fired hundreds of drones at Ukraine, killing at least five people and destroying a postal terminal, Ukrainian officials have said. Ukraine’s Nova Poshta mailing company published an image on Wednesday of a warehouse in the western city of Lutsk in flames, with thick smoke pouring from its roof. As well firing 339 drones at Ukraine overnight, Russia launched more than 360 drones during the day, the Ukrainian air force said. One drone killed four people in the central Cherkasy region, while an earlier drone strike on a car in Ukraine’s frontline Kherson region killed a woman and badly wounded two other people, regional authorities said. Continue reading...

In today’s newsletter: As conflict engulfs Iran, shifting ​global alliances and soaring energy prices are reshaping ​the existing power balances​ that could redefine the next stage of international security Good morning. So far, there is only one clear winner from the war in Iran: Russia. Before the US and Israel attacked Tehran in late February, Moscow was preparing deep budget cuts to education and healthcare funding to pay for its invasion of Ukraine, which has now entered its fifth year.In just over a month of the fighting in Iran, Vladimir Putin’s Russia has experienced a dramatic reversal in fortunes. The global oil price has shot up from a prewar average of $72 to well over $100 per barrel, providing a financial boost of multi-billions for Moscow that shows little sign of ending.Middle East | Donald Trump has launched a tirade against European countries that refused to join his war against Iran, calling out the UK and France.Military | The UK is sending more military support to the Gulf, taking the total deployment to 1,000 troops.NHS England | Some medicines could run out in weeks or even days, NHS England head warns, after supply line shocks.UK politics | Nigel Farage to ‘steer well clear’ of UK CPAC event in July being led by the short-lived former prime minister Liz Truss.UK news | King Charles’s state visit to US to go ahead in late April despite Iran war concerns. Continue reading...

President says he is open to scaling back strikes on oil and wider energy industry if Moscow reciprocates. What we know on day 1,496 Continue reading...

Ukrainian president says peace deal proposed by US included ceding land to Russia. What we know on day 1,492The US is making its offer of security guarantees for a peace deal in Ukraine conditional on Kyiv ceding all of the country’s eastern region of Donbas to Russia, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Reuters in an interview. With the US focused on its own conflict with Iran, Donald Trump is applying pressure to Ukraine in an effort to bring a quick end to the four-year war triggered by Russia’s 2022 invasion, Zelenskyy said. “The Middle East definitely has an impact on President Trump, and I think on his next steps. President Trump, unfortunately, still chooses a strategy of putting more pressure on the Ukrainian side,” he told Reuters. “I would very much like the American side to understand that the eastern part of our country is part of our security guarantees,” he said.Russia sought to blackmail the US by offering to stop sharing military intelligence with Iran if, in return, Washington would cut off Ukraine from its intelligence data, Zelenskyy said on Wednesday. Zelenskyy, who said on Monday that Ukraine’s military intelligence had “irrefutable” evidence that Russia was continuing to provide intelligence to Iran, told Reuters he had seen the data but provided no further details. “I have reports from our intelligence services showing that Russia is doing this and saying: ‘I will not pass on intelligence to Iran if America stops passing intelligence to Ukraine.’ Isn’t that blackmail? Absolutely,” Zelenskyy said.Russian attacks killed two people in Ukraine’s northeastern city of Kharkiv and the region around it and a strike on the Danube port of Izamil damaged port facilities and energy infrastructure, officials said. Prosecutors in Kharkiv region, in a statement on Telegram early on Thursday, said a woman injured in an attack on the city of Kharkiv had died of her injuries in hospital. They said nine people were injured in strikes on two districts of the city, a frequent target of Russian forces, 30km (18 miles) from the border. Prosecutors also said a Russian drone had killed a man in his car in a district closer to the border.Ukrainian drone strikes killed two people on Wednesday in Russia’s border region of Belgorod, the regional governor said. Vyacheslav Gladkov, writing on Telegram, said drones had killed an 18-year-old man aboard a motorcycle in a village near the border and a woman in her car in the town of Graivoron, also near the border. Belgorod has been a frequent target of Ukrainian forces during the four-year war pitting Kyiv against Moscow. Ukrainian shelling of a public building in the city of Belgorod killed four people last week.Zimbabwe said on Wednesday that 15 of its citizens had been killed fighting for Russia in Ukraine, the latest African country to report recruits dying on the frontlines. The information minister, Zhemu Soda, told a press conference that the 15 had been deceived into enlisting, referring to it as human trafficking. He said one recruitment method used by traffickers targeting Zimbabweans was social media. An official at Russia’s embassy in Harare declined to comment.The British prime minister, Keir Starmer, said on Wednesday he had given the military permission to board and detain Russian ships his government alleges are part of a network of vessels that enables Moscow to export oil despite western sanctions. Other European nations have stepped up efforts to disrupt Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of tankers used by Moscow to fund its four-year war against Ukraine. Starmer said he approved more aggressive action against the vessels because the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, was likely “rubbing his hands” at the sharp rise in oil prices driven by the US-Israel war against Iran.The Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, a Putin ally, was greeted by North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, as he arrived on his first visit to the reclusive nation, the Korean Central news agency reported on Thursday. A ceremony welcoming Lukashenko took place on Kim Il Sung Square on 25 March, with Kim “gladly” meeting and “warmly” welcoming the Belarus leader, the report said. Lukashenko visited the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun – where the embalmed bodies of Kim’s father and grandfather lie in state – to pay his respects, flanked by top North Korean officials, the report said. Lukashenko laid a bouquet on behalf of Putin, it added. Continue reading...

President urges people to reduce consumption after power line passing through Ukraine damaged by drones; Moscow spring offensive steps up. What we know on day 1,491Moldova declared a state of emergency in the energy sector after a key power line with Europe was disconnected following Russian strikes in Ukraine. The declaration comes into effect on Wednesday and lasts for 60 days. The prime minister, Alexandru Munteanu, appealed to people to “avoid unnecessary consumption, especially during peak hours” and “stay united”, according to a statement from parliament. The former Soviet republic imports electricity from neighbouring EU member Romania, mostly via a power cable that passes through southern Ukraine. Moldovan authorities said crashed drones had been identified in Ukraine near the line and that “demining operations” were needed before repairs could be done. Restoring the power line itself was expected to take up to seven days, the energy minister, Dorin Junghietu was quoted by the Moldovan media outlet Ziarul de Gardă as saying. “Russia alone bears responsibility,” the Moldovan president, Maia Sandu, wrote on X, while the foreign ministry also condemned the Russian attacks. Russia has frequently targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure since it invaded its neighbour in 2022.The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has accused Russia of “absolute depravity” after Moscow fired an unprecedented daytime barrage across Ukraine, including on the historical centre of the western city of Lviv. “Iranian ‘shaheds’ [attack drones], modernised by Russia, are striking a church in Lviv – this is absolute depravity, and only someone like [Vladimir] Putin could find this appealing,” Zelenskyy said in his daily address. “The scale of this attack makes it abundantly clear that Russia has no intention of actually ending this war,” Zelenskyy added, vowing that Ukraine “will certainly respond to any attacks”.Russia’s military said on Wednesday it had shot down 389 Ukrainian drones overnight in one of the largest attacks to date. Russian regions bordering Ukraine, as well as Moscow and northwestern Leningrad were the main areas targeted, according to the military.Moscow appears to be stepping up a spring offensive intended to break Ukrainian resistance, writes Pjotr Sauer. Ukrainian officials said Moscow fired nearly 400 long-range drones and 23 cruise missiles overnight, followed by another 556 drones in an unusual daytime assault on Tuesday, hitting cities across the west of the country and killing at least seven people. Taken together, the barrage marks one of the largest aerial bombardments of Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion more than four years ago. One Russian drone struck the Bernardine monastery, a 16th-century church in Lviv’s Unesco-listed medieval centre, causing damage, local authorities said.North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, said his country would always support Russia in a thank-you letter to his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. Ties between the two have grown closer since Putin began the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with Pyongyang sending ground troops and weapons systems to aid Russia’s war effort. “I express my sincere thanks to you for sending warm and sincere congratulations first on my reassumption of the heavy duty as president of the state affairs,” Kim said in the message on Tuesday, the official Korean central news agency said. “Today the DPRK and Russia are closely cooperating to defend the sovereignty of the two countries,” Kim said, using the initials of the North’s official name. “Pyongyang will always be with Moscow. This is our choice and unshakable will,” he added. South Korean and western intelligence agencies have estimated that the North has sent thousands of soldiers to Russia, primarily to the Kursk region, along with artillery shells, missiles and long-range rocket systems. Analysts say the assistance has been provided in exchange for Russia’s provision of food and weapons technologies. Continue reading...

In today’s newsletter: Our diplomatic editor on how global instability feeds into conflict in so many parts of the world, and whether the threshold for a major global war has been metGood morning. The world is at war. From the trenches of eastern Ukraine to the missile-streaked skies of the Gulf, a growing proportion of humanity is living under the horror of conflict. For some observers, there are gnawing fears that the worst is yet to come. The apparent collapse of the rules-based international order, the irrelevance of institutions designed to uphold it, and the interconnectedness of the fighting have sparked warnings that we could be at the beginning of a third world war. Indeed, half of Britons polled in a recent YouGov survey thought world war three was likely in the next five to 10 years.On Monday, Donald Trump stepped back from deepening the US and Israel’s war with Iran, announcing that he would postpone military strikes on Iranian power plants for a five-day period after “very good and productive conversations” about the end to the fighting. Iran denied this version of events, claiming Trump had been scared off by their threats of attacks on water infrastructure in the Gulf. But, despite calmer stock markets and a sharp drop in the oil price, there is little sign that the fighting is near an end.Middle East | The Israeli military said it had launched a new wave of strikes on Tehran, after Donald Trump signalled a pause in US attacks against energy infrastructure after what he said were productive talks with Iran.UK Politics | Ministers are looking at providing support for household bills next winter, Keir Starmer said, as he suggested the energy price shock unleashed by the Iran conflict could continue for months to come.London | Security agencies are investigating whether a group linked to Iran is behind an arson attack on four ambulances belonging to a Jewish charity in north London.Climate crisis | More countries will face critical food insecurity if world heats up by 2C, analysis shows.New York | The pilot and co-pilot of an Air Canada Express regional jet have been killed after it collided with a fire truck while landing at New York’s LaGuardia airport. Continue reading...

Ukraine president vows to respond to move that would draw Belarus more directly into the war; EU anger at Hungary over Russia information sharing. What we know on day 1,490 Continue reading...