Willingness

• The S&P 500 rose over 1.5% and Nasdaq climbed nearly 2% Monday after the White House signaled it may abandon America's role in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump telling allies on Truth Social to "build up some delayed courage" and secure the strait themselves. • Trump wrote on social media: "You'll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won't be there to help you anymore, just like you weren't there for us," signaling a potential shift toward military disengagement despite ongoing operations. • The mixed messaging coincides with U.S. gas prices crossing $4 per gallon Tuesday—up more than $1 from February 27—marking the first time since 2022's Ukraine crisis energy shock, while Trump's approval rating has dropped to -16.7, a record low for his second term.

Regime will do whatever it takes to cling on to power – including sacrificing economies of other Gulf statesMiddle East crisis – live updatesBrinkmanship, the ability to take a country to the edge of war without plunging it into the abyss, was the cornerstone of cold war diplomacy. But in our different, more unstable times – in which the line between state and non-state actors has blurred, and weapons of war have diffused – the world this week finally tipped over the edge, and suddenly it is in freefall.The first six days of the Iran war cost the US $12.7bn (£9.5bn), but now the Pentagon is seeking as much as $200bn in military funding. Oil at $125 a barrel is no longer an Iranian, or Russian, fantasy. The crown jewel of Qatar, Ras Laffan – the world’s largest liquefied natural gas plant – may not reopen fully for five years, at a cost of $20bn a year. Other combustible oil depots in the Gulf, from Bahrain to Abu Dhabi, are exposed to Iran’s low-cost drones. Then add the human cost of 18,000 civilians injured and more than 3,000 killed in Iran alone. Continue reading...