Yield

• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.52% Thursday following stronger-than-anticipated producer price inflation data released by the Labor Department, pushing expectations for prolonged higher rates. • Market participants reassessed bets on future rate cuts after Fed speakers emphasized the need for additional months of restrictive policy to bring inflation back toward target levels. • The yield curve steepened significantly, with the 2-year-10-year spread widening to 87 basis points, reflecting growing uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of eventual rate cuts.

• The 10-year Treasury yield declined 18 basis points to 3.82% following the cooler-than-expected inflation reading, marking the steepest single-day drop in three months and reflecting a significant repricing of Fed rate cut probability. • Bond investors rushed into longer-duration securities as real yields compressed, with the 2-year Treasury sliding 12 basis points to 3.45%, indicating heightened expectations for near-term monetary easing. • The yield curve steepening trend accelerated, with the 10-2 spread widening to 37 basis points, suggesting market consensus that the Fed will begin cutting rates this spring while maintaining a measured approach to further reductions.

• Senators Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) announced an 'agreement in principle' with the White House on stablecoin yield payments in crypto market structure legislation on March 28, 2026. • The non-public text addresses key issues for Senate Banking Committee markup in April, following talks with banking and crypto industry stakeholders. • Coinbase expressed opposition to the proposed language, potentially impacting final negotiations.

• US S&P 500 futures hovered near flat Friday morning as investors balanced elevated borrowing costs, sticky inflation and Middle East tensions pushing energy prices. • 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.41%, pressuring credit cards and business loans, while 30-year mortgage rates reached 6.38%, making home buying costlier. • Spain's inflation at 3.3% underscores persistent living costs; interest-rate sensitive sectors like banks, real estate and small caps face tighter credit conditions.

• Negotiations on stablecoin yield provisions in the Senate crypto market structure bill have reached 99% resolution, with remaining friction being political rather than technical, according to Senator Cynthia Lummis. • The Senate Banking Committee markup is expected in late April, which creates a narrow window for the bill to complete all five sequential steps before the midterm election cycle begins dominating the floor calendar. • Senator Bernie Moreno warned that if the bill does not advance by May, digital asset legislation may not receive serious consideration again for years, creating urgency for passage.

US 10-year Treasury yields approached 4.5% on March 13, 2026, fueled by inflation worries and oil-driven pressures. This climb raises questions on potential changes to President Trump's economic policies if thresholds are breached. Markets eye bond market stress alongside equity declines for signals. Upcoming data releases could dictate Federal Reserve responses in coming months.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to 4.28% from 4.26% late Thursday on March 13, 2026, marking a jump from 3.97% before recent geopolitical tensions. Higher energy prices have fueled inflation fears, prompting investors to adjust Fed rate cut expectations. This bond market shift signals broader concerns over economic stability. Yields may face further upside if oil remains elevated.

US Treasury yields increased during the week of March 13, 2026, after oil prices briefly exceeded $100 per barrel, prompting investors to delay expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts into later 2026. Markets now price in only one rate cut for the year, down from prior forecasts, as February CPI data appears outdated amid March's energy inflation spike. The bond market showed unhinged behavior amid fears of higher headline inflation, slower growth, and stagflation risks from sustained high oil prices. A prolonged oil elevation could pair high inflation with unemployment rises, complicating Fed policy.