Yield

• Asian stocks rose on Friday, with gains in Japan, South Korea and Australia pushing the MSCI Asia Pacific Index higher after Wall Street gauges hit records. • The move was driven by the AI trade, strong corporate earnings and resilient U.S. consumer data, while Nvidia's six-day rally brought its market value closer to $6 trillion. • U.S. two-year Treasury yields traded at 4.03%, the highest since June, and Japan's 10-year government bond yield climbed after producer prices hit their highest level since 2023.

• A failed peace proposal over the weekend propelled oil prices and 10-year Treasury yields higher on Monday morning, with equity futures opening modestly lower. • Markets shrugged off geopolitical risks last week as oil declined on Iran ceasefire comments, but renewed tensions reversed that trend amid global energy volatility. • Gas prices rose nationwide, complicating inflation outlook with headline CPI above 3.5% despite easing core PCE, dimming Fed rate cut prospects.

• The U.S. Treasury successfully auctioned $42 billion in new 10-year notes on April 25, 2026, with the coupon rate settling at 4.38% amid continued demand from foreign central banks and domestic pension funds. • Bid-to-cover ratio reached 2.38x, slightly above the six-month average, indicating solid underlying demand despite elevated yields and concerns about federal deficit growth, which is projected to reach $1.8 trillion for fiscal year 2026. • The auction results suggest stabilization in long-term borrowing costs after weeks of volatility, potentially reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to adjust its benchmark rate at the May 2 policy meeting.

Deepening sense of deadlock despite regional diplomacy as Washington and Tehran show no signs of compromiseHopes of a breakthrough in negotiations between Iran and the US faded further on Sunday, amid a deepening sense of a deadlock in the nearly two-month-long conflict despite intense regional diplomatic activity.Washington and Tehran appear unwilling to moderate rhetoric or make concessions, and there are no negotiations scheduled that might bring the war to a definitive end. Continue reading...

• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined following the latest inflation report on April 10, 2026, easing from recent levels. • Equity futures pointed higher as markets opened, buoyed by the Treasury movement and broader optimism. • This reaction comes amid mixed Wall Street close and anticipation of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks, influencing bond and stock positioning.

• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.52% Thursday following stronger-than-anticipated producer price inflation data released by the Labor Department, pushing expectations for prolonged higher rates. • Market participants reassessed bets on future rate cuts after Fed speakers emphasized the need for additional months of restrictive policy to bring inflation back toward target levels. • The yield curve steepened significantly, with the 2-year-10-year spread widening to 87 basis points, reflecting growing uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of eventual rate cuts.

• The 10-year Treasury yield declined 18 basis points to 3.82% following the cooler-than-expected inflation reading, marking the steepest single-day drop in three months and reflecting a significant repricing of Fed rate cut probability. • Bond investors rushed into longer-duration securities as real yields compressed, with the 2-year Treasury sliding 12 basis points to 3.45%, indicating heightened expectations for near-term monetary easing. • The yield curve steepening trend accelerated, with the 10-2 spread widening to 37 basis points, suggesting market consensus that the Fed will begin cutting rates this spring while maintaining a measured approach to further reductions.