Rate Cut

• The Federal Reserve released minutes from its April 16 policy meeting, revealing internal division over the appropriate timeline for interest rate cuts, with several governors questioning whether inflation has declined sufficiently to warrant near-term reductions. • Hawks on the committee expressed concern that premature rate cuts could reignite price pressures, while doves argued that pausing at 5.5% risks unnecessarily constraining growth and employment, setting the stage for a contentious May 2 vote. • Market reactions to the minutes were mixed, with bond futures pricing in only a 28% probability of a rate cut by July 2026, down from 35% before the release, while equity index futures declined 0.6% on expectation of extended higher rates.

• President Trump issued an Executive Order directing the Department of Health and Human Services to expedite access to treatments for patients with serious mental illness. • The FDA is accelerating its review process for mental health therapies in response to the directive. • This policy shift aims to reduce barriers to treatment approval and expand therapeutic options for affected patients.

Former Wall Street banker faces questions at confirmation hearing – but his biggest backer is also his biggest liabilityOn the face of it, Kevin Warsh looks like an ideal candidate to chair the Federal Reserve, the world’s most important central bank. The 56-year-old Ivy League economist, former Wall Street banker and presidential adviser ticks all the boxes. Unfortunately for Warsh, as he faces what could be a fraught nomination hearing, his biggest backer is also his biggest liability.In his second term, Donald Trump has attacked the Fed in a manner both unprecedented and unseemly. He has called current chair Jerome Powell – whom he also appointed – a “jerk”, “a stubborn MORON”, and repeatedly threatened to fire him. Continue reading...

• President Trump signed an executive order directing federal regulators to fast-track FDA review of psychedelic drugs including psilocybin and ibogaine for treating depression, anxiety, and PTSD. • The order allocates $50 million in federal funds to states implementing or developing psychedelic treatment programs as part of a federal-state partnership initiative. • Trump highlighted that over 14 million American adults have serious mental illness, with approximately 8 million on prescription medication, framing psychedelics as addressing a national mental health crisis including suicide prevention.

• President issues executive order on April 18, 2026, to speed medical treatments for serious mental illness using psychedelic drugs including ibogaine compounds. • Order highlights clinical studies showing potential for patients with persistent conditions unresponsive to standard therapies. • Directs federal agencies to prioritize research, approvals, and access to innovative mental health interventions nationwide.

Former US Fed chair says lowering rates to reduce debt service cost can lead to inflation getting out of controlBusiness live – latest updatesThe former US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen has attacked Donald Trump’s push for lower interest rates, comparing it to the actions of a “banana republic”.The US president has repeatedly urged the central bank to slash interest rates, in the hope of cutting the government’s borrowing costs on its $39tn (£29tn) debt. Continue reading...

• Federal Reserve policymakers indicated Wednesday they are unlikely to cut interest rates in the near term, citing persistent inflation pressures that exceed the central bank's 2% target. • Multiple Fed officials, including those from major regional banks, cited "hotter-than-expected" March inflation readings as justification for holding rates steady through at least mid-2026. • Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted significantly, with futures traders now pricing in the first possible cut in September 2026 rather than June, reflecting the hawkish pivot.

• The Federal Open Market Committee met on March 17–18, 2026, noting uncertainty in the economic outlook with options markets pricing a 30% probability of rate hikes early next year. • Broad equity indexes declined sharply while S&P 500 one-month volatility rose, driven by investor concerns over Middle East developments weakening confidence. • Financing conditions stayed restrictive for households, small businesses, and commercial real estate due to high costs and tight underwriting, though corporate debt spreads remained narrow.