Forecast

• Halifax afferma che il costo di una casa tipica è sceso dello 0,1% in aprile, il secondo calo mensile consecutivo, con il ritmo della crescita annuale sceso dallo 0,8% allo 0,4%. • Notizie economiche – aggiornamenti in tempo reale: i prezzi delle case nel Regno Unito sono scesi per il secondo mese consecutivo in aprile, mentre Halifax ha dimezzato la sua stima per il tasso di crescita annuale a causa del conflitto in Medio Oriente. • Halifax, che fa parte di Lloyds – il più grande prestatore ipotecario della Gran Bretagna – ha dichiarato che il costo di una tipica casa nel Regno Unito è sceso dello 0,1% in aprile, arrivando a £299.313. Ciò segue un calo dello 0,5% registrato a marzo. Continua a leggere...

• UBS, società finanziaria globale con sede in Svizzera, ha ridotto la previsione di crescita del PIL per l'India nell'anno fiscale 2027 al 6,2%, rappresentando una revisione al ribasso di 50 punti base a causa dell'intensificarsi della crisi petrolifera innescata dalle tensioni globali. • La società di intermediazione svizzera attribuisce il rallentamento a una prolungata crisi energetica derivante dal conflitto in Medio Oriente, gravi interruzioni della catena di approvvigionamento e crescenti pressioni inflazionistiche in tutta l'economia indiana. • Questo declassamento riflette le preoccupazioni circa la resilienza economica dell'India di fronte a shock esterni, sebbene il tasso di crescita del 6,2% posizioni comunque l'India tra le maggiori economie a più rapida crescita a livello globale.

• Il bilancio 2026-27 del Partito Laburista mostra che lo stato ha registrato un surplus di 700 milioni di dollari per l'attuale anno finanziario, il primo di questo tipo dai tempi precedenti alla pandemia di Covid-19. • Il Victoria torna in attivo per la prima volta dall'inizio della pandemia; il bilancio statale di martedì determinerà un surplus operativo e ne predirà un altro per il prossimo anno finanziario. • Il bilancio 2026-27, che sarà presentato martedì pomeriggio, mostrerà che lo stato ha registrato un surplus di 700 milioni di dollari nel 2025-26, sostanzialmente in linea con l'aggiornamento pre-bilancio di dicembre di 710 milioni di dollari e in miglioramento rispetto ai 611 milioni di dollari previsti lo scorso maggio.

Move comes as airline industry reacts to uncertainty over Iran war and increase in price of Brent crudeBusiness live – latest updatesAir France-KLM has cut its capacity growth forecasts for this year as the Iran war drives up its fuel costs by billions of dollars.The French-Dutch airline expects its fuel bill to increase by $2.4bn (£1.8bn) this year as a result of the surge in costs since the Middle East conflict began. In response, it has trimmed its expectations for capacity growth to between 2% and 4% this year, down from 3% to 5% previously. Continue reading...

Robert Hayward predicts Reform will be big winner, taking seats from both Labour and the ConservativesGood morning. We are now into the final week of campaigning for the Scottish parliament, Welsh Senedd and English local elections. Keir Starmer had been planning a big speech today, but he, and other political leaders, are today focusing on their response to the Golders Green stabbing and the antisemitism threat facing Britain’s Jewish community – described as a “national security emergency” by Jonathan Hall KC, the government’s independent reviewer of terror legislation. Here is our overnight story. And here is our live blog by Taz Ali.Taz will be covering most of the political reaction to that story, and so that won’t be something I will be covering here. (And because criminal proceedings are active, comments relating to the attack won’t be allowed below the line, I’m afraid.) Continue reading...

Bank expects its base case for GDP growth to be 0.5% this year, lower than IMF’s 0.8% prediction for BritainBusiness live – latest updatesLloyds has warned that the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict could cost it £151m amid rising unemployment and inflation and a slowdown in the housing market.The FTSE 100 group, whose brands include Lloyds Bank, Halifax and Bank of Scotland, issued a downbeat economic forecast that it said reflects the stagflationary consequences – the double hit of rising inflation at the same time as slower economic growth – for the UK and global economies. Continue reading...

Severe storms put nearly 50 million at risk and follow a deadly weekend after tornado killed two people in TexasSevere storms are expected to sweep across the mid-Mississippi valley and midwest regions of the US on Monday, putting nearly 50 million people at risk.The storm prediction center has issued a level 4 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across south-west Illinois and south-east Missouri, including major cities such as St Louis. Forecasters warned of “multiple strong to intense tornadoes, widespread severe/damaging wind gusts and scattered large to very large hail”, with some hail potentially reaching baseball size. Continue reading...

Queensland and NSW set for lower than usual rainfall in May, June and July, while temperatures in most of the country likely to be higher than normalFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastLarge parts of south-east Australia look set for drier and hotter conditions over the next three months as a potential El Niño weather phenomenon takes shape in the Pacific Ocean.Much of Queensland and New South Wales are forecast to have lower than usual rainfall in May, June and July, with almost the entire country likely to experience hotter than average maximum temperatures. Continue reading...

• Nvidia shares jumped 5% in extended trading after a strong AI forecast, positioning the company to gain $220 billion in market value amid easing bubble concerns. • The stock had dropped nearly 8% in November following a 1,200% surge over three years, but positive results calmed investor jitters. • This development underscores Nvidia's role as AI market bellwether and highlights sustained demand for its chips.

Firm had to repatriate almost 12,000 guests and staff, including from two cruise ships in Abu Dhabi and DohaThe Iran war has cost the travel company Tui €40m (£34.7m) so far, including repatriating almost 12,000 holidaymakers and staff, and forced it to cut its profit forecast for this year.Europe’s biggest holiday operator said that it had taken the hit in March owing to the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, as it was forced to bring home 5,000 guests from two cruise ships anchored in ports in Abu Dhabi and Doha. Continue reading...

• IMF lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3% due to US-Iran conflict impacts. • The cut assumes contained conflict with 19% energy price rise, but escalation could drop growth to 2%. • 2027 outlook held at 3.2%, with effects expected to ease by mid-2026.

Thousands face power outages and a number of schools close across region as forecasters warn of hail and floodingSign up for the Breaking News US email to get newsletter alerts in your inboxA day after severe storms damaged communities in the Plains and the midwest, forecasters warned that storms could bring giant hail, tornadoes and severe wind gusts to the regions again on Tuesday afternoon and evening.Authorities in Kansas reported several people with minor injuries after storms passed through on Monday. Three people were left with minor injuries in rural Franklin county, about 50 miles (80km) south-west of Kansas City, according to the sheriff’s office. In the town of Ottawa, officials said there was structural damage, but no deaths or injuries. A National Weather Service survey team will assess damage in the Ottawa area on Tuesday to determine whether a tornado passed through there, according to Chelsea Picha, a meteorologist with the weather service’s office in Topeka. Continue reading...

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced at GTC 2026 that demand for the company's products will reach $1 trillion through 2027, with fulfillment only possible by 2028. • The revelation underscores explosive growth in AI hardware needs, driven by data center expansions and model training. • Nvidia also released NemoClaw, an open-source stack enhancing privacy and security for the popular OpenClaw AI agent.

Category 3 cyclone is moving south of Fiji towards New Zealand, with winds at centre in excess of 150km/hTropical Cyclone Vaianu forming in the Pacific could bring life-threatening winds and heavy rain to New Zealand later this week, forecasters have said, with strong wind watches issued for the entire North Island.The category 3 cyclone is moving south of Fiji towards New Zealand, with winds around the centre in excess of 150km/h, MetService said on Wednesday. Continue reading...

The Bureau of Meteorology says a blend of fine days and showers expected for most capital cities over the coming daysFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastMany Australians can expect mild temperatures and a chance of showers over the Easter weekend, while meteorologists predict a cyclone will form in the Coral Sea on Sunday.The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast a blend of fine days and showers for most capital cities over the coming days. Continue reading...

Meteorologists issue yellow weather warning, with gusts of up to 90mph expected in some areasThe northern half of the UK is expected to face gale force winds over the Easter weekend, with forecasters warning of possible travel disruption and power cuts, stemming from a “significant cold plunge from Canada into the North Atlantic”.The Met Office has issued a yellow weather warning for very strong winds in Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of north Wales and northern England from 6pm on Saturday until midday on Sunday. Continue reading...

Consumers brace for ‘awful April’ and Iran war cost hikes, which have pushed UK’s gas market past three-year highs Households in Great Britain could see their energy bills increase by about £290 a year to almost £2,000 from this summer in a “tough pill to swallow” for consumers already braced for a volley of “awful April” cost hikes from Wednesday.A typical gas and electricity bill is now forecast to reach £1,929 a year from July under the industry regulator Ofgem’s quarterly price cap, according to analysis by the energy consultancy Cornwall Insight. Continue reading...

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced expectations of at least $1 trillion in demand for its Blackwell and Rubin AI systems through 2027, doubling from $500 billion projected through 2026. • This projection signals over 100% annual sales growth for Nvidia amid booming data center demand. • The forecast underscores AI's role in driving U.S. tech sector expansion and GDP growth, with analysts citing non-inflationary productivity gains.

OECD says the Middle East war will test the world’s resilience with Australia expected to suffer from higher rates and inflationGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastThe world economy is on the brink of a major inflationary spike as soaring fuel prices threaten growth in European and Asian nations, the OECD has warned, and local economists are slashing Australia’s growth prospects for this year and the next amid the ongoing US-Israel attack on Iran.The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development’s latest interim outlook said the US-Israel war on Iran will “test the resilience of the global economy”, and warned of the “significant downside risk” to their forecasts should the oil supply disruptions prove more persistent and push energy prices even higher. Continue reading...

• CompTIA's State of the Tech Workforce 2026 report, released March 24, predicts net U.S. tech employment growth of 1.9%, creating 185,499 new jobs to reach nearly 9.8 million workers. • Texas leads with 32,238 jobs added, followed by California (16,949), Florida (14,453), and New York (13,566); all states expect gains. • High-growth roles include data scientists (420% over 10 years), cybersecurity analysts (346%), and software developers (188%), driven by AI impact.

• AI is expected to drive data center power consumption up 175% by 2030, creating unprecedented grid shortages that have pushed electricity prices higher across the country and compelled tech companies to seek alternative power sources. • Google's deal to power a new Minnesota data center blends wind and solar with a 30 gigawatt-hour battery from Form Energy, while the U.S. is expected to have nearly 65 gigawatts of battery storage capacity by year-end. • Dozens of startups including Amperesand, DG Matrix, Heron Power, Camus, GridBeyond, and Texture are developing power conversion and grid management technologies to address the critical energy shortage.

• NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang announced at GTC in San Jose a forecast of $1 trillion in sales from Blackwell and Rubin chips by late 2027, doubling the prior $500 billion estimate through 2026. • The company unveiled a new inference system generating 700 million tokens per second, 350 times faster than the Hopper generation, to counter custom chips from competitors like Google. • NVIDIA's DRIVE platform for robotaxis, valued at $1.2 trillion by Morgan Stanley, is adopted by Uber and BYD, with Uber's fleet launching in 2028; data center revenue hit $192 billion last year, up 66%.

• Apple is projected to generate more than $1 billion in AI-related revenue this year, even as it trails rivals in generative AI product launches, according to The Wall Street Journal. • Wall Street analysts focus on Apple's monetization strategy leveraging its services ecosystem and premium hardware rather than first-to-market demos. • This approach highlights how distribution and installed base can drive consumer AI profitability over raw model capabilities.

• Research firm IDC significantly lowered its 2026 PC shipment forecast to an 11.3% decline, compared to the previous projection of a 2.4% drop, driven by ongoing memory shortages, rising component costs, and supply chain disruptions expected to persist into 2027. • Tablet shipments are also expected to fall 7.6% in 2026, though the overall market value is projected to increase slightly as higher component costs drive up per-unit prices for computers and devices. • IDC predicts that truly inexpensive computers will become rarer as the industry adapts to a new normal with elevated component pricing, fundamentally changing the affordable computing landscape.

• The global security market is projected to grow 11.8% in 2026, with the United States leading worldwide spending at $150 billion, driven by investments from Financial Services, Healthcare, and Government sectors. • Software will account for over half of security spending, with Identity and Access Management, Endpoint Security, and Security Analytics comprising more than 50% of global Security Software expenditures, growing at 14% year-over-year. • AI-driven threats and sophisticated cyberattacks are prompting companies to prioritize integrated, intelligence-driven security architectures for better visibility and automated responses, amid geopolitical tensions.

• The El Niño weather pattern is likely to develop this summer and persist through 2026, elevating global temperatures and disrupting regional weather worldwide. • Scientists indicate this event could exacerbate warming trends, following a new study addressing whether global warming is accelerating. • The pattern matters for US agriculture, water resources, and extreme weather risks, with potential for hotter summers across the nation.

Goldman Sachs increased its 12-month US recession probability to 25% from 20% and pushed back expected Federal Reserve rate cuts from earlier timelines to September and December. This adjustment reflects growing caution amid recent market volatility and economic data, with major indices like the S&P 500 down only 8% from highs but signaling broader concerns. The change aligns with rising odds of just one or no rate cuts at 40% each, driven by oil price pressures. Markets await further indicators next week for policy shifts.

Adobe shares fell 5.4% on March 13, 2026, even after exceeding Wall Street's sales and profit estimates for the quarter. Investors reacted negatively to the software maker's forecast for recurring subscription revenue, which underwhelmed expectations amid competitive pressures in creative software. The drop underscores concerns over growth sustainability in tech amid macroeconomic headwinds. Adobe's outlook may influence sentiment for other SaaS companies reporting soon.