Signals

• L'analisi di JPMorgan mostra che i mercati stanno ricalibrando i rischi inflazionistici legati al petrolio, con l'azionario globale che si adegua a potenziali scenari di rialzi dei tassi a seguito dei recenti aumenti dei prezzi del greggio. • Le banche centrali stanno fornendo segnali più chiari sulla politica monetaria, suggerendo che gli aumenti dei tassi potrebbero non concretizzarsi in modo così aggressivo come temuto, nonostante l'elevato costo dell'energia. • Tale divergenza evidenzia come i timori per l'inflazione precedano la realtà economica sottostante, creando potenzialmente opportunità di acquisto qualora i dati dovessero attenuarsi.

Il Cremlino intensifica la sicurezza prima della più grande celebrazione nazionale russa del 9 maggio, tra i timori di attacchi con droni ucraini. • La Russia ha chiuso gli aeroporti e ha temporaneamente interrotto l'accesso a internet mobile per molti utenti a Mosca martedì, intensificando le misure di sicurezza in vista della parata del Giorno della Vittoria del 9 maggio per commemorare la sconfitta della Germania nazista. • La parata – la principale celebrazione nazionale russa – è già stata ridimensionata e si svolgerà senza mezzi militari pesanti per la prima volta in quasi due decenni, a causa dei timori di attacchi con droni ucraini a lungo raggio.

• The S&P 500 index closed at 6,450.06, down 16.52 points or 0.26%, reflecting cautious trading in US equities over the past day. • Broader market showed divergence with Dow Jones ETF down 0.16% at 492.21, while S&P ETF rose 0.77% to 713.94 and Nasdaq QQQ gained 1.88% to 663.88. • Gold prices fell to 4,725.40 per ounce, down 15.50, amid shifting investor risk appetite ahead of economic data releases.

• Chinese military announced a temporary halt to provocative exercises around Taiwan following private diplomatic discussions between US and Chinese officials in Singapore this week. • Beijing stated the suspension aims to create space for constructive dialogue, though military analysts note China maintains its military posture in the Taiwan Strait. • The development provides cautious optimism for regional stability, with US officials emphasizing the importance of maintaining open communication channels to prevent miscalculation.

• The U.S. Supreme Court announced opinions on the way as of April 17, 2026, shifting focus from the controversial shadow docket to merits cases. • Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Ketanji Brown Jackson criticized conservative colleagues in viral comments related to emergency relief requests from the Trump administration. • The emergency docket remains a flashpoint, underscoring deep ideological divides within the federal judiciary.

• President Trump expressed optimism that an Iran peace deal is 'looking very good,' signaling potential near-term resolution to the US-Iran conflict that has destabilized financial markets. • Investors are actively weighing the likelihood and terms of a potential Iran truce as a key variable influencing near-term market direction and energy price trajectories. • Geopolitical risk premiums embedded in oil prices and equity valuations could face significant repricing if a comprehensive ceasefire agreement is formally announced.

• A paralyzed man successfully controlled a robotic arm by using a neural interface device that relays signals from his brain to a computer, enabling him to grasp, move, and drop objects through thought alone. • The breakthrough demonstrates the practical application of brain-computer interface technology, allowing the patient to perform complex motor tasks that were previously impossible due to paralysis. • This advancement represents a significant milestone in neurotechnology and rehabilitation, offering hope for individuals with paralysis by restoring functional control of external robotic limbs through neural signals.

• US and Israeli forces conducted strikes Tuesday on major Iranian steel facilities, including the Mobarakeh Steel Company in Isfahan and the Khuzestan Steel Company, marking continued escalation of military operations. • President Donald Trump stated American forces will withdraw from Iran within "two to three weeks," signaling a potential end to the ongoing military campaign that began last month. • Iran reported at least 249 women and 216 children killed in US-Israeli attacks since the war's start, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejected ceasefire proposals and demanded a complete end to hostilities.

Chancellor says the government is looking at ways they can support people based on household income Good morning. Keir Starmer is giving a press conference this morning where, according to No 10, he will discuss the Iran war, and how the government is supporting people at home. Now we are in April, the new financial year is starting, and the government is highlighting measures it has introduced that will help people with the cost of living. The Conservatives have an alternative list, and they are claiming this morning that “Keir Starmer and his chancellor have piled on extra costs leaving families almost £1,000 worse off this year”.The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has been doing her own media too. She is on the Jeremy Vine show later, but she has already given an interview to BBC Breakfast in which she gave a marginally clearer idea of what she is planning to do to help people with energy bills than she did when she made a statement to MPs last week.From July to September, gas usage, especially by families and pensioners, is the lowest of any months of the year because it is the summer months …It will be really from the autumn onwards that people’s gas usage starts increasing. So at the moment we are working on a range of contingencies. And we are looking at more targeted measures. We are looking at ways we can support people based on their household income.I want to learn the lessons of the past because when Russia invaded Ukraine, the richest, the best-off third of households got more than a third of the support. That makes no sense at all. Continue reading...

• Equity markets reacted positively after Iranian state media indicated willingness to end the conflict with the US, contingent on certain conditions, as reported in Bloomberg coverage. • President Trump described potential US exit from Iran as 'very soon,' predicting sharp drops in gasoline prices and improved safety from neutralized nuclear threats. • The month-long war has spiked fuel costs, affecting grocery prices as noted by industry figures like Stew Leonard Jr.

• The S&P 500 rose over 1.5% and Nasdaq climbed nearly 2% Monday after the White House signaled it may abandon America's role in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump telling allies on Truth Social to "build up some delayed courage" and secure the strait themselves. • Trump wrote on social media: "You'll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won't be there to help you anymore, just like you weren't there for us," signaling a potential shift toward military disengagement despite ongoing operations. • The mixed messaging coincides with U.S. gas prices crossing $4 per gallon Tuesday—up more than $1 from February 27—marking the first time since 2022's Ukraine crisis energy shock, while Trump's approval rating has dropped to -16.7, a record low for his second term.

• The Federal Reserve indicated openness to a 25 basis point rate cut at its May meeting after the March Consumer Price Index came in at 2.3% year-over-year, marking the lowest inflation reading in two years and easing pressure on monetary policy. • Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated in prepared remarks that the central bank will "monitor incoming data carefully" and emphasized the bank's commitment to price stability while supporting employment. • Market expectations for rate relief have strengthened, with futures pricing in approximately 65% probability of a May cut, signaling investor confidence that the inflation trajectory has stabilized sufficiently for policy accommodation.

• US stock markets opened higher on March 30, 2026, with the S&P 500 up 0.33% or 21 points, Dow up 0.46% or 209 points, and Nasdaq up 0.2% or 41 points amid optimism over Trump-Iran negotiations. • President Trump stated Washington is in serious discussions with a more reasonable regime to end the war, warning Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its oil infrastructure, boosting sentiment. • Energy stocks led gains with S&P 500 Energy Index up 1.5%, Exxon Mobil climbing 3%, and Chevron adding 1.5%, while oil rose $2.44 to $102.10.

Reluctance to cheerlead alleged US ceasefire efforts reflects suspicion talk of peace could be another foil for escalationMiddle East crisis – live updatesNot long after Donald Trump said the US was engaged in “strong talks” to bring the war with Iran to an end this week, Qatar took the unusual step of distancing itself from the alleged diplomatic negotiations.Qatar was not involved in any mediation efforts, said Majed al-Ansari at a briefing on Tuesday night, before adding as a telling aside: “If they exist.” Continue reading...

• Three historical factors that preceded double-digit stock-market declines are present simultaneously in 2026, according to DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas, signaling heightened risk for U.S. equity investors. • The S&P 500 has dropped 4.7% in March alone and is down 4.2% year-to-date, on track for its worst monthly performance since March 2025 and first quarterly loss since Q1 2025. • Despite warning signs, Colas maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook, stating there is still time to avoid a double-digit loss if Middle East tensions de-escalate swiftly and crude-oil prices decline.

PM indicates he would prefer to focus taxpayer-funded help on poorest households, rather than universal bailoutMinisters are looking at providing support for household bills next winter, Keir Starmer said, as he suggested the energy price shock unleashed by the Iran conflict could continue for months to come.The prime minister indicated he would prefer to focus any taxpayer-funded help on the poorest households, rather than an expensive universal bailout, ahead of an emergency meeting on the economic fallout of the Middle East crisis. Continue reading...

Race to fill Marjorie Taylor Greene’s seat provides glimpse into midterms with Iran and immigration on voters’ mindsEarlier this week, a steady trickle of voters casting ballots in Dalton at Georgia’s City Hall offered a glimpse into what may be changing fortunes for Democrats in Marjorie Taylor Greene’s former congressional district.The district hasn’t elected a Democrat since it was created after the 2010 Census. But the party’s candidate Shawn Harris drew the most votes district-wide – about 37% – on Tuesday and now faces Clay Fuller, a Trump-endorsed former prosecutor as his opponent in an April runoff election. The winner will finish Greene’s term until November, when a whole new election will take place. Continue reading...

Verizon Communications emerged as a key stock to watch on March 13, 2026, following the major indexes' rally failure with Nasdaq down 0.9% below its 200-day line. Analysts highlight Verizon's defensive qualities amid S&P 500 and Dow approaching key support levels near their 200-day moving averages. The telecom giant could benefit from heightened volatility as investors seek stability post-oil surge. Next week's trading will test if telecoms lead any market recovery.

SETI has spent decades listening for a sharp, well-defined radio signal that could indicate it was sent by distant intelligent life. Now researchers believe that space weather could distort and blur such signals – meaning SETI has been scanning for the wrong thing