Third Straight

While interest rate rises can’t affect the surging price of oil caused by Middle East turmoil, they are still the Reserve Bank’s best – and only – tool to fight inflationFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastOne economist is calling it the “Hormuz hike”.There’s a nearly 80% chance that the Reserve Bank will deliver a third straight interest rate rise on Tuesday, according to financial markets.Patrick Commins is Guardian Australia’s economics editor Continue reading...

• The S&P 500 declined 1.6% last week, marking its third consecutive weekly drop, with the Dow falling 2% and Nasdaq shedding 1.3% due to soaring oil prices and broad market selling. • Surging oil prices from geopolitical tensions, including US-Iran escalation, drove the downturn, as investors brace for NVIDIA GTC AI event and FOMC rate decision this week (March 16-20, 2026). • Markets now price only a 33% chance of a June rate cut, down from 57% last month, amid persistent inflation data; Thursday's jobless claims will gauge labor market health.

• The S&P 500 declined 1.6% for its third consecutive weekly loss, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2% and the NASDAQ shed 1.3% as geopolitical tensions and surging oil prices created broad selling pressure across all major indices. • Investors face a critical week ahead with the NVIDIA GTC conference (the "AI Oscars") scheduled alongside the Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday and jobless claims data on Thursday. • Persistent inflation has dramatically shifted market expectations, with traders pricing in just a 33% probability of a June rate cut compared to 57% one month ago, reflecting heightened uncertainty about the Fed's monetary policy path.

• The S&P 500 fell 1.6% last week to 6,632.19, now down 5% from its January 27 high of 6,978.60 and 3.1% year-to-date, hit by broad selling across indices including Dow -2% and Nasdaq -1.3%. • Geopolitical tensions from US-Iran escalation drove oil higher, with markets pricing in prolonged uncertainty as the conflict enters its third week. • Core PCE price index rose 0.36% month-over-month, with annualized three-month trend at 3.7%, signaling persistent inflation pressuring Fed rate cut expectations.