Allies

Prime minister has shed trusted staffers but can still turn to many genuine friends in and out of governmentGiven that the signs of an embattled premiership are all around – defensive-sounding interviews insisting he will be in post at the next election; a rush of stories about supposed cabinet plotting – now, more than ever, Keir Starmer needs real allies. And here, at least, there is something to feel positive about.If you talk to most Labour MPs, Starmer most likely will not lead Labour into the next election. He may even not remain in No 10 much beyond a set of Scottish, Welsh and local English elections on 7 May, which are expected to be disastrous for his party. Continue reading...

In today’s newsletter: As political tensions rise abroad and economic pressures mount at home, ​D​onald Trump faces a shifting landscape that is testing the loyalty of his ​M​aga supportersGood morning. Starting a war of choice that is rapidly spiralling out of control, poll ratings at a second-term low, and a cost of living crisis intensifying for millions.Any conventional US president would be in big trouble. But Donald Trump is not a conventional president, and normal rules do not seem to apply to him. More than a third of Americans continue to believe he is doing a good job despite the global chaos he has unleashed.UK politics | Keir Starmer was looking increasingly isolated over the Peter Mandelson scandal as the Guardian learned of concerns around the cabinet table, a senior minister refused to say the dismissal of Olly Robbins was fair and several mandarins called for Robbins to be reinstated. One Labour MP called on Starmer to quit.Middle East | Iranian forces seized two ships in the strait of Hormuz as the US and Iran doubled down on imposing separate blockades of the shipping waterway.West Bank | Two Palestinians, including a 14-year-old schoolboy, were killed in the occupied West Bank after Israeli settlers opened fire near a school, witnesses and local officials said. Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed a journalist after rescuers were blocked from accessing the building where she was buried under rubble because of further Israeli fire, according to several witnesses.UK news | Britain’s high military dependence on the US is “no longer tenable” and the UK has to become increasingly independent of the special relationship, a former Nato chief has said.Palantir | The Metropolitan police has held talks with Palantir that could lead to the London force buying the US spy-tech company’s AI technology to automate intelligence analysis for criminal investigations. Continue reading...

The prime minister has weathered the crises – for now – and there is a growing recognition that Australia is too vulnerable to world eventsFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastAnthony Albanese’s fuel diplomacy tour of Asia has already started paying dividends, but the real test could still be to come.After last week’s rush to Singapore and pulling forward a planned visit, the prime minister dashed back to Australia from Malaysia on Thursday, to survey the damage at one of the nation’s only remaining fuel refineries. The hastily arranged trips, were to show a leader on the job; to demonstrate Albanese’s attention to the fuel crisis. Continue reading...

• DC Mayor Muriel Bowser and her political allies have characterized Trump administration threats regarding the city's governance as a symbolic victory, suggesting they have successfully resisted federal pressure. • The dispute centers on federal efforts to exert control over District of Columbia government operations, marking one of the most serious federal threats to local autonomy in 30 years. • The 88-year-old congressional delegate has mounted a defensive response to defend the city's semi-autonomous status and self-governance rights.

• Crude oil futures surged above $85 per barrel Thursday, driven by ongoing supply constraints from geopolitical tensions and maintenance shutdowns at major U.S. refineries affecting production capacity. • Energy stocks in the S&P 500 gained 2.1% on the session, with exploration and production companies outperforming as rising commodity prices improve profit margins and cash flow forecasts. • Analysts noted that refinery capacity utilization fell to 87% this week, the lowest level since January, suggesting tighter margins ahead for integrated energy companies dependent on downstream operations.

Mark Rutte praises ‘very frank’ talks but declines to say if president discussed potential withdrawal from allianceMark Rutte, the secretary general of Nato, has said Donald Trump was “clearly disappointed” that the US’s allies had refused to join its war against Iran, following a closed-door meeting in Washington on Wednesday.Speaking to CNN after his private meeting with the US president, Rutte declined to say directly whether Trump raised his threat to withdraw from the military alliance over the Iran war, but described the exchange as a “very frank, very open” discussion between “two good friends”. Continue reading...