Blockade

• United Arab Emirates는 어제 OPEC에서 탈퇴하며, 고조되는 지역 위기 속에서 Saudi Arabia와의 역사적인 결별을 기록했습니다. • 이번 결정은 Iranian 석유 수출을 저지하려는 US 해군 봉쇄로 인해 Strait of Hormuz가 거의 완전히 폐쇄된 상황과 시기적으로 일치합니다. • US는 Iranian 석유 거래 처리를 막기 위해 주요 Chinese banks를 자국 금융 시스템에서 차단하겠다고 위협하며 글로벌 에너지 긴장을 심화시키고 있습니다.

Donald Trump가 US Navy 봉쇄를 유지할 의향이 있는 것으로 보이고 Iran이 Strait of Hormuz를 거의 폐쇄함에 따라 Oil 시장이 술렁이고 있습니다. Donald Trump가 Iran 항구에 대한 미국의 봉쇄가 수개월간 지속될 수 있다고 경고하고 평화 협상이 교착 상태에 머물면서, 수요일 Brent oil 가격은 2022년 이후 최고치인 배럴당 $126 위로 치솟았습니다. 24시간 만에 13% 이상 급등한 Brent crude는 전쟁이 시작된 2월 28일 이후 최고가를 기록했습니다. 2022년 Russia의 Ukraine 침공 이후 Brent가 $120를 넘은 적은 없었으며, 당시 가격은 $139로 정점을 찍었습니다. Continue reading...

• UN International Maritime Organization Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez stated that the blockading of ships in the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iran conflict has turned international shipping and seafarers into leverage in geopolitical disputes. • The crisis highlights how vessels and crews, not involved in the conflict, are being caught up in hostilities between the United States and Iran, disrupting global trade routes. • This development underscores critical weaknesses in global shipping networks, potentially leading to supply chain disruptions, higher costs, and risks to maritime security worldwide.

• Navy Secretary John Phelan was fired by the Pentagon on Wednesday night amid escalating tensions with Iran over the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. • The firing comes as the U.S. maintains military pressure on Iran, with reports indicating the blockade is costing Iran an estimated $500 million per day and pushing the regime toward economic collapse. • U.S. intelligence officials warn that Iran retains thousands of missiles and drones capable of threatening American interests in the region.

Battle of the blockades may still have more time to run as both the US and Iran try to assert control over the strait of HormuzDonald Trump’s decision to extend the naval blockade of Iran indefinitely may do nothing to reduce world oil prices – but it could amount to a recognition that further US military escalation in breach of the nominal ceasefire comes with greater risk against a regime disinclined to surrender.In theory, Trump’s military options are increasing. A third US carrier strike group, the George HW Bush, is due to arrive in the Middle East within days after rounding South Africa. A second taskforce of 2,500 US marines is sailing from the Pacific and is due to arrive by the end of April. Continue reading...

White House says Tehran in ‘very weak position’; Iran says two seized ships transferred to its coast; US navy secretary exiting post ‘effective immediately’, says Pentagon‘Impossible’ to reopen strait of Hormuz amid ‘flagrant’ ceasefire breaches, Iran saysWelcome to our live coverage of events in the Middle East.Iran has seized two ships in the strait of Hormuz a day after Donald Trump announced he was indefinitely calling off US attacks, while there is no sign of peace talks restarting.Trump was “satisfied” with the US naval blockade and “understands Iran is in a very weak position”, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. The US president had not set a deadline on Iran submitting a peace proposal, she said, after Trump on Tuesday said he was indefinitely extending the ceasefire at the request of mediator Pakistan until Tehran responded to the US’s negotiating positions or until talks were concluded “one way or the other”.The Pentagon announced that the US secretary of the navy, John Phelan, would depart the office “effective immediately”, without providing an explanation for his sudden exit. The US army’s top officer, Gen Randy George, and two other senior officers were removed earlier this month amid the continuing war with Iran.The US-Israeli war against Iran is “starting to weaken Europe”, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has told his German counterpart. Erdoğan said: “If we do not address this situation with an approach that prioritises peace, the damage caused by the conflict will be far greater.”Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed a Lebanese journalist, Amal Khalil, and wounded a photographer accompanying her, a senior Lebanese military official and Khalil’s employer said. The death of Khalil, 43, brought the death toll to five people on Wednesday – the deadliest day since a 10-day truce between Israel and Hezbollah was announced on 16 April. There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military on Khalil’s death.Khalil and freelance photographer Zeinab Faraj were covering developments near the town of al-Tayri when an Israeli strike hit the vehicle in front of them, Reuters reported. They ran into a nearby house that was then also targeted by an Israeli strike, said Lebanon’s health ministry. Lebanese prime minister Nawaf Salam said Israeli targeting of journalists and obstructing relief effort constituted war crimes.Oil prices leapt 4% on Thursday after Iran vowed not to reopen the Hormuz strait amid the US naval blockade despite the truce extension. Around 0025 GMT, the benchmark US oil contract West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 4.06% to $96.73 a barrel, while the international oil benchmark Brent North Sea crude climbed 3.62% to $105.63. Both eased back minutes after.Two Palestinians, including a 14-year-old schoolboy, were killed in the occupied West Bank after Israeli settlers opened fire near a school amid mounting assaults on education in the territory, witnesses and local officials have said.United Airlines implemented broad-based rises of 15-20% on fares as it sought to offset the surge in petrol prices while protecting profits, executives said. The big US carrier has also cut its 2026 flying capacity by 5%. Continue reading...

Iran’s goal is to maintain chokehold on global economy even as some say it could run out of oil storage by SundayMiddle East crisis – live updatesDonald Trump’s indefinite shelving of the plan to bomb Iran’s bridges and power station on Tuesday night is being widely described as leaving the conflict in limbo, but that is anything but the truth.Pakistan insists the prospect of talks in Islamabad has not evaporated, and positive messages are still being exchanged, but in the meantime the site of kinetic activity has switched from land to sea. Both sides are vying to prove they can enforce their blockade of the strait of Hormuz more effectively than the other. It has become a form of gunboat diplomacy brought to life in the most significant geopolitical waterway in the world. Continue reading...