Tensions

• Amerikaanse president Donald Trump arriveerde op 13 mei 2026 in Beijing voor een staatsbezoek en gesprekken op hoog niveau met de Chinese president Xi Jinping over belangrijke bilaterale en mondiale kwesties. • Belangrijke agendapunten zijn de handelsgeschillen tussen de VS en China, toeleveringsketens van zeldzame aardmetalen, de politieke status van Taiwan, de concurrentie op het gebied van kunstmatige intelligentie en het aanhoudende conflict in Iran. • De top is een cruciale diplomatische ontmoeting die erop gericht is de strategische concurrentie tussen de VS en China te beheersen en de risico's op militaire escalatie te verminderen.

• Indian equities are expected to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments this week, with markets tracking the ongoing US-Iran situation and fluctuating crude oil prices that could trigger sharp movements in large-cap stocks. • Foreign investors have withdrawn Rs 14,231 crore from Indian equities so far in May amid global macroeconomic uncertainties, signaling reduced confidence in the market amid external headwinds. • Key macroeconomic releases this week include India's April CPI inflation data and US inflation prints (CPI and PPI), which analysts warn could materially shape Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations and global risk sentiment.

Israeli PM says he has ‘full coordination’ with US president amid reports that Washington no longer consults himBenjamin Netanyahu interrupted an uncharacteristically long silence over the Iran conflict this week with a video commentary insisting he had “full coordination” with Donald Trump, with whom he spoke “almost daily”.The insistence that all was rosy in the US-Israeli relationship followed weeks of reports in the domestic press that Israel was no longer being consulted over the Iran conflict, and even less over Pakistani-brokered peace talks. Such is the scepticism over Netanyahu’s trustworthiness among the general public and independent press that the immediate reaction among observers to his video statement was speculation that the reality could be even worse than they had imagined. Continue reading...

• Asian stock markets fell broadly on Friday as renewed clashes between the US and Iran strained ceasefire efforts, with missile and drone attacks prompting US retaliatory strikes on Iranian military facilities. • Tokyo's Nikkei 225 dropped 1.1% to 62,174, retreating from a record high of 62,833 reached Thursday, while SoftBank Group lost over 5% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.3% to 26,289. • Oil prices climbed amid Middle East uncertainty, with Brent crude rising 1.1% to $101.13 per barrel—roughly 44% higher than pre-war levels in late February.

• The US military carried out strikes targeting Iranian facilities in the Strait of Hormuz area on May 7, 2026, according to Pentagon statements, marking a significant escalation in ongoing US-Iran hostilities. • Iran's state media claimed the US violated a ceasefire agreement by targeting an Iranian tanker, while the Pentagon stated it targeted Iranian facilities responsible for attacks on US forces. • The strikes occur amid negotiations over a potential nuclear deal, with Trump having previously issued ultimatums to Iran and allies, raising concerns about the fragility of diplomatic efforts.

• Asian stock markets retreated from recent record peaks as escalating Middle East tensions revived concerns over crude oil supply disruptions and energy price stability. • The geopolitical escalation triggered steep losses in oil markets, reversing earlier gains and creating volatility across regional equity indices. • Rising energy supply concerns underscore the fragility of the recent market rally despite strong AI sector performance, with investors reassessing risk exposure to conflict-affected regions.

Turmoil and violence rocks state since prime minister Narendra Modi’s party claimed victory in legislative electionTensions have been high in the Indian state of West Bengal after a top political aide from Narendra Modi’s party was shot dead in the street and hundreds were arrested as violence broke out following elections this week.The prime minister’s Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) claimed victory in the West Bengal elections on Monday, defeating Trinamool Congress (TMC), which had ruled over the state legislature for 15 years. Continue reading...

Profits jump to £122m at ticketing retailer but it expects flat or declining revenues over the coming year Business live – latest updatesTrainline has said the US standoff with Iran is hitting its revenues, with rail ticket sales to foreign visitors to Europe affected.The UK-based ticketing retailer said it expected revenues to stay flat or decline over the coming year, citing “the effects of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on inbound air traffic into Europe”. Continue reading...

• Market participants are repositioning portfolios toward companies with strong pricing power and defensive characteristics as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist. • Artificial intelligence-related equities continue attracting investor attention as a growth hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty. • The investment rotation reflects concerns about inflation persistence and the need for portfolio resilience in volatile market conditions.

• Thailand's foreign minister requested ASEAN-level discussions with his Myanmar counterpart to address escalating conflicts and diplomatic standoffs in the region. • The initiative comes in response to recent attacks and instability in Myanmar, prompting broader calls for coordinated ASEAN intervention. • This move highlights Thailand's leadership role in ASEAN diplomacy, aiming to prevent spillover effects on Southeast Asian security and trade.

• UBS, a Switzerland-based global financial firm, has lowered its GDP growth forecast for India in FY27 to 6.2 percent, representing a downward revision of 50 basis points due to intensifying oil crisis triggered by global tensions. • The Swiss brokerage attributes the slowdown to prolonged energy crisis stemming from Middle East conflict, severe supply chain disruptions, and rising inflation pressures across the Indian economy. • This downgrade reflects concerns about India's economic resilience amid external shocks, though the 6.2% growth rate still positions India among faster-growing major economies globally.

The launch of ‘Project Freedom’ in the strait of Hormuz has brought the region back to the brink of full-scale war. Plus: The electoral battle for CongressGood morning.Donald Trump has again raised the stakes in the Gulf region with the Monday launch of “Project Freedom” to open a route through the strait of Hormuz. More than 800 ships and roughly 20,000 crew members remain stranded in the region.Have any vessels made it out of the strait? US Central Command (Centcom) said two US-flagged merchant vessels had “successfully transited” the strait, but Iran has denied this claim. Late on Monday, the container shipping company Maersk said the Alliance Fairfax – a US-flagged vehicle carrier – exited the Gulf. Shipping industry experts remain skeptical about whether vessels will be able to travel safely to and from the Gulf under Trump’s plan.This is a developing story. Follow the liveblog here.How will this play into the overall battle for Congress? Red states, including Alabama and Tennessee, are rushing to revise their congressional maps after the original supreme court decision. On Monday, Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor, signed a gerrymandered congressional district map into law that gives Republicans an electoral advantage in four additional races in November’s midterm elections.How are Democrats fighting back? Eight candidates have been added to their slate of top contenders vying to reclaim a Democratic House majority in November’s midterm elections.When do voters head to the polls? Ohio voters will today select candidates before November’s midterm elections, including the candidates for Ohio’s Senate special election. Indiana voters also go to the polls today, with seven Republican state senators battling for re-election against candidates backed by Trump. Continue reading...

• Oil prices jumped above $100 per barrel and broke through $115 as Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude rising 6% amid U.S. efforts to free up shipping lanes. • The S&P 500 fell with all 11 sectors declining except energy (+0.9%); Dow Jones dropped approximately 1%, while Asia ex-Japan surged 2.8% led by KOSPI's 5% gain to new highs. • U.S. Treasury yields climbed across the curve by 7-10 basis points, with the 30-year Treasury clearing 5.0% as inflation pressures mount and the USD index moved higher above 98.

• Wall Street stocks traded mixed early Monday, May 4, 2026, as rising oil prices from Middle East conflict offset robust US corporate earnings expectations. • Oil prices edged higher after Iran's military warned it would attack US forces entering the Strait of Hormuz, following President Donald Trump's announcement to guide ships through the waterway. • Major indices remain near record highs, supported by encouraging inflation data and resilient earnings season, though investors eye the April jobs report.

Comments at European Political Community summit come as Britain seeks to join EU’s loan scheme for UkraineUK politics live – latest updatesKeir Starmer has acknowledged that “tensions” between Donald Trump and Europe are high as he attends a summit of the European Political Community dominated by the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran.With European leaders concerned over the US president’s waning interest in the Ukraine war, the prime minister will use the summit in Armenia to begin negotiations to participate in the European Union’s loan scheme for Kyiv. Continue reading...

• The Trump administration announced plans to withdraw approximately 5,000 US troops from Germany over the next 6-12 months. • The troop withdrawal fulfills an earlier Trump threat and reflects tensions over Germany's stance on the Iran conflict. • The move signals a broader shift in US military posture in Europe and could weaken NATO presence in a key strategic location.

• Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty closed lower after intraday swings, pressured by spiking crude oil prices above $90/barrel. • Foreign investor outflows accelerated to ₹15,000 crore in April, exacerbating downside in banking and energy sectors. • Auto and FMCG stocks like Maruti Suzuki and ITC provided limited support amid broader risk aversion.

• Market experts identify fundamentally strong value stocks as attractive investment opportunities following recent market corrections driven by geopolitical tensions and crude oil price volatility. • Analysts recommend disciplined investors focus on quality companies trading at depressed valuations rather than panic-driven selling, viewing current market weakness as potential entry points for long-term wealth creation. • Selective turnaround stocks and NBFC sector opportunities are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of market recovery, with emphasis on portfolio construction based on fundamental strength rather than technical indicators.

The Green party leader reshared a post on social media that appeared to show officers kicking the suspect in the Golders Green attack in the headFull report: Zack Polanski’s criticism of Golders Green attack arrest will have ‘chilling effect’, says Met chiefMorning, welcome to our UK politics blog.The Metropolitan police commissioner Mark Rowley has denied he was “intervening in politics” after he wrote an open letter to Zack Polanski over the way officers arrested the Golders Green attack suspect. Continue reading...

Fans in Buffalo, only a few miles from Ontario, filled the silence when a microphone cut out at the start of a matchThe Electric City. Nickle City. Queen City. City of No Illusions.Buffalo, New York, has accrued many nicknames over the years, but in an age of growing tensions between two traditional allies, one such epithet has taken on extra resonance: the City of Good Neighbors. Continue reading...

The regional bloc agreed to safeguard regional energy security through strengthened cooperation, timely policy responses and engagement with dialogue partners.

• The European Union announced new provisional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle batteries and solar components Monday, citing unfair state subsidies and predatory pricing that undercut European manufacturers. • Beijing warned the tariffs violate World Trade Organization rules and threatened retaliatory measures on European agricultural imports, escalating trade friction between the two economic blocs. • U.S. officials expressed support for the EU's move, viewing it as necessary protection for clean energy industries while signaling potential alignment on China trade policy.

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi returned to Islamabad on April 27, 2026, to push a new proposal through Pakistani mediators aimed at ending the US-Iran war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. • The proposal reached the White House, but President Trump canceled planned envoy visits by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, citing lack of progress, while indirect talks continue. • Araghchi headed to Moscow for talks with President Putin after blaming the US for failed peace efforts; Russia urged Washington to abandon ultimatums in Vienna negotiations.

• A military confrontation along the Kashmir border escalated Friday when Pakistani forces fired on Indian positions near Uri, killing 12 Indian soldiers and wounding 18 others in the deadliest incident in two years, Pakistani military sources confirmed. • India's military responded with retaliatory strikes, with New Delhi claiming to have neutralized three Pakistani military positions; Pakistan denied casualties on its side but acknowledged defensive operations. • Regional analysts expressed alarm that the incident could spiral into broader conflict, warning both nations possess nuclear arsenals and recent diplomatic tensions have left few de-escalation channels open.

• US stocks recently reached an all-time high even as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran dominate headlines, suggesting investor confidence in economic fundamentals. • The market surge occurs amid what analysts describe as a major market disruption cycle, with oil shocks and other disruptions rattling investors before receding. • The disconnect between headline risks and market performance highlights investor focus on sustained economic growth and underlying corporate fundamentals over short-term geopolitical concerns.

• Navy Secretary John Phelan was fired by the Pentagon on Wednesday night amid escalating tensions with Iran over the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. • The firing comes as the U.S. maintains military pressure on Iran, with reports indicating the blockade is costing Iran an estimated $500 million per day and pushing the regime toward economic collapse. • U.S. intelligence officials warn that Iran retains thousands of missiles and drones capable of threatening American interests in the region.

• Chinese military announced a temporary halt to provocative exercises around Taiwan following private diplomatic discussions between US and Chinese officials in Singapore this week. • Beijing stated the suspension aims to create space for constructive dialogue, though military analysts note China maintains its military posture in the Taiwan Strait. • The development provides cautious optimism for regional stability, with US officials emphasizing the importance of maintaining open communication channels to prevent miscalculation.

• Global financial markets experienced significant volatility during April 12-18, 2026, driven by geopolitical tensions impacting commodity prices. • Oil prices surged higher amid international tensions, affecting energy stocks and broader market sentiment across equities and bonds. • India's retail investor base continues reshaping capital markets, contributing to shifts in the financial landscape alongside global macroeconomic pressures.