Expectations

• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.52% Thursday following stronger-than-anticipated producer price inflation data released by the Labor Department, pushing expectations for prolonged higher rates. • Market participants reassessed bets on future rate cuts after Fed speakers emphasized the need for additional months of restrictive policy to bring inflation back toward target levels. • The yield curve steepened significantly, with the 2-year-10-year spread widening to 87 basis points, reflecting growing uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of eventual rate cuts.

• The Federal Open Market Committee met on March 17–18, 2026, noting uncertainty in the economic outlook with options markets pricing a 30% probability of rate hikes early next year. • Broad equity indexes declined sharply while S&P 500 one-month volatility rose, driven by investor concerns over Middle East developments weakening confidence. • Financing conditions stayed restrictive for households, small businesses, and commercial real estate due to high costs and tight underwriting, though corporate debt spreads remained narrow.

• The US Labor Department reported that employers added 178,000 jobs in March 2026, significantly surpassing economists' expectations of 60,000 jobs polled by LSEG. • The unemployment rate declined to 4.3% from 4.4% in February, lower than the projected 4.4%, with January revised up to 160,000 jobs and February down to 133,000. • This rebound follows February's unexpected job losses and signals labor market resilience despite geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.

Employers added 178,000 new jobs in March and unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, ahead of economists’ predictionsSign up for the Breaking News US email to get newsletter alerts in your inboxThe US labor market picked up in March as employers showed signs of resilience amid the US-Israel war in Iran.After an extraordinary contraction in February, employers added 178,000 jobs last month, ahead of economists’ expectations of about 70,000. Continue reading...

• Nike's stock tumbled 13.1% after the company reported better-than-expected quarterly profits but issued weak financial forecasts. • Investors reacted negatively to cautious guidance amid softening consumer demand and competitive pressures in apparel. • The drop underscores broader concerns in consumer discretionary stocks, impacting sector sentiment on Wall Street.

• Meta Platforms reported Q1 revenue of $39.1 billion, growing 27% year-over-year and substantially exceeding Wall Street consensus estimates, driven by robust advertising demand and improved cost management. • Average revenue per user (ARPU) in the United States increased 18% year-over-year to $54.62, reflecting higher-value ad inventory and refined targeting capabilities powered by artificial intelligence. • The company guided Q2 revenue at $37-39.5 billion, cautioning of seasonal moderation, though full-year guidance remains constructive and suggests sustained advertiser confidence despite macro uncertainty.

• The 10-year Treasury yield declined 18 basis points to 3.82% following the cooler-than-expected inflation reading, marking the steepest single-day drop in three months and reflecting a significant repricing of Fed rate cut probability. • Bond investors rushed into longer-duration securities as real yields compressed, with the 2-year Treasury sliding 12 basis points to 3.45%, indicating heightened expectations for near-term monetary easing. • The yield curve steepening trend accelerated, with the 10-2 spread widening to 37 basis points, suggesting market consensus that the Fed will begin cutting rates this spring while maintaining a measured approach to further reductions.

• Nvidia posted first-quarter revenue of $28.3 billion, representing a 106% year-over-year increase and surpassing Wall Street consensus forecasts by 8%, driven primarily by sustained demand for AI data center GPUs. • The chipmaker's gross margin expanded to 72.1%, the highest level in five quarters, as production efficiency gains and favorable product mix offset supply chain costs. • Guidance for Q2 revenue of $32-34 billion exceeded analyst estimates, reinforcing investor confidence in the artificial intelligence infrastructure boom and supporting semiconductor sector valuations amid broader market volatility.

Hopes that Sinners and One Battle After Another would bring in a big audience dashed as viewers fell to 17.9m, a 9% drop on last year’s 19.7mHopes had been high that the popularity of big hitters Sinners and One Battle After Another would translate into a bigger audience for the Oscars ceremony telecast. Yet numbers hit a four-year-low in the US, where the show reached 17.9 million viewers on ABC and Hulu, down about 9% from last year’s 19.7 million.Many had presumed the five-year high that 2025 represented was the product of interest in cinema bouncing back post-Covid – all the more cheering given that the movie that dominated, Sean Baker’s Anora, had not been a major box office player. Continue reading...

The US announced partial rollback of AI semiconductor export restrictions on March 13, 2026, targeting key technologies amid global competition. This move is poised to boost domestic chipmakers ahead of Nvidia's GTC event next week. Nvidia, HBM, and related AI plays face heightened focus with potential upside. Policy shift aims to balance national security and industry growth.

US Treasury yields increased during the week of March 13, 2026, after oil prices briefly exceeded $100 per barrel, prompting investors to delay expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts into later 2026. Markets now price in only one rate cut for the year, down from prior forecasts, as February CPI data appears outdated amid March's energy inflation spike. The bond market showed unhinged behavior amid fears of higher headline inflation, slower growth, and stagflation risks from sustained high oil prices. A prolonged oil elevation could pair high inflation with unemployment rises, complicating Fed policy.