Ahead

• Turkey is expressing skepticism regarding NATO's effectiveness and strategic role leading up to the upcoming alliance summit. • The analysis highlights growing tensions and doubts within the Turkish government concerning the alliance's ability to address regional security challenges. • This skepticism matters as Turkey is a key NATO member and a critical bridge between the alliance and the Middle East.

The new PM must balance the security budget and other urgent spending priorities, with little room for manoeuvreKeir Starmer’s defence investment plan leaves behind spending problems that his successor will not be able to avoid.Military budgets will be well short of the UK’s Nato commitments by the end of the decade, and European allies and a combustible White House are likely to notice. Continue reading...

• Major U.S. indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq jumping 2% driven by tech and communication services, while the Dow achieved a record closing high. • Gold prices declined by nearly 2% as investors reacted to renewed interest rate jitters following recent U.S.-Iran strikes. • These shifts highlight the market's sensitivity to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating expectations regarding monetary policy.

Defence investment plan, which was originally due in the autumn, criticised by Tories and Lib DemsGood morning. After Keir Starmer agreed to stand down next month to let Andy Burnham replace him, he said that he would not make major policy announcements in his final days in office. But there was one exemption; Starmer was committed to publishing the defence investment plan (Dip) before the Nato summit in Turkey next week, and he took the view that, since it was more or less ready, this was an existing policy commitment, not a new one.It is certainly a policy that has already consumed vast amounts of goverment time. The government published its strategic defence review (SDR) more than a year ago. The Dip, the plan setting out how much money ministers would commit to defence spending to meet the threats identified in the SDR, was originally due in the autumn. It is finally coming today – but only after triggering the resignation of John Healey as defence secretary earlier this month because he wanted defence spending to rise to 3% of GDP by 2030 – and was not happy about the Dip only lifting it to 2.68% by the end of the decade. The new defence secretary, Dan Jarvis, has squeezed a bit more out of the Treasury, and he will present the Dip in a statement to MPs later.This is too little, too late. Too little because it is barely more money than John Healey and Al Carns resigned over when they said Britain would be “less safe”. And too late because the plan is now almost a year overdue and only being rushed through because Keir Starmer is desperate for a legacy.This late and underfunded plan is unforgivable. It is a political choice that makes us all less safe, puts jobs at risk and threatens businesses across the country in supply chains.The government have dangerously short-changed our Armed Forces when they need urgent investment after years of Conservative negligence. Defence chiefs have been forced to make hard choices, when they should be given what they need. Continue reading...

• The Supreme Court ruled that state laws, rather than federal statutes, determine the deadlines for when mail-in ballots must be received and counted. • The decision follows a challenge by Republicans who argued that federal law required all ballots to be counted by Election Day instead of allowing a multi-day grace period. • The ruling is significant as it preserves the ability of various states to extend counting deadlines, potentially impacting the finality of midterm election results.

• Indian equities ended lower on Monday, with the Sensex dropping 372 points and the Nifty losing 110 points, ending a two-day rally. • The market decline was driven by profit booking and heightened investor anxiety regarding escalating tensions between Iran and the US. • Market analysts are currently recommending a "buy-on-dips" strategy, provided the Nifty remains above the critical support level of 23,800.

• Global markets are monitoring geopolitical tensions as Iran seeks diplomatic talks to stabilize regional volatility. • The FTSE 100 experienced a session where stocks pared losses, coinciding with the unveiling of a new plan by Andy Burnham. • Investors are anticipating a new list of AI stock recommendations for July following a previous high-performing selection that yielded a +223% return.