Betting

Experts say growing trend on sites such as Polymarket and Kalshi could motivate people to start fires to win moneyA group of US lawmakers is sounding the alarm over prediction market platforms that allow users to bet on wildfires, as experts warn the emerging trend could raise the risk of arson.Democratic senators from six states sent a letter this week to the chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), an independent government agency regulating platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, urging it to rein in the practice. Continue reading...

• Sports betting firms have launched a $72 million political influence campaign in the United States to shape industry regulations. • The spending is primarily aimed at fighting predatory tax rates and establishing "regulatory moats" to protect market share. • This strategy prioritizes corporate growth and regulatory stability over the implementation of responsible gaming laws.

• Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket are now allowing users to wager money on the outcomes of drug approvals. • Kalshi is further expanding these offerings by planning to enable betting on the specific results of clinical trials. • Experts and reporters, including Rebecca Robbins, warn that financial speculation on medical data could undermine public trust in clinical research.

• Goldman Sachs has increased its 12-month target for Japan's TOPIX index from 4,400 to 4,500, suggesting a potential upside of approximately 12%. • The firm's optimistic outlook is driven by expectations that a weak yen will significantly boost Japanese corporate earnings. • This move comes as the TOPIX remains only 2% below its all-time high set in June, outperforming other Asia-Pacific markets with a stable forward P/E ratio of 16x to 17x.

• Young investors in their 20s are increasingly allocating significant capital toward technology stocks, drawn by the potential for high rewards. • This trend coincides with governments and corporations investing hundreds of billions of dollars into the development of artificial intelligence. • Market skeptics are questioning whether AI technology will generate sufficient profitability to justify these massive financial outlays.

• Menlo Ventures saw a massive return on its $1 billion investment in Anthropic, which has grown to a valuation of approximately $14 billion. • Despite this success, analysts suggest that identifying the next breakout AI startup will become increasingly difficult as the market matures. • This trend highlights a shifting landscape for venture capital, where the era of easy, exponential gains from early AI bets may be ending.

Move comes as prediction platforms rapidly gain popularity and offer opportunities to bet on virtually anythingKalshi is expanding its wagers to include bets on drug trial results, an expansion into new predictions territory as platforms continue to rapidly gain popularity and offer opportunities to bet on virtually anything.The betting platform said the expansion into clinical trials and FDA regulatory decisions would help surface information on drug trials that otherwise go unreported. A publicly listed contract on a drug trial would produce a “continuously updated, public probability that reflects the weight of the evidence, rather than the preferred message of the trial sponsor”, the company said. Continue reading...