Expectations

Shares soar as yearly revenue up 93%, even as opposition grows to company’s role in Trump immigration agendaIn a sea of companies reporting mixed financial results this quarter, Palantir stands out. Although Palantir was not immune to the AI jitters that caused industry-wide drops in share prices earlier this year, the AI and analytics company reported that its overall revenue grew 93% year over year to $1.94bn. That’s well over the $1.8bn Wall Street expected Palantir to bring in for the second quarter.The glowing financials sparked a 10% surge in share prices in the immediate aftermath. Despite growing opposition to Palantir’s work with various governments including the crucial role the company plays in the Trump administration’s immigration agenda, Palantir’s revenue from US government contracts grew 90% year over year to $809m. Continue reading...

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision on July 29 following a two-day meeting that began on July 28. • The committee is evaluating critical economic indicators, including labor market conditions, economic growth, and inflation trends, to determine the policy outcome. • Investors are specifically focusing on the subsequent press conference by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh for signals regarding future rate adjustments.

• Singapore's economy grew by 5.7% in the second quarter, surpassing the 5.5% growth forecast by analysts. • While the expansion beat expectations, it represents a slowdown compared to the revised 6.3% growth recorded in the first quarter. • This advance GDP data provides a critical economic indicator as the nation's central bank prepares for its quarterly monetary policy decision later this month.

• The United States is scheduled to release its June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data this Tuesday, serving as a pivotal macroeconomic event for global markets. • The report follows a notable increase in inflation during May and comes amid volatility in oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. • This data is critical because it will influence the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy assessments and potential expectations for interest rate cuts.

• Major technology stocks are experiencing a deepening selloff, though the S&P 500 remains up approximately 73% year-to-date. • The current market volatility is characterized as a "round-trip" of gains from the past month rather than a full-scale market crash. • Investors are questioning whether upcoming AI-related earnings reports can justify the sky-high valuations and expectations currently priced into the sector.

• NATO allies are lowering their expectations for the current summit following an aggressive and critical entrance by U.S. President Donald Trump. • The atmosphere remains tense as Trump's grievances and posturing cast a shadow over the diplomatic proceedings, though officials note his behavior is not unexpected. • The summit's ultimate outcome—whether it results in alliance reassurance or a rupture—will likely be decided on Wednesday.

• Eurozone retail sales grew by an annualized rate of 1.6% in May, surpassing market expectations. • Jack Allen-Reynolds, Deputy Chief Eurozone Economist at Capital Economics, noted that this growth suggests the surge in energy prices will have a minimal impact on overall GDP. • The data is significant as it indicates resilient consumer spending despite economic pressures and fluctuating energy costs.

• The 2-year Treasury yield declined following the release of new economic data showing a cooling trend in U.S. job creation heading into the summer. • During a panel at the European Central Bank's annual policy conference in Sintra, Portugal, Kevin Warsh emphasized that current prices remain "too high." • Warsh signaled a commitment to the 2% inflation objective, warning that markets expecting the central bank to accept a higher target would be disappointed.

• China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) grew in June, though the growth rate fell slightly below market expectations. • The data indicates a slower-than-anticipated expansion in the industrial sector, reflecting potential headwinds in production and demand. • This trend is significant as it suggests a cooling of manufacturing momentum, which could impact China's broader economic recovery and global trade.

• Sportsbook operators report that betting on the 2026 World Cup has surged past expectations, setting new records for the event. • The surge is driven by the tournament being hosted in North America, which allows U.S. audiences to attend and watch matches live. • High expectations for the U.S. national team and the presence of global stars like Lionel Messi are fueling increased wagering activity.

• Sportsbook operators are reporting record-breaking betting activity for the 2026 World Cup, with volume surging past initial expectations. • The surge is driven by the tournament being hosted in North America, which allows U.S. audiences to attend and watch matches live. • Increased interest is further fueled by high expectations for the U.S. national team and the presence of global stars like Lionel Messi.

• UK households' inflation expectations declined further in the June Citi-YouGov survey, signaling that price concerns are becoming less entrenched. • Citi economist Callum McLaren-Stewart noted that readings have returned to levels seen before the conflict, suggesting a reduced risk of inflation expectations becoming "deanchored." • This trend is significant as it indicates growing consumer confidence in the Bank of England's ability to successfully control price pressures.

• The U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at a rate that surpassed market expectations, signaling unexpected economic strength. • As a primary indicator of overall health, the GDP measures the total value of all goods and services produced within the country, adjusted for inflation. • This stronger-than-expected growth is significant because it is likely to influence future economic policy decisions and boost positive market sentiment.

• South Korea achieved a historic milestone in 2026 by surpassing ten million foreign arrivals earlier than ever before. • The surge is primarily driven by strong demand from China, Japan, and Taiwan, as well as growing middle-class travel from the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia. • This growth is attributed to improved air connectivity, the global popularity of Korean entertainment, and a significant increase in visitor spending.

• Tech stocks triggered a broad market decline as investors grew concerned over the massive capital expenditures of AI companies and rising interest rate expectations. • Alphabet reported a 47% drop in Q1 free cash flow, contributing to a trend where combined hyperscaler AI spending has now surpassed $452 billion. • The sell-off highlights a growing tension between the heavy costs of building AI infrastructure and the uncertain timing of when these investments will generate significant profits.

• Experts at the ET Alpha Wealth Summit, including Kailash Kulkarni, asserted that AI should be viewed as a growth enabler for India rather than a threat to the workforce. • India's economic growth is diversifying, with a shift toward manufacturing exports and new trade deals as primary drivers of expansion. • A warning was issued regarding the "financialization of savings," cautioning investors against inflated return expectations in a volatile market.

• Markets are preparing for the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, focusing on inflation expectations and their impact on cross-asset repricing. • Analysis centers on the interplay between economic resilience, which supports earnings and growth, and persistent inflation that threatens to drive up yields. • Key assets under observation include Gold Spot, the US Dollar Index, S&P 500, and WTI Crude Oil futures to gauge investor positioning.

• Japan's Nikkei benchmark index surged 2.75% to reach a historic all-time high of 65,081.96, crossing the 65,000 mark for the first time. • The rally occurred amid thin holiday trading across Asia, with the broader Topix index also rising 0.65% while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 remained largely unchanged. • Market sentiment was influenced by slumping oil prices driven by expectations of a potential deal involving Iran.

• Nvidia reported a significant revenue surge of 85%, beating market expectations driven by the ongoing artificial intelligence boom. • Despite the strong financial performance, the company's shares slipped in late trading as investors expressed caution. • The decline is attributed to intensifying competition and the trend of major big tech customers developing their own in-house AI alternatives.

Many analysts view company’s financial performance as a broader referendum on AI buildoutNvidia continued its years-long streak of beating Wall Street’s expectations for growth on Wednesday, reassuring most investors that the AI boom, particularly the global explosion of datacenters, will continue apace.“The buildout of AI factories – the largest infrastructure expansion in human history – is accelerating at extraordinary speed,” said Nvidia’s CEO, Jensen Huang, in a statement. “Agentic AI has arrived, doing productive work, generating real value, and scaling rapidly across companies and industries.” Continue reading...

• Expected S&P 500 earnings growth for Q1 has doubled to 28% since early April, fueled by upward revisions across sectors. • Mega-cap tech stocks, dubbed the 'Magnificent Seven,' account for 55% of quarterly and 37% of annual growth, comprising a third of index market cap. • This momentum propelled the S&P 500 to a 10% gain in April, its best month since November 2020, amid AI-driven revenues.

• ExxonMobil and Chevron both surpassed profit expectations in their latest quarterly reports. • Shares of the energy majors remained muted despite the beats, pressured by Iran's submission of a new agreement proposal to the US for resuming Persian Gulf oil exports. • The developments contributed to a broader pullback in oil prices, supporting gains in US equities.

Company reported $111.2bn in revenue in first earnings report after announcement of Cook’s pending departureApple blew past Wall Street expectations in its first earnings report since it announced CEO Tim Cook would be stepping down.Cook reported Apple’s “best March quarter ever” and “double-digit growth across every geographic segment”. He also noted “extraordinary demand for the iPhone17 lineup”. Continue reading...

• An undisclosed major corporation reported a significant top and bottom line beat, demonstrating stronger-than-expected financial performance in its latest earnings announcement. • The company reaffirmed its full-year earnings forecast and reiterated long-term growth targets of 9% annual growth through 2027, followed by growth from 2027 through 2030. • The earnings beat and maintained guidance suggest management confidence in sustained profitability and operational execution.

• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.52% Thursday following stronger-than-anticipated producer price inflation data released by the Labor Department, pushing expectations for prolonged higher rates. • Market participants reassessed bets on future rate cuts after Fed speakers emphasized the need for additional months of restrictive policy to bring inflation back toward target levels. • The yield curve steepened significantly, with the 2-year-10-year spread widening to 87 basis points, reflecting growing uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of eventual rate cuts.

• The Federal Open Market Committee met on March 17–18, 2026, noting uncertainty in the economic outlook with options markets pricing a 30% probability of rate hikes early next year. • Broad equity indexes declined sharply while S&P 500 one-month volatility rose, driven by investor concerns over Middle East developments weakening confidence. • Financing conditions stayed restrictive for households, small businesses, and commercial real estate due to high costs and tight underwriting, though corporate debt spreads remained narrow.

• The US Labor Department reported that employers added 178,000 jobs in March 2026, significantly surpassing economists' expectations of 60,000 jobs polled by LSEG. • The unemployment rate declined to 4.3% from 4.4% in February, lower than the projected 4.4%, with January revised up to 160,000 jobs and February down to 133,000. • This rebound follows February's unexpected job losses and signals labor market resilience despite geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.

Employers added 178,000 new jobs in March and unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, ahead of economists’ predictionsSign up for the Breaking News US email to get newsletter alerts in your inboxThe US labor market picked up in March as employers showed signs of resilience amid the US-Israel war in Iran.After an extraordinary contraction in February, employers added 178,000 jobs last month, ahead of economists’ expectations of about 70,000. Continue reading...