Federal Reserve

• The Federal Reserve's policy committee decided to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% on March 18, 2026, citing elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook and the implications of Middle East developments for the U.S. economy. • The Fed noted that while economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, job gains have remained low and unemployment rates have shown little change, with inflation remaining somewhat elevated above the 2% target. • The Committee signaled readiness to adjust monetary policy if risks emerge that could hinder maximum employment and price stability, indicating a cautious stance given current geopolitical and economic headwinds.

• The Federal Reserve opened a two-day monetary policy meeting this week with a rate decision expected Wednesday, as officials evaluate the impact of surging oil prices and Middle East conflict on inflation trajectories. • Uncertainty around geopolitical fallout is deepening divisions within the central bank over the interest rate path forward; officials are widely expected to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday despite elevated crude prices. • Rising oil and gasoline prices are weighing on earnings estimates and consumer spending forecasts, creating additional complexity for Fed policymakers balancing inflation and growth concerns.

• A federal judge on March 14, 2026, blocked subpoenas directed at the Federal Reserve by the Justice Department, hitting an institutional guardrail for the Trump administration. • The ruling delays confirmation of Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair, with Republican Senator Thom Tillis warning of prolonged process; DOJ plans to appeal. • This occurs amid fading confidence in US trade policy and fiscal credibility, maintaining bearish USD views.

A federal judge on Friday threw out two Justice Department subpoenas targeting the Federal Reserve, ruling them improper in U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro's criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell. U.S. District Judge James Boasberg, in a 27-page opinion, stated the subpoenas' dominant purpose was to harass Powell amid President Trump's public attacks, handing a victory to the central bank. The decision underscores escalating tensions between the Trump administration and the Fed, potentially delaying probes into monetary policy decisions. Legal experts anticipate appeals as the case highlights executive-branch overreach concerns.

A federal judge on Friday threw out two Justice Department subpoenas issued to the Federal Reserve, ruling them improper in U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro's criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell. U.S. District Judge James Boasberg, an Obama appointee, stated in a 27-page opinion that the subpoenas' dominant purpose appeared to harass Powell into yielding to President Trump or resigning. The decision represents a significant setback for the Trump administration's efforts to pressure the independent central bank amid public attacks on Powell. Legal experts anticipate appeals, potentially escalating tensions between the executive branch and judicial oversight of monetary policy.

A judge rejected subpoenas targeting Fed Chair Jerome Powell on March 13, 2026, preventing potential disruptions during a tense market session as indexes fell. The decision came amid broader equity declines, with S&P 500 down 0.5% and Nasdaq off 0.67% in afternoon trading. This ruling stabilizes central bank communications at a critical juncture for monetary policy amid inflation pressures. Markets may now focus on upcoming PCE data releases without subpoena overhang.

A judge rejected a subpoena for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on March 13, 2026, blocking forced testimony amid ongoing investigations. The decision came during heightened market volatility from oil prices and geopolitical risks, stabilizing expectations for central bank independence. Markets reacted positively in S&P 500 futures, reducing uncertainty over Fed policy signals. This ruling may delay further probes into 2025-2026 rate decisions.