Rate Hike

• The Federal Reserve unanimously decided to keep interest rates steady at a range of 3.5% to 3.75% during its first meeting under new chair Kevin Warsh. • Despite the hold, the Open Markets Committee signaled a potential rate hike before the end of the year, citing that economic activity is currently expanding at a "solid pace." • US stock markets reacted negatively to the signal of future tightening, experiencing a drop on Wednesday afternoon.

• The European Central Bank (ECB) has raised interest rates by 0.25%, marking the first increase in three years. • President Christine Lagarde defended the decision, citing inflation pressures driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. • The move comes amid warnings of stagflation in the Eurozone, with critics arguing that higher rates could hinder critical investments in clean energy.

• Markets anticipate that the European Central Bank (ECB) will implement a 25-basis-point interest rate hike, marking the first increase since 2023. • The ECB Council is expected to avoid providing explicit forward guidance on future rate paths, opting instead for a flexible approach. • This shift signifies a commitment to a "data-dependent" and "meeting-by-meeting" strategy to determine monetary policy.

• Global tech stocks have experienced a significant plunge as the previous AI-driven rally undergoes a market correction. • The selloff is being driven by increasing investor bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes and a strengthening U.S. dollar. • This volatility highlights the market's sensitivity to monetary policy and the sustainability of high valuations within the AI sector.

• The US economy added 172,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in May, significantly exceeding previous forecasts according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. • Employment growth was primarily driven by gains in health care, local government, and the leisure and hospitality sectors, while financial activities saw a decline. • This stronger-than-expected job growth is fueling market bets that the Federal Reserve may implement further interest rate hikes to combat inflation.

• Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled potential interest rate action in June, stating he will debate the "pros and cons" of a hike. • Ueda emphasized that the central bank must prioritize the risk of an inflation overshoot caused by Middle East conflicts and rising crude oil prices over potential economic downturns. • The decision is driven by the "secondary spillover effects" of energy shocks, which the BOJ believes are more likely to push underlying inflation above targets.

• Inflation rose across the Eurozone's four largest economies in May, primarily driven by an increase in energy prices. • The trend has intensified expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates during its upcoming June meeting. • Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta highlighted that ongoing conflict in Iran and potential supply chain disruptions necessitate a hawkish intervention.

Lenders increase borrowing rates by 0.25%; pro-Palestine meeting barred from council venue goes ahead outside in Darlington. Follow updates liveGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastNext week’s federal budget will fund a dedicated national centre to detect and disrupt the evolving threat of online violent extremism and terrorism.The home affairs minister, Tony Burke, will announce the $74m in funding over two years for the project on Wednesday. It is part of the government’s response to the Bondi terror attack in December.A bolstered online threat capability will give AFP and Asio the resources they need to target terrorists and violent extremists online.Just because I, and other people, might find it personally offensive does not mean that governments have unlimited power to constitutionally strike down the right of everybody else to freedom of political communication. Continue reading...

Reserve Bank of Australia raises rates for third consecutive meeting, lifting them to early-2025 levels Follow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastThe Reserve Bank has delivered a third straight interest rate hike, as it seeks to head off the inflationary threat from higher fuel prices linked to the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran.A week out from what the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, is simultaneously calling his most ambitious and responsible budget yet, the widely anticipated decision to increase the cash rate to 4.35% from 4.1% comes amid growing worries about the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict. Continue reading...

While interest rate rises can’t affect the surging price of oil caused by Middle East turmoil, they are still the Reserve Bank’s best – and only – tool to fight inflationFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastOne economist is calling it the “Hormuz hike”.There’s a nearly 80% chance that the Reserve Bank will deliver a third straight interest rate rise on Tuesday, according to financial markets.Patrick Commins is Guardian Australia’s economics editor Continue reading...

Injecting $1.5bn via petrol subsidies into an inflated economy may change things for the Reserve Bank board at its next meetingFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastEconomists will say that what millions of motorists gain in cheaper fuel through the prime minister’s three-month fuel excise cut, they will lose in more expensive mortgages.It may be good politics, but injecting $1.5bn via petrol subsidies into an economy that is already struggling with a resurgent inflationary problem is not going to make the Reserve Bank of Australia’s job any easier. Continue reading...

Homebuyers lose confidence amid higher rates and Iran war-linked price rises across the economy, buyers agent saysFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastSurging numbers of homes are being passed in at auction as higher interest rates weigh on demand and the number of properties for sale hits highs not seen since 2021.The national auction clearance rate last week was just under 57%, the lowest this year, with Sydney’s at 55%, Cotality data shows. The remainder includes both houses that did not sell at auction and houses withdrawn before auction. Continue reading...

• Rising yields across US and international bond markets reflect growing inflation expectations stemming from the energy shock caused by the Iran-US conflict, with 10-year gilts rising 14 basis points. • Market participants are increasingly betting on a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year as inflation anchoring concerns mount amid geopolitical disruptions to energy supplies. • The bond market deterioration follows Friday's significant equity selloff and signals potential monetary policy tightening ahead, with the Fed focused on ensuring inflation expectations remain anchored despite external supply shocks.

Borrowers face losing hundreds of dollars a month in higher repayments and rising pump rices will add to the pain, economists warnFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastSurging interest rates and petrol prices have stripped more than $1bn a month from Australian household budgets as economists warn of recession risks.Consumers are preparing for rates to surpass their recent highs after the Reserve Bank delivered back-to-back hikes ahead of an inflation spike driven by the US war on Iran. Continue reading...

Energy minister says it will take ‘some time’ for extra supply to reach regional areas. Follow today’s news liveGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastThe energy minister, Chris Bowen, says it will take “some time” for the petrol and disesel released from Australia’s domestic stockpile to reach areas hit by shortages.On Friday, the Albanese government directed fuel companies to release nearly a fifth of reserve petrol and diesel supplies. Dozens of service stations across the country have run out of petrol as retailers struggle with customers panic-buying in response to skyrocketing prices from the Middle East conflict.There will be some time for it to flow through. There’s a very complicated supply chain.But it is going to have an impact. Some companies have said it will start to have an impact in coming days, to some degree. But there will be some time before it’s all released. Continue reading...