War Persists

• The OECD has lowered its 2026 global growth forecast, warning that ongoing conflict in the Middle East is damaging worldwide economic prospects. • A more severe economic shock is predicted if an effective ceasefire is not reached before 2027, though some impacts may be offset by tighter fiscal policies and the end of the NextGenerationEU recovery spending. • Specifically in the United Kingdom, growth is projected to drop from 1.4% in 2025 to 0.9% in 2026.

• Major US stock indexes fell on March 25 with the S&P 500 dropping 24.63 points (0.4%) to 6,556.37, the Dow Jones declining 84.41 points (0.2%) to 46,124.06, and the Nasdaq sinking 184.87 points (0.8%) to 21,761.89. • Oil prices rose as investors remain uncertain about the duration and impact of the Iran conflict on Persian Gulf energy supplies, with the two-year Treasury yield climbing to 3.92% from 3.83% on concerns about inflation. • The market pullback reflected renewed caution after rallies the previous day, as traders have nearly eliminated bets for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year due to elevated inflation risks from surging oil prices.

The US is sending 2,500 additional Marines and an amphibious assault ship to the Middle East, nearly two weeks into the war with Iran, according to anonymous officials. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated all military assets are focused on destroying Iran's offensive capabilities amid ongoing missile and drone exchanges. The deployment responds to rising US casualties, now at 13, and Iran's disruption of the Strait of Hormuz affecting global oil flows. President Trump anticipates Iranian pressure tactics but vows to keep the strait open.