Escalation

UK suffers sharpest downgrade and is predicted to face joint highest inflation in G7 as growth forecasts are cutBusiness live – latest updatesA further escalation in the Iran war could trigger a global recession, spiralling inflation and a sharp backlash in financial markets, the International Monetary Fund has warned.Against an increasingly volatile backdrop, the Washington-based fund said the economic damage from the Middle East conflict was steadily rising as it cut its growth forecasts for 2026 based on the impact from the war so far. Continue reading...

• Israeli warplanes conducted targeted strikes against Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon on April 9, resulting in significant structural damage to militant infrastructure, prompting retaliatory rocket fire across the Lebanese-Israeli border into northern Israel. • The UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) reported 12 cross-border missile launches from Lebanon and three Israeli air sorties within a 24-hour period, marking the most intense exchange since last month's ceasefire agreement. • Regional diplomatic channels convened emergency talks through US and French intermediaries, with UN Secretary-General expressing concern that "uncontrolled escalation could trigger wider Middle Eastern conflict" involving additional state and non-state actors.

• Pakistani and Indian troops exchanged heavy artillery fire across the Line of Control in Kashmir on April 8, 2026, killing 7 Pakistani and 5 Indian soldiers. • Pakistan accused India of initiating the clash near Uri sector; India claimed retaliation to 'unprovoked shelling' that hit civilian areas. • The incident risks broader conflict between nuclear powers, prompting US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to call for 'immediate ceasefire' in talks with both nations.

• President Trump threatened to destroy Iran's power plants and bridges if Tehran refuses a deal to end the war by Tuesday evening, amid a Pakistani ceasefire push. • Trump detailed a complex U.S. military operation that rescued the two-man crew of an F-15 shot down Friday in Iran, calling it one of the largest and most harrowing missions ever. • The threat looms over diplomatic efforts, including a 45-day ceasefire proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and avert major escalation.

• A US fighter jet was shot down over Iran as military tensions between Washington and Tehran intensify dramatically. • The incident marks a significant escalation in direct military confrontation between the two nations amid ongoing threats and counter-threats. • US forces have deployed advanced long-range missile systems in response, positioning for potential large-scale operations.

• US forces under the Trump administration successfully rescued a second missing pilot in a tactical operation, demonstrating continued military capability amid the 37-day conflict with Iran. • The rescue allows the US to maintain focus on its ultimatum demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face military consequences, with a 10-day pause on strikes against Iran's energy plants.

• Türkiye positions itself at the center of diplomatic initiatives and alternative energy transit routes as U.S.-Israel-Iran hostilities enter their second month. • Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan conducted intense phone diplomacy and Gulf trips, coordinating with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan on ceasefire frameworks. • Ankara prioritizes preventing escalation, staying outside direct hostilities while warning against conflict expansion amid surging global oil prices.