Geopolitical

• US S&P 500 futures hovered near flat Friday morning as investors balanced elevated borrowing costs, sticky inflation and Middle East tensions pushing energy prices. • 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.41%, pressuring credit cards and business loans, while 30-year mortgage rates reached 6.38%, making home buying costlier. • Spain's inflation at 3.3% underscores persistent living costs; interest-rate sensitive sectors like banks, real estate and small caps face tighter credit conditions.

• JPMorgan revised its 2026 S&P 500 year-end price target down to 7,200 from 7,500, citing rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions as key headwinds to earnings. • The bank warned the index could slide to as low as 6,000 in the near term if current pressures intensify, with 6,000 to 6,200 identified as potential support levels if recession risks escalate. • The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,506.48, down 1.51%, marking its fourth consecutive weekly loss and lowest level in six months amid AI monetization doubts and Fed rate-cut expectations reversing.

• Wall Street experienced a sharp selloff on Wednesday, March 19, 2026, driven by intensifying geopolitical conflicts between the U.S.-Israel force and Iran, sending major indices to their lowest closes of the year. • The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.6% or 768.11 points to 46,225.15, with 28 of 30 components declining; the S&P 500 dropped 1.4% to 6,624.70; and the Nasdaq Composite slid 1.5% or 327.11 points to 22,152.42. • The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged 12.2% to 25.09, reflecting elevated market fear and uncertainty about Middle East implications for the U.S. economy.

• The S&P 500 declined 1.6% last week, marking its third consecutive weekly drop, with the Dow falling 2% and Nasdaq shedding 1.3% due to soaring oil prices and broad market selling. • Surging oil prices from geopolitical tensions, including US-Iran escalation, drove the downturn, as investors brace for NVIDIA GTC AI event and FOMC rate decision this week (March 16-20, 2026). • Markets now price only a 33% chance of a June rate cut, down from 57% last month, amid persistent inflation data; Thursday's jobless claims will gauge labor market health.

• The S&P 500 declined 1.6% for its third consecutive weekly loss, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2% and the NASDAQ shed 1.3% as geopolitical tensions and surging oil prices created broad selling pressure across all major indices. • Investors face a critical week ahead with the NVIDIA GTC conference (the "AI Oscars") scheduled alongside the Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday and jobless claims data on Thursday. • Persistent inflation has dramatically shifted market expectations, with traders pricing in just a 33% probability of a June rate cut compared to 57% one month ago, reflecting heightened uncertainty about the Fed's monetary policy path.

The US stock market displayed divergent performance on Friday, March 13, 2026, with the S&P 500 falling to 6,658 (down 14 points), the Nasdaq dropping 100 points to 22,211, while the Dow Jones held relatively steady near 46,702 amid rising geopolitical tensions and volatile oil prices. The VIX volatility index remained elevated at 26.49, signaling sustained market uncertainty, and the S&P 500 is tracking its first three-week losing streak in approximately one year, down roughly 1.1% for the week. Institutional investors and hedge funds reduced risk positions ahead of the weekend, with analysts attributing the decline to normal profit-taking after strong gains in AI and semiconductor stocks earlier in 2026. Key market watchers noted that smart money was likely to remain in defensive positions until clarity emerged regarding the Strait of Hormuz and potential ceasefire negotiations.