• Regional diplomats from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt met in Pakistan on Sunday to establish a framework for direct US-Iran negotiations, with foreign ministers expected to reconvene Monday to discuss peace terms.
• Iran's parliament speaker Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf warned that Iranian forces are "waiting for the arrival of American troops on the ground to set them on fire," while dismissing the US 15-point action list as negotiating under pressure.
• The US has deployed thousands of troops to the Middle East including 2,500 Marines aboard USS Tripoli and elements of the 82nd Airborne Division, signaling preparations for potential ground operations despite diplomatic efforts.
Tehran skeptical of president’s offer – and troop deployments for potential ground operations suggest claim of imminent end to war not credibleSomewhere between the strait of Hormuz and the screens of Bloomberg terminals around the world, the standard laws of cause and effect appear to have been suspended for Donald Trump’s war in Iran.Trump this week soft-launched his latest Iran peace talks – which he has said must be accepted or “we’ll just keep bombing our little hearts out” – with few details or proof that anyone in the Iranian regime was willing to listen to him. The ultimatum was described as “maximalist” by Iran and quickly derided as a non-starter by analysts and former government officials. Continue reading...
Markets in Asia and Europe move higher, while crude hovers at about $100 a barrel amid cautious optimismBusiness live – latest updatesThe price of oil has dipped and Asian stock markets moved higher after reports that Donald Trump has sent a 15-point framework for peace to Iran, amid hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East.Oil prices had fallen by 4% in the early hours of Wednesday, with brent crude futures sinking below $100 a barrel and even moving as low as $97.57 as trading was influenced by the prospect of an end to the conflict easing the squeeze on oil supply. Continue reading...
Iran Guards said they fired missiles at Israel and US forces in bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain; crude oil prices fall sharply in early tradingTrump’s rehashed 15-point Iran plan unlikely to appease TehranDisruptions to international fertiliser supplies caused by the closing of the strait of Hormuz will cause food scarcity and high prices, the World Trade Organisation’s deputy director general, Jean-Marie Paugam, told Agence France-Press.A third of the world’s fertilisers normally transit the strait, which has been virtually closed by Iran since the start of the war. Continue reading...
Diplomatic sources say negotiations in Islamabad may begin next week, though no formal agreement is in placeMiddle East crisis – live updatesPakistan’s military leadership has been attempting to broker negotiations between the US and Iran, after the White House confirmed that Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, had a phonecall with Donald Trump on Sunday to discuss the conflict.Diplomatic sources said the US and Iran could meet for negotiations in Islamabad as early as this week, to discuss an end to the war which began almost a month ago. Continue reading...
In today’s newsletter: As drones and missiles hit Dubai, Doha and other sites across the Gulf, Hannah Ellis Peterson explains what happens next for the regionMorning everyone, I’m Patrick Greenfield – you may recognise the name from my environment reporting over the years (or perhaps you read my piece about the possible rebirth of a long-extinct 12ft bird). I’ll be joining you on First Edition for the next few months, where I will inevitably be turning my attention to some rather more worrisome news than the Jurassic Park-adjacent ambitions of a US startup.On that note: no Gulf state wanted war with Iran. But, as fighting in the Middle East enters its third week, the region finds itself on the frontline of an increasingly intractable conflict. After the US-Israeli attack on Iran in late February, drones and missiles have showered the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia – bringing the region’s oil and gas industries to a near standstill, and prompting an exodus of tourists and expats.UK news | Keir Starmer has said the UK will not be drawn into the wider war in the Middle East, after Donald Trump called for allies to send warships to the strait of Hormuz to help unblock global oil supplies from the region. Starmer also announced that households reliant on heating oil to warm their homes would receive £53m of government support to help with their bills.Health | A sixth-form student at Queen Elizabeth’s grammar school in Faversham has been confirmed as the second person to have died after an outbreak of meningitis in Kent.Environment | Realtime pollution alerts are urgently needed across Windermere, campaigners have said, as the mother of a seven-year-old boy who kayaked on the lake described how he nearly died after contracting a dangerous strain of E coli from contaminated water.Media | The BBC has asked a US court to throw out Donald Trump’s $10bn (£7.5bn) lawsuit over the way a documentary edited one of his speeches, warning that proceeding with the case would have a “chilling effect” on its reporting on the president.Energy | Belgium’s prime minister, Bart De Wever, has been criticised for calling for the normalisation of relations with Russia to re-establish cheap energy supplies. Continue reading...
Image: NBC 15