Yields

• Asian stocks rose on Friday, with gains in Japan, South Korea and Australia pushing the MSCI Asia Pacific Index higher after Wall Street gauges hit records. • The move was driven by the AI trade, strong corporate earnings and resilient U.S. consumer data, while Nvidia's six-day rally brought its market value closer to $6 trillion. • U.S. two-year Treasury yields traded at 4.03%, the highest since June, and Japan's 10-year government bond yield climbed after producer prices hit their highest level since 2023.

• A failed peace proposal over the weekend propelled oil prices and 10-year Treasury yields higher on Monday morning, with equity futures opening modestly lower. • Markets shrugged off geopolitical risks last week as oil declined on Iran ceasefire comments, but renewed tensions reversed that trend amid global energy volatility. • Gas prices rose nationwide, complicating inflation outlook with headline CPI above 3.5% despite easing core PCE, dimming Fed rate cut prospects.

• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.52% Thursday following stronger-than-anticipated producer price inflation data released by the Labor Department, pushing expectations for prolonged higher rates. • Market participants reassessed bets on future rate cuts after Fed speakers emphasized the need for additional months of restrictive policy to bring inflation back toward target levels. • The yield curve steepened significantly, with the 2-year-10-year spread widening to 87 basis points, reflecting growing uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of eventual rate cuts.

• The 10-year Treasury yield declined 18 basis points to 3.82% following the cooler-than-expected inflation reading, marking the steepest single-day drop in three months and reflecting a significant repricing of Fed rate cut probability. • Bond investors rushed into longer-duration securities as real yields compressed, with the 2-year Treasury sliding 12 basis points to 3.45%, indicating heightened expectations for near-term monetary easing. • The yield curve steepening trend accelerated, with the 10-2 spread widening to 37 basis points, suggesting market consensus that the Fed will begin cutting rates this spring while maintaining a measured approach to further reductions.

• US S&P 500 futures hovered near flat Friday morning as investors balanced elevated borrowing costs, sticky inflation and Middle East tensions pushing energy prices. • 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.41%, pressuring credit cards and business loans, while 30-year mortgage rates reached 6.38%, making home buying costlier. • Spain's inflation at 3.3% underscores persistent living costs; interest-rate sensitive sectors like banks, real estate and small caps face tighter credit conditions.

US Treasury yields increased during the week of March 13, 2026, after oil prices briefly exceeded $100 per barrel, prompting investors to delay expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts into later 2026. Markets now price in only one rate cut for the year, down from prior forecasts, as February CPI data appears outdated amid March's energy inflation spike. The bond market showed unhinged behavior amid fears of higher headline inflation, slower growth, and stagflation risks from sustained high oil prices. A prolonged oil elevation could pair high inflation with unemployment rises, complicating Fed policy.