Treasury

• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.52% Thursday following stronger-than-anticipated producer price inflation data released by the Labor Department, pushing expectations for prolonged higher rates. • Market participants reassessed bets on future rate cuts after Fed speakers emphasized the need for additional months of restrictive policy to bring inflation back toward target levels. • The yield curve steepened significantly, with the 2-year-10-year spread widening to 87 basis points, reflecting growing uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of eventual rate cuts.

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that 2026 tax filing season refunds are up more than 10% nationwide compared to last year, with working Americans poised for immediate take-home pay increases via withholding changes. • The gains stem from broader economic policies under President Trump, including Trump Accounts to expand benefits from the vibrant economy to more citizens. • This reflects efforts to return money to American workers, families, and businesses, ushering in a new era of growth amid strong IRS performance.

• The 10-year Treasury yield declined 18 basis points to 3.82% following the cooler-than-expected inflation reading, marking the steepest single-day drop in three months and reflecting a significant repricing of Fed rate cut probability. • Bond investors rushed into longer-duration securities as real yields compressed, with the 2-year Treasury sliding 12 basis points to 3.45%, indicating heightened expectations for near-term monetary easing. • The yield curve steepening trend accelerated, with the 10-2 spread widening to 37 basis points, suggesting market consensus that the Fed will begin cutting rates this spring while maintaining a measured approach to further reductions.

Treasury department said Financial Times article about Scott Bessent’s views on Fed oversight was ‘manufactured’ The US treasury department demanded on Friday that the Financial Times (FT) retract a report on treasury secretary Scott Bessent’s views on the Federal Reserve, accusing the newspaper of publishing “false claims” in a formal complaint that was escalated to the news outlet’s parent company, Nikkei Inc.The email from treasury officials, addressed to senior editors at the FT and Nikkei, disputed multiple claims in the story and criticized the headline as misrepresenting the underlying reporting. Continue reading...

• US S&P 500 futures hovered near flat Friday morning as investors balanced elevated borrowing costs, sticky inflation and Middle East tensions pushing energy prices. • 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.41%, pressuring credit cards and business loans, while 30-year mortgage rates reached 6.38%, making home buying costlier. • Spain's inflation at 3.3% underscores persistent living costs; interest-rate sensitive sectors like banks, real estate and small caps face tighter credit conditions.

• The US Treasury Department is preparing to place President Donald Trump's signature on every new US paper bill, marking the first time for a sitting president, according to an anonymous Treasury official speaking to the Associated Press on Thursday. • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's signature will also appear, with Bessent stating 'there is no more powerful way to recognize the historic achievements of our great country' than with dollar bills bearing Trump's name. • This initiative coincides with efforts to feature Trump's image on a 24-karat gold commemorative coin for America's 250th birthday on July 4, approved earlier this month by a federal arts commission.

• The Treasury Department's FSOC and AITO launched the AI Innovation Series, a public-private initiative with four roundtables convening financial institutions, tech firms, and regulators on high-value AI use cases. • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated, 'Leadership in AI adoption is a crucial component of economic security,' shifting regulation from constraint to enabling productivity-enhancing tech. • Deputy Assistant Secretary Christina Skinner emphasized AI's role in fraud detection, credit allocation, and operational resilience for financial stability.