Yield

• The U.S. Treasury successfully auctioned $42 billion in new 10-year notes on April 25, 2026, with the coupon rate settling at 4.38% amid continued demand from foreign central banks and domestic pension funds. • Bid-to-cover ratio reached 2.38x, slightly above the six-month average, indicating solid underlying demand despite elevated yields and concerns about federal deficit growth, which is projected to reach $1.8 trillion for fiscal year 2026. • The auction results suggest stabilization in long-term borrowing costs after weeks of volatility, potentially reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to adjust its benchmark rate at the May 2 policy meeting.

Deepening sense of deadlock despite regional diplomacy as Washington and Tehran show no signs of compromiseHopes of a breakthrough in negotiations between Iran and the US faded further on Sunday, amid a deepening sense of a deadlock in the nearly two-month-long conflict despite intense regional diplomatic activity.Washington and Tehran appear unwilling to moderate rhetoric or make concessions, and there are no negotiations scheduled that might bring the war to a definitive end. Continue reading...

• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined following the latest inflation report on April 10, 2026, easing from recent levels. • Equity futures pointed higher as markets opened, buoyed by the Treasury movement and broader optimism. • This reaction comes amid mixed Wall Street close and anticipation of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks, influencing bond and stock positioning.

• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.52% Thursday following stronger-than-anticipated producer price inflation data released by the Labor Department, pushing expectations for prolonged higher rates. • Market participants reassessed bets on future rate cuts after Fed speakers emphasized the need for additional months of restrictive policy to bring inflation back toward target levels. • The yield curve steepened significantly, with the 2-year-10-year spread widening to 87 basis points, reflecting growing uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of eventual rate cuts.

• The 10-year Treasury yield declined 18 basis points to 3.82% following the cooler-than-expected inflation reading, marking the steepest single-day drop in three months and reflecting a significant repricing of Fed rate cut probability. • Bond investors rushed into longer-duration securities as real yields compressed, with the 2-year Treasury sliding 12 basis points to 3.45%, indicating heightened expectations for near-term monetary easing. • The yield curve steepening trend accelerated, with the 10-2 spread widening to 37 basis points, suggesting market consensus that the Fed will begin cutting rates this spring while maintaining a measured approach to further reductions.

• Senators Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) announced an 'agreement in principle' with the White House on stablecoin yield payments in crypto market structure legislation on March 28, 2026. • The non-public text addresses key issues for Senate Banking Committee markup in April, following talks with banking and crypto industry stakeholders. • Coinbase expressed opposition to the proposed language, potentially impacting final negotiations.

• US S&P 500 futures hovered near flat Friday morning as investors balanced elevated borrowing costs, sticky inflation and Middle East tensions pushing energy prices. • 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.41%, pressuring credit cards and business loans, while 30-year mortgage rates reached 6.38%, making home buying costlier. • Spain's inflation at 3.3% underscores persistent living costs; interest-rate sensitive sectors like banks, real estate and small caps face tighter credit conditions.

• Negotiations on stablecoin yield provisions in the Senate crypto market structure bill have reached 99% resolution, with remaining friction being political rather than technical, according to Senator Cynthia Lummis. • The Senate Banking Committee markup is expected in late April, which creates a narrow window for the bill to complete all five sequential steps before the midterm election cycle begins dominating the floor calendar. • Senator Bernie Moreno warned that if the bill does not advance by May, digital asset legislation may not receive serious consideration again for years, creating urgency for passage.